Downloads
Each forecast cycle has a package (ZIP) with every map, the verification reports, the official-outlook comparison files and the
forecast NetCDF files, and its bulletin, summary, metadata and README as separate files. Large files are served from the GitHub release
site-files; each is named by its
content (SHA-256), so a link never changes once published.
Forecast cycles
ONDJ 2026/27 — September initialization
Package (ZIP): 93 files, 20.1 MB
- Bulletin, ONDJ 2026/27 (PDF)Outlook, interpretation, evidence, cycle record, limitations and monthly maps (3 pages)
- Summary table, ONDJ 2026/27 (CSV)Every target and view: probabilities, amounts, coverage, status and verification scores
- Metadata (JSON)Initialization, target dates, reference period, method version, freeze status and file list
- Comparison with official outlooks (report, HTML)Key findings, maps, tables, interpretation, sources and review status (reviewed content only)
- Comparison with official outlooks (JSON)Published findings, tables, metrics with their status and reasons, sources and evidence links
- Official outlook sources and extraction reviews (JSON)Source pages, download links, file hashes, retrieval times and the reviewed extraction records
JJAS 2026 — May initialization
Package (ZIP): 176 files, 31.9 MB
- Bulletin, JJAS 2026 (PDF)Outlook, interpretation, evidence, cycle record, limitations and monthly maps (3 pages)
- Summary table, JJAS 2026 (CSV)Every target and view: probabilities, amounts, coverage, status and verification scores
- Metadata (JSON)Initialization, target dates, reference period, method version, freeze status and file list
- Verification report, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, JJAS (HTML)Current report: self-contained, with maps and tables
- Superseded verification report, Jun, Jul, Aug — 10 Oct 2026 (HTML)Archived for the record; earlier domain (JJAS R1+R2 rainfall domain). Not part of the current package.
FMAM 2026 — February initialization
Package (ZIP): 270 files, 46.1 MB
- Bulletin, FMAM 2026 (PDF)Outlook, interpretation, evidence, cycle record, limitations and monthly maps (3 pages)
- Summary table, FMAM 2026 (CSV)Every target and view: probabilities, amounts, coverage, status and verification scores
- Metadata (JSON)Initialization, target dates, reference period, method version, freeze status and file list
- Verification report, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, FMAM (HTML)Current report: self-contained, with maps and tables
- Comparison with official outlooks (report, HTML)Key findings, maps, tables, interpretation, sources and review status (reviewed content only)
- Comparison with official outlooks (JSON)Published findings, tables, metrics with their status and reasons, sources and evidence links
- Official outlook sources and extraction reviews (JSON)Source pages, download links, file hashes, retrieval times and the reviewed extraction records
FMAM 2026 — January initialization
Package (ZIP): 270 files, 46.0 MB
- Bulletin, FMAM 2026 (PDF)Outlook, interpretation, evidence, cycle record, limitations and monthly maps (3 pages)
- Summary table, FMAM 2026 (CSV)Every target and view: probabilities, amounts, coverage, status and verification scores
- Metadata (JSON)Initialization, target dates, reference period, method version, freeze status and file list
- Verification report, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, FMAM (HTML)Current report: self-contained, with maps and tables
- Comparison with official outlooks (report, HTML)Key findings, maps, tables, interpretation, sources and review status (reviewed content only)
- Comparison with official outlooks (JSON)Published findings, tables, metrics with their status and reasons, sources and evidence links
- Official outlook sources and extraction reviews (JSON)Source pages, download links, file hashes, retrieval times and the reviewed extraction records
Every file
100 files, 314.9 MB, with their checksums.
