{
 "cycle": "ONDJ 2026/27",
 "initialization": "2026-09-01",
 "initialization_month": "September",
 "built_utc": "2026-10-19 12:20 UTC",
 "release": "2026-10-19.0",
 "code_version": "17707ef",
 "repository": "https://github.com/YonSci/calibrated_seasonal_rainfall",
 "record": {
  "Model initialization": "1 September 2026 · ECMWF SEAS5 (system 51), 51 members",
  "Target period": "1 Oct 2026 – 31 Jan 2027",
  "Forecast record": "Frozen 10 Oct 2026 (after the target period began, before this project downloaded its observations; SHA-256 manifest)",
  "Publication status": "Research reconstruction: produced after the initialization date with the published method; not an official EMI or ICPAC forecast",
  "Reference period": "CHIRPS v3.0 ONDJ 1993/94–2024/25 (32 seasons)",
  "Observations processed through": "None yet",
  "CHIRPS archive": "Official CHIRPS v3.0 monthly listing checked 19 Oct 2026: monthly files through Sep 2026",
  "Verification last run": "Not run",
  "Method / version": "Shared climatology blend (λ = 0.18 for ONDJ) · code 17707ef"
 },
 "rainfall_domain": {
  "view": "ondj_rainfall_domain",
  "definition": "Fixed 1993-2025 descriptive domain (Deyr / Hagaya): rainfall regime R3 (GitHub-refined classification of the CHIRPS daily climatology) with ONDJ climatological CHIRPS rainfall >=30 mm; patches smaller than 3 cells removed. Scientific masking walkthrough logic; no onset gate. The same domain is used for the season and each of its months."
 },
 "reference_period": "1993/94–2024/25",
 "targets": [
  {
   "target": "ONDJ 2026/27",
   "start": "2026-10-01",
   "end": "2027-01-31",
   "status": {
    "code": "ongoing",
    "text": "Target period ongoing (ends 31 Jan 2027)"
   },
   "verified_areas": []
  },
  {
   "target": "Oct 2026",
   "start": "2026-10-01",
   "end": "2026-10-31",
   "status": {
    "code": "ongoing",
    "text": "Target period ongoing (ends 31 Oct 2026)"
   },
   "verified_areas": []
  },
  {
   "target": "Nov 2026",
   "start": "2026-11-01",
   "end": "2026-11-30",
   "status": {
    "code": "not_started",
    "text": "Target period starts 1 Nov 2026"
   },
   "verified_areas": []
  },
  {
   "target": "Dec 2026",
   "start": "2026-12-01",
   "end": "2026-12-31",
   "status": {
    "code": "not_started",
    "text": "Target period starts 1 Dec 2026"
   },
   "verified_areas": []
  },
  {
   "target": "Jan 2027",
   "start": "2027-01-01",
   "end": "2027-01-31",
   "status": {
    "code": "not_started",
    "text": "Target period starts 1 Jan 2027"
   },
   "verified_areas": []
  }
 ],
 "files": [
  "README.txt",
  "metadata.json",
  "summary.csv",
  "bulletin.pdf",
  "maps/forecast/ONDJ/all_ethiopia/tercile_outlook.png",
  "maps/forecast/ONDJ/all_ethiopia/rainfall_total_mm.png",
  "maps/forecast/ONDJ/all_ethiopia/rainfall_anomaly_mm.png",
  "maps/forecast/ONDJ/all_ethiopia/rainfall_anomaly_percent.png",
  "maps/forecast/ONDJ/all_ethiopia/tercile_outlook_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/ONDJ/all_ethiopia/rainfall_total_mm_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/ONDJ/all_ethiopia/rainfall_anomaly_mm_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/ONDJ/all_ethiopia/rainfall_anomaly_percent_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/ONDJ/ondj_rainfall_domain/tercile_outlook.png",
  "maps/forecast/ONDJ/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_total_mm.png",
  "maps/forecast/ONDJ/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_anomaly_mm.png",
  "maps/forecast/ONDJ/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_anomaly_percent.png",
  "maps/forecast/ONDJ/ondj_rainfall_domain/tercile_outlook_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/ONDJ/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_total_mm_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/ONDJ/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_anomaly_mm_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/ONDJ/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_anomaly_percent_cells.png",
  "data/ONDJ_forecast_2026.nc",
  "maps/forecast/Oct/all_ethiopia/tercile_outlook.png",
  "maps/forecast/Oct/all_ethiopia/rainfall_total_mm.png",
  "maps/forecast/Oct/all_ethiopia/rainfall_anomaly_mm.png",
  "maps/forecast/Oct/all_ethiopia/rainfall_anomaly_percent.png",
  "maps/forecast/Oct/all_ethiopia/tercile_outlook_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Oct/all_ethiopia/rainfall_total_mm_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Oct/all_ethiopia/rainfall_anomaly_mm_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Oct/all_ethiopia/rainfall_anomaly_percent_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Oct/ondj_rainfall_domain/tercile_outlook.png",
  "maps/forecast/Oct/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_total_mm.png",
  "maps/forecast/Oct/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_anomaly_mm.png",
  "maps/forecast/Oct/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_anomaly_percent.png",
