Season 2026-10-01 to 2027-01-31 · areas: All Ethiopia; ONDJ R3 (Deyr) rainfall domain · built from reviewed extractions only (rules v2, 2026-10-11). Research reconstruction; not an official EMI or ICPAC forecast. The comparison describes agreement between outlooks, not which is more accurate.
Only where both outlooks show a favoured category.
| Area | Compared area (share of the analysed area) | Agreement within it | Opposite within it |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Ethiopia | 46% | 93.6% | 5.6% |
| ONDJ R3 (Deyr) rainfall domain | >99% | 99.8% | 0.0% |
| Zone | Official below / near / above | Platform over the whole zone (region) | Platform near the arrow (±0.5°) | Relationship near the arrow | Arrow sample vs the ONDJ R3 (Deyr) rainfall domain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zone III | 20% / 25% / 55% | 48% / 25% / 27% Opposing categories | 53% / 29% / 18% | Opposing categories | Outside the domain |
| Zone VI | 15% / 25% / 60% | 19% / 25% / 56% Same category | 19% / 24% / 57% | Same category | Partly overlaps the domain — 44% of sample cells |
| Zone VII | 25% / 15% / 60% | 22% / 26% / 52% Same category | 20% / 22% / 58% | Same category | Partly overlaps the domain — 69% of sample cells |
| Zone VIII | 10% / 15% / 75% | 16% / 25% / 59% Same category | 16% / 30% / 54% | Same category | Entire sample in the domain |
Platform values are area means of local probabilities: over the whole zone (EMI homogeneous rainfall region as published in 2013, assumed unchanged) where reviewed, and over the ±0.5° sample around each arrow tip. Percentages are rounded to add up to 100%.
| Location | ICPAC (favoured category, printed interval) | Platform below / near / above | Relationship |
|---|---|---|---|
| Near zone III arrow Outside the domain | no forecast category shown 100% of the sample grey (no forecast category shown) | 53% / 29% / 18% | Not comparable: ICPAC shows no forecast category here |
| Near zone VI arrow Partly overlaps the domain — 44% of sample cells | Above normal 70–80% 31% of the sample grey (no forecast category shown) | 19% / 24% / 57% | Same category |
| Near zone VII arrow Partly overlaps the domain — 69% of sample cells | Above normal 60–70% | 20% / 22% / 58% | Same category |
| Near zone VIII arrow Entire sample in the domain | Above normal 70–80% 75% of shown cells; also Above normal 80–90% (25%) | 16% / 30% / 54% | Same category |
| All Ethiopia | Above normal (most often 70–80%) shown on 46% of the area; 54% grey (no forecast category shown) | 27% / 27% / 46% | Same category (where both show a category) |
| ONDJ R3 (Deyr) rainfall domain | Above normal (most often 70–80%) shown on >99% of the area; <1% grey (no forecast category shown) | 16% / 26% / 58% | Same category (where both show a category) |
ICPAC publishes only the favoured category and its probability interval (the other two categories are not published), for 2026-10-01 to 2026-12-31; the platform covers 2026-10-01 to 2027-01-31. Locations are the EMI arrow-tip boxes or the digitized EMI zones; platform values are area means of local probabilities over each location or area.
The platform favours below-normal rainfall near the arrow of EMI zone III, while the EMI outlook favours above-normal rainfall. This indicates disagreement in the favoured rainfall category. EMI prints 20% / 25% / 55% (below / near / above); the platform's area mean of local probabilities in the sampled neighbourhood is 53% / 29% / 18%. Over the whole zone (the EMI Southwest rainfall region), the platform area mean is 48% / 25% / 27%: opposing categories.
Both outlooks favour wetter-than-normal conditions near the arrow of EMI zone VI. EMI prints 15% / 25% / 60% (below / near / above); the platform's area mean of local probabilities in the sampled neighbourhood is 19% / 24% / 57%. Over the whole zone (the EMI South Highland rainfall region), the platform area mean is 19% / 25% / 56%: same category.
Both outlooks favour wetter-than-normal conditions near the arrow of EMI zone VII. EMI prints 25% / 15% / 60% (below / near / above); the platform's area mean of local probabilities in the sampled neighbourhood is 20% / 22% / 58%. Over the whole zone (the EMI South rainfall region), the platform area mean is 22% / 26% / 52%: same category.
Both outlooks favour wetter-than-normal conditions near the arrow of EMI zone VIII. EMI prints 10% / 15% / 75% (below / near / above); the platform's area mean of local probabilities in the sampled neighbourhood is 16% / 30% / 54%. Over the whole zone (the EMI South-Southeast lowlands rainfall region), the platform area mean is 16% / 25% / 59%: same category.
For every EMI zone, the platform value near the arrow is the area mean of local probabilities within ±0.5° of the arrow tip, not the complete EMI zone: the figure publishes no zone boundaries and no reference period, so exact zone probability differences are not calculated.
Above-normal rainfall is the predominant tendency in both outlooks over their shared displayed area in Ethiopia, with localized disagreement. ICPAC shows a favoured category on 46% of Ethiopia and no forecast category shown (the legend does not explain the grey areas) on 54%; where it shows one it favours above normal on >99%, most often at 70-80% and 80-90%. The platform favours above normal on 69% and below normal on 16% of Ethiopia. There is category agreement of 93.6% within the compared area, which covers 46% of the analysed national area; opposite categories (above vs below) on 6% of the compared area. ICPAC publishes only the favoured category and its probability interval, so probabilities are not differenced. The official outlook covers Oct 2026–Dec 2026 and the platform Oct 2026–Jan 2027 (Jan 2027 only in the platform), so this compares spatial tendencies, not probabilities for the same seasonal event.