Forecast · FMAM 2026 — January initialization
| File | Size | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|
| fmam2026_comparison.json fmam2026_comparison.json | 70 kB | — |
| fmam2026_comparison_report.html fmam2026_comparison_report.html | 27 kB | — |
| fmam2026_comparison_sources.json fmam2026_comparison_sources.json | 20 kB | — |
| fmam2026_metadata.json fmam2026_metadata.json | 23 kB | — |
| fmam2026_summary.csv fmam2026_summary.csv | 4 kB | — |
| fmam2026_verification_report_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_FMAM.html fmam2026_verification_report_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_FMAM.html | 1.7 MB | — |
| fmam2026feb_comparison.json fmam2026feb_comparison.json | 69 kB | — |
| fmam2026feb_comparison_report.html fmam2026feb_comparison_report.html | 27 kB | — |
| fmam2026feb_comparison_sources.json fmam2026feb_comparison_sources.json | 20 kB | — |
| fmam2026feb_metadata.json fmam2026feb_metadata.json | 23 kB | — |
| fmam2026feb_summary.csv fmam2026feb_summary.csv | 4 kB | — |
| fmam2026feb_verification_report_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_FMAM.html fmam2026feb_verification_report_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_FMAM.html | 1.7 MB | — |
| fmam2026feb_package.zip fmam2026feb_package.zip | 46.1 MB | 199dafa570587e73… |
| fmam2026feb_bulletin.pdf fmam2026feb_bulletin.pdf | 0.3 MB | 40f445410ce719b7… |
| fmam2026_package.zip fmam2026_package.zip | 46.0 MB | a6ed147b09eccfd6… |
| fmam2026_bulletin.pdf fmam2026_bulletin.pdf | 0.3 MB | c0956696e48c35b0… |
Forecast · JJAS 2026 — May initialization
| File | Size | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|
| jjas2026_verification_report_Jun_Jul_Aug_superseded_20261010.html archive/jjas2026_verification_report_Jun_Jul_Aug_superseded_20261010.html | 1.0 MB | — |
| jjas2026_metadata.json jjas2026_metadata.json | 16 kB | — |
| jjas2026_summary.csv jjas2026_summary.csv | 2 kB | — |
| jjas2026_verification_report_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep_JJAS.html jjas2026_verification_report_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep_JJAS.html | 1.7 MB | — |
| jjas2026_package.zip jjas2026_package.zip | 31.9 MB | 0c5c528b495c72d2… |
| jjas2026_bulletin.pdf jjas2026_bulletin.pdf | 0.3 MB | 3c6aa834c2781393… |
Forecast · ONDJ 2026/27 — September initialization
| File | Size | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|
| ondj2026_comparison.json ondj2026_comparison.json | 42 kB | — |
| ondj2026_comparison_report.html ondj2026_comparison_report.html | 21 kB | — |
| ondj2026_comparison_sources.json ondj2026_comparison_sources.json | 18 kB | — |
| ondj2026_metadata.json ondj2026_metadata.json | 9 kB | — |
| ondj2026_summary.csv ondj2026_summary.csv | 2 kB | — |
| ondj2026_bulletin.pdf ondj2026_bulletin.pdf | 0.3 MB | 5d11018b693d6670… |
| ondj2026_package.zip ondj2026_package.zip | 20.1 MB | d022f001dc8d9570… |
Bias correction · feb_fmam
| File | Size | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|
| Output manifest: SHA-256 of every screening output file (JSON) bias/feb_fmam/manifest.json | 3 kB | — |
| Shadow forecast Feb 2026 (NetCDF; not published) bias/feb_fmam/validation/2026/shadow_sqrt_mvs_2026_Feb.nc | 42 kB | — |
| MVS ratio-limit study: confirmation (JSON) bias/feb_fmam/ratio_limits/confirmation/confirmation.json | 1.2 MB | 2d3ffb5084da14ad… |