  "maps/forecast/Oct/ondj_rainfall_domain/tercile_outlook_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Oct/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_total_mm_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Oct/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_anomaly_mm_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Oct/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_anomaly_percent_cells.png",
  "data/Oct_forecast_2026.nc",
  "maps/forecast/Nov/all_ethiopia/tercile_outlook.png",
  "maps/forecast/Nov/all_ethiopia/rainfall_total_mm.png",
  "maps/forecast/Nov/all_ethiopia/rainfall_anomaly_mm.png",
  "maps/forecast/Nov/all_ethiopia/rainfall_anomaly_percent.png",
  "maps/forecast/Nov/all_ethiopia/tercile_outlook_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Nov/all_ethiopia/rainfall_total_mm_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Nov/all_ethiopia/rainfall_anomaly_mm_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Nov/all_ethiopia/rainfall_anomaly_percent_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Nov/ondj_rainfall_domain/tercile_outlook.png",
  "maps/forecast/Nov/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_total_mm.png",
  "maps/forecast/Nov/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_anomaly_mm.png",
  "maps/forecast/Nov/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_anomaly_percent.png",
  "maps/forecast/Nov/ondj_rainfall_domain/tercile_outlook_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Nov/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_total_mm_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Nov/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_anomaly_mm_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Nov/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_anomaly_percent_cells.png",
  "data/Nov_forecast_2026.nc",
  "maps/forecast/Dec/all_ethiopia/tercile_outlook.png",
  "maps/forecast/Dec/all_ethiopia/rainfall_total_mm.png",
  "maps/forecast/Dec/all_ethiopia/rainfall_anomaly_mm.png",
  "maps/forecast/Dec/all_ethiopia/rainfall_anomaly_percent.png",
  "maps/forecast/Dec/all_ethiopia/tercile_outlook_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Dec/all_ethiopia/rainfall_total_mm_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Dec/all_ethiopia/rainfall_anomaly_mm_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Dec/all_ethiopia/rainfall_anomaly_percent_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Dec/ondj_rainfall_domain/tercile_outlook.png",
  "maps/forecast/Dec/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_total_mm.png",
  "maps/forecast/Dec/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_anomaly_mm.png",
  "maps/forecast/Dec/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_anomaly_percent.png",
  "maps/forecast/Dec/ondj_rainfall_domain/tercile_outlook_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Dec/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_total_mm_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Dec/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_anomaly_mm_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Dec/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_anomaly_percent_cells.png",
  "data/Dec_forecast_2026.nc",
  "maps/forecast/Jan/all_ethiopia/tercile_outlook.png",
  "maps/forecast/Jan/all_ethiopia/rainfall_total_mm.png",
  "maps/forecast/Jan/all_ethiopia/rainfall_anomaly_mm.png",
  "maps/forecast/Jan/all_ethiopia/rainfall_anomaly_percent.png",
  "maps/forecast/Jan/all_ethiopia/tercile_outlook_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Jan/all_ethiopia/rainfall_total_mm_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Jan/all_ethiopia/rainfall_anomaly_mm_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Jan/all_ethiopia/rainfall_anomaly_percent_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Jan/ondj_rainfall_domain/tercile_outlook.png",
  "maps/forecast/Jan/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_total_mm.png",
  "maps/forecast/Jan/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_anomaly_mm.png",
  "maps/forecast/Jan/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_anomaly_percent.png",
  "maps/forecast/Jan/ondj_rainfall_domain/tercile_outlook_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Jan/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_total_mm_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Jan/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_anomaly_mm_cells.png",
  "maps/forecast/Jan/ondj_rainfall_domain/rainfall_anomaly_percent_cells.png",
  "data/Jan_forecast_2026.nc",
  "comparison/comparison.json",
  "comparison/sources_and_reviews.json",
  "comparison/figures/icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall.png",
  "comparison/figures/emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_page21_figure.jpg",
  "comparison/figures/emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_anchors.png",
  "comparison/figures/emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_regions.png",
  "comparison/figures/icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_comparison.png",
  "comparison/report.html"
 ],
 "status": "Research reconstruction: produced after the initialization date with the published method; not an official EMI or ICPAC forecast",
 "issue": {
  "issued": false,
  "date": null,
  "tag": null,
  "release_url": null
 }
}