Above-normal rainfall is the predominant tendency in both outlooks over their shared displayed area in the ONDJ R3 (Deyr) rainfall domain, with localized disagreement. ICPAC shows a favoured category on >99% of the ONDJ R3 (Deyr) rainfall domain and no forecast category shown (the legend does not explain the grey areas) on <1%; where it shows one it favours above normal on 100%, most often at 70-80% and 80-90%. The platform favours above normal on >99% and below normal on 0% of the ONDJ R3 (Deyr) rainfall domain. There is category agreement of 99.8% within the compared area, which covers >99% of the analysed domain. ICPAC publishes only the favoured category and its probability interval, so probabilities are not differenced. The official outlook covers Oct 2026–Dec 2026 and the platform Oct 2026–Jan 2027 (Jan 2027 only in the platform), so this compares spatial tendencies, not probabilities for the same seasonal event.
Not calculated: rainfall-anomaly differences, because no official rainfall-amount anomaly product was found in the checked ICPAC and EMI products; which forecast is more accurate, because that needs observations and a separate verification design (see Verification); same-event probability differences, because the target windows or spatial supports differ and ICPAC publishes only favoured-category intervals.
| Product | Rainfall forecast - October - December 2026_Update - IGAD Region |
|---|---|
| Target period | 2026-10-01 to 2026-12-31 |
| Issue date | not stated by the provider |
| Reference period | not stated |
| Retrieved | 2026-10-09 |
| Latest check | Checked 2026-10-09: unchanged |
| Content hash (SHA-256) | 38789cddd2e31c49b72ec97b821856d1d82d100e75971aef173b8f28d276afa6 |
| Extraction | validated |
| Review | validated by Yonas 1, 2026-10-09 |
| Source page | https://www.icpac.net/seasonal-forecast/october-december-2026_update/?region=1&resource_type=27 |
| Original file | https://www.icpac.net/media/images/GHA-PRCP.original.png |
Above-normal rainfall is likely across most of the region, with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south-eastern Ethiopia.
Across much of the remaining region, the probability of above-normal rainfall is generally in the range of 50–70%.
— ICPAC
| Product | Kiremt 2026 Assessment and Bega 2026_27 Outlook Hydro met Bulletin |
|---|---|
| Target period | 2026-10-01 to 2027-01-31 |
| Issue date | not stated by the provider |
| Reference period | not stated |
| Retrieved | 2026-10-09 |
| Latest check | Checked 2026-10-09: unchanged; a matching page without a document yet was skipped (Bega 2026/27 Seasonal Climate Forecast) |
| Content hash (SHA-256) | d55c4d39500d13a9da842a575f735bd07cf2ed08ac924ec8012e197a66e921a1 |
| Extraction | validated |
| Review | validated by yonas 1, 2026-10-09 |
| Source page | https://www.ethiomet.gov.et/products/seasonal-hydromet-bulletin/kiremt-2026-assessment-and-bega-2026_27-hydro-met-bulletin/ |
| Original file | https://www.ethiomet.gov.et/documents/796/Kiremt_2026_Assesment_and_Bega_2026_27_Outlook_hydromet_Bulletin_pVHz8Fp.pdf |
October: Humid to wet conditions across southern and southwestern catchments Baro-Akobo, Wabi Shebelle, Genale Dawa, Ogaden, and Abay support initial surface water accumulation.
November: Moisture shifts southward; wet to very wet conditions continue in Genale Dawa, Wabi Shebelle, Baro- Akobo, Ogaden, and parts of Abay Rift Valley, while northern areas dry out.
December: Dry to arid conditions dominate northern, central, and eastern basins Afar-Denakil, Aysha, middle upper Abay, Tekeze, and Awash. Sub-humid to wet levels persist in Omo-Gibe, Rift Valley, Baro-Akobo, Genale Dawa, Wabi Shebelle, and middle lower Ogaden.
January: Arid conditions expand across most northern, central, and eastern catchments. Sub-humid to wet conditions remain confined to Omo-Gibe, Rift Valley, and upper Genale Dawa.
— EMI
| Comparison | Where | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| display official probabilities | III | available | |
| favoured category relationship | III | available | reviewed visual (arrow-tip neighbourhood) |
| zone mean probability | III | available | EMI homogeneous rainfall regions as published in 2013 (digitized) |
| same event probability difference | III | unavailable | zone geometry requires alignment; official reference period unknown |
| display official probabilities | VI | available | |
| favoured category relationship | VI | available | reviewed visual (arrow-tip neighbourhood) |
| zone mean probability | VI | available | EMI homogeneous rainfall regions as published in 2013 (digitized) |
| same event probability difference | VI | unavailable | zone geometry requires alignment; official reference period unknown |
| display official probabilities | VII | available | |
| favoured category relationship | VII | available | reviewed visual (arrow-tip neighbourhood) |
| zone mean probability | VII | available | EMI homogeneous rainfall regions as published in 2013 (digitized) |
| same event probability difference | VII | unavailable | zone geometry requires alignment; official reference period unknown |
| display official probabilities | VIII | available | |
| favoured category relationship | VIII | available | reviewed visual (arrow-tip neighbourhood) |
| zone mean probability | VIII | available | EMI homogeneous rainfall regions as published in 2013 (digitized) |
| same event probability difference | VIII | unavailable | zone geometry requires alignment; official reference period unknown |
| mapped category agreement | All Ethiopia | available | reviewed digitization |
| mapped category agreement | ONDJ R3 (Deyr) rainfall domain | available | reviewed digitization |
| same event probability difference | — | unavailable | target window mismatch; official publishes only favoured category interval |
| rainfall anomaly difference | — | unavailable | official amount anomaly not found in checked products |
| forecast accuracy | — | unavailable | out of scope: needs observations and a separate verification design (see the Verification section) |