| MVS ratio-limit study: screening (JSON) bias/feb_fmam/ratio_limits/benchmark.json | 2.0 MB | 4c91f25448b3d01d… |
| Independent validation record: every method scored on the seasons after the benchmark (JSON) bias/feb_fmam/validation_record.json | 0.1 MB | 7e8d1be1e676094f… |
| Corrected forecast members of every method (NetCDF) bias/feb_fmam/forecast_2026_members.nc | 18.7 MB | 7f53db565787a8b9… |
| Screening: all scores, per-year values, diagnostics and screening statistics (JSON) bias/feb_fmam/benchmark.json | 7.3 MB | a687a8b437bd95c4… |
| Per-cell scores and distribution ratios (NetCDF) bias/feb_fmam/cell_scores_full_loyo.nc | 4.0 MB | b43b2b59cadc61c0… |
| Confirmation: full-pipeline scores, selections and tests (JSON) bias/feb_fmam/confirmation/confirmation.json | 3.5 MB | f7428bf3d807f0dd… |
Bias correction · jan_fmam
| File | Size | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|
| Output manifest: SHA-256 of every screening output file (JSON) bias/jan_fmam/manifest.json | 3 kB | — |
| Independent validation record: every method scored on the seasons after the benchmark (JSON) bias/jan_fmam/validation_record.json | 0.1 MB | 439d70991060db70… |
| Per-cell scores and distribution ratios (NetCDF) bias/jan_fmam/cell_scores_full_loyo.nc | 4.0 MB | 5d7cd4a3fbf12754… |
| Screening: all scores, per-year values, diagnostics and screening statistics (JSON) bias/jan_fmam/benchmark.json | 7.3 MB | 8b8a955a526f51f1… |
| Corrected forecast members of every method (NetCDF) bias/jan_fmam/forecast_2026_members.nc | 18.7 MB | ae04206743a9908b… |
| Confirmation: full-pipeline scores, selections and tests (JSON) bias/jan_fmam/confirmation/confirmation.json | 3.5 MB | be4f7930499900ac… |
| MVS ratio-limit study: screening (JSON) bias/jan_fmam/ratio_limits/benchmark.json | 2.0 MB | d95a824da80d944c… |
| MVS ratio-limit study: confirmation (JSON) bias/jan_fmam/ratio_limits/confirmation/confirmation.json | 1.2 MB | f9bc7517fcbf43d8… |
Bias correction · may_jjas
| File | Size | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|
| Output manifest: SHA-256 of every screening output file (JSON) bias/may_jjas/manifest.json | 3 kB | — |
| Confirmation: full-pipeline scores, selections and tests (JSON) bias/may_jjas/confirmation/confirmation.json | 3.5 MB | 0903cc72196ac966… |
| Per-cell scores and distribution ratios (NetCDF) bias/may_jjas/cell_scores_full_loyo.nc | 4.0 MB | 32b99f7844c07f16… |
| Corrected forecast members of every method (NetCDF) bias/may_jjas/forecast_2026_members.nc | 18.8 MB | 46a8bda99ffaf0b3… |
| Screening: all scores, per-year values, diagnostics and screening statistics (JSON) bias/may_jjas/benchmark.json | 7.2 MB | 859abb70d9ae0a52… |
| Independent validation record: every method scored on the seasons after the benchmark (JSON) bias/may_jjas/validation_record.json | 0.1 MB | 8e6447358ddb871e… |
| MVS ratio-limit study: confirmation (JSON) bias/may_jjas/ratio_limits/confirmation/confirmation.json | 1.2 MB | d965155fc957c20d… |
| MVS ratio-limit study: screening (JSON) bias/may_jjas/ratio_limits/benchmark.json | 1.9 MB | dda3247f131bcbff… |
Bias correction · recommendations.json
| File | Size | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|
| Suggested methods for every cycle, target and product, with the rule and the evidence (JSON) bias/recommendations.json | 28 kB | — |
Bias correction · sep_ondj
| File | Size | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|
| Output manifest: SHA-256 of every screening output file (JSON) bias/sep_ondj/manifest.json | 3 kB | — |
| Independent validation record: every method scored on the seasons after the benchmark (JSON) bias/sep_ondj/validation_record.json | 46 kB | — |
| Per-cell scores and distribution ratios (NetCDF) bias/sep_ondj/cell_scores_full_loyo.nc | 4.1 MB | 06dcbb6ddab6c8e4… |
| Screening: all scores, per-year values, diagnostics and screening statistics (JSON) bias/sep_ondj/benchmark.json | 7.1 MB | 36ea62680583aa10… |
| MVS ratio-limit study: confirmation (JSON) bias/sep_ondj/ratio_limits/confirmation/confirmation.json | 1.2 MB | 967dca10b242773a… |
| Confirmation: full-pipeline scores, selections and tests (JSON) bias/sep_ondj/confirmation/confirmation.json | 3.4 MB | 979ba174092cedaa… |
| MVS ratio-limit study: screening (JSON) bias/sep_ondj/ratio_limits/benchmark.json | 1.9 MB | a94ea6949db20f7c… |
| Corrected forecast members of every method (NetCDF) bias/sep_ondj/forecast_2026_members.nc | 18.2 MB | ff492e8b233576ec… |
Other
| File | Size | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|
| downloads page index.html | 6 kB | — |
Probability calibration · feb_fmam
| File | Size | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|
| Shadow amounts and ranges, Apr 2026 (NetCDF; not a published forecast) probcal/feb_fmam/amount_shadow/2026/shadow_emos_csg_2026_Apr.nc | 0.2 MB | 011fac2ed522d976… |
| Phase 3, rainfall-distribution models (JSON) probcal/feb_fmam/phase3/benchmark.json | 0.6 MB | 22cd980f59e83172… |
| Phase 2, binary calibrators (JSON) probcal/feb_fmam/phase2_binary/benchmark.json | 1.0 MB | 6ce94407e1c30bdc… |
| Shadow amounts and ranges, Mar 2026 (NetCDF; not a published forecast) probcal/feb_fmam/amount_shadow/2026/shadow_emos_csg_2026_Mar.nc | 0.2 MB | 9989bc257ea0d9dc… |
| Shadow amounts and ranges, Feb 2026 (NetCDF; not a published forecast) probcal/feb_fmam/amount_shadow/2026/shadow_emos_csg_2026_Feb.nc | 0.2 MB | a8eb62918efd689f… |
| Phase 1: all scores, per-year values, tests and fitted parameters (JSON) probcal/feb_fmam/benchmark.json | 1.3 MB | b7a4aa1d76eee86f… |
| Shadow amounts and ranges, FMAM 2026 (NetCDF; not a published forecast) probcal/feb_fmam/amount_shadow/2026/shadow_emos_csg_2026_FMAM.nc | 0.2 MB | c80828e150d22ff1… |
| Phase 2, rainfall-distribution models (JSON) probcal/feb_fmam/distribution/benchmark.json | 0.6 MB | df083f0fab76060f… |
| Shadow amounts and ranges, May 2026 (NetCDF; not a published forecast) probcal/feb_fmam/amount_shadow/2026/shadow_emos_csg_2026_May.nc | 0.2 MB | eaf935c40db7e465… |
Probability calibration · jan_fmam
| File | Size | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|
| Shadow amounts and ranges, Mar 2026 (NetCDF; not a published forecast) probcal/jan_fmam/amount_shadow/2026/shadow_emos_csg_2026_Mar.nc | 0.2 MB | 147177b969b35c8e… |
| Shadow amounts and ranges, Apr 2026 (NetCDF; not a published forecast) probcal/jan_fmam/amount_shadow/2026/shadow_emos_csg_2026_Apr.nc | 0.2 MB | 2cb89af40a391793… |
| Shadow amounts and ranges, FMAM 2026 (NetCDF; not a published forecast) probcal/jan_fmam/amount_shadow/2026/shadow_emos_csg_2026_FMAM.nc | 0.2 MB | 2d2d5f2948d2a82c… |
| Phase 1: all scores, per-year values, tests and fitted parameters (JSON) probcal/jan_fmam/benchmark.json | 1.3 MB | 742ff753c4555c19… |
| Phase 3, rainfall-distribution models (JSON) probcal/jan_fmam/phase3/benchmark.json | 0.6 MB | b3e57118123cab41… |
| Phase 2, rainfall-distribution models (JSON) probcal/jan_fmam/distribution/benchmark.json | 0.6 MB | b50420857edc41a7… |
| Phase 2, binary calibrators (JSON) probcal/jan_fmam/phase2_binary/benchmark.json | 1.0 MB | cf93fc76c85f9f65… |
| Shadow amounts and ranges, May 2026 (NetCDF; not a published forecast) probcal/jan_fmam/amount_shadow/2026/shadow_emos_csg_2026_May.nc | 0.2 MB | d629d0df0aaf64fc… |
| Shadow amounts and ranges, Feb 2026 (NetCDF; not a published forecast) probcal/jan_fmam/amount_shadow/2026/shadow_emos_csg_2026_Feb.nc | 0.1 MB | fdbb79d11e807779… |
Probability calibration · may_jjas
| File | Size | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|
| Phase 2, binary calibrators (JSON) probcal/may_jjas/phase2_binary/benchmark.json | 1.0 MB | 2b6318c2abf9082a… |
| Shadow amounts and ranges, JJAS 2026 (NetCDF; not a published forecast) probcal/may_jjas/amount_shadow/2026/shadow_emos_csg_2026_JJAS.nc | 0.2 MB | 36803aae1ed78e06… |
| Shadow amounts and ranges, Jun 2026 (NetCDF; not a published forecast) probcal/may_jjas/amount_shadow/2026/shadow_emos_csg_2026_Jun.nc | 0.2 MB | 584fa8a59e6f3f3e… |
| Shadow amounts and ranges, Sep 2026 (NetCDF; not a published forecast) probcal/may_jjas/amount_shadow/2026/shadow_emos_csg_2026_Sep.nc | 0.2 MB | 8512baebb903dd7e… |
| Phase 2, rainfall-distribution models (JSON) probcal/may_jjas/distribution/benchmark.json | 0.6 MB | 8900f806db831dcd… |
| Phase 1: all scores, per-year values, tests and fitted parameters (JSON) probcal/may_jjas/benchmark.json | 1.3 MB | 8e1ae1898fd3af84… |
| Shadow amounts and ranges, Jul 2026 (NetCDF; not a published forecast) probcal/may_jjas/amount_shadow/2026/shadow_emos_csg_2026_Jul.nc | 0.2 MB | c7a70e02b8acb536… |
| Phase 3, rainfall-distribution models (JSON) probcal/may_jjas/phase3/benchmark.json | 0.6 MB | c7bff898bf815dc1… |
| Shadow amounts and ranges, Aug 2026 (NetCDF; not a published forecast) probcal/may_jjas/amount_shadow/2026/shadow_emos_csg_2026_Aug.nc | 0.2 MB | e8a1f9fe363caa20… |
Probability calibration · sep_ondj
| File | Size | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|
| Shadow amounts and ranges, ONDJ 2026 (NetCDF; not a published forecast) probcal/sep_ondj/amount_shadow/2026/shadow_emos_csg_2026_ONDJ.nc | 0.1 MB | 5d5beb985336731c… |
| Phase 2, rainfall-distribution models (JSON) probcal/sep_ondj/distribution/benchmark.json | 0.6 MB | 7510e973bdbacde6… |
| Shadow amounts and ranges, Dec 2026 (NetCDF; not a published forecast) probcal/sep_ondj/amount_shadow/2026/shadow_emos_csg_2026_Dec.nc | 0.1 MB | 894da258f8e9e3d6… |
| Phase 1: all scores, per-year values, tests and fitted parameters (JSON) probcal/sep_ondj/benchmark.json | 1.3 MB | 9315f685c48335ec… |
| Shadow amounts and ranges, Oct 2026 (NetCDF; not a published forecast) probcal/sep_ondj/amount_shadow/2026/shadow_emos_csg_2026_Oct.nc | 0.1 MB | 94348bcb140e1443… |
| Phase 2, binary calibrators (JSON) probcal/sep_ondj/phase2_binary/benchmark.json | 1.0 MB | 9f1ff8946cc74bc2… |
| Shadow amounts and ranges, Jan 2026 (NetCDF; not a published forecast) probcal/sep_ondj/amount_shadow/2026/shadow_emos_csg_2026_Jan.nc | 0.1 MB | b25e9cafd7d507a0… |
| Shadow amounts and ranges, Nov 2026 (NetCDF; not a published forecast) probcal/sep_ondj/amount_shadow/2026/shadow_emos_csg_2026_Nov.nc | 0.1 MB | d45d1eb3cfc767c0… |
| Phase 3, rainfall-distribution models (JSON) probcal/sep_ondj/phase3/benchmark.json | 0.6 MB | f266f25dfc54e36c… |