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Seasonal Rainfall Outlook Platform
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Outlook
Verification
Skill
Research
Which methods are better
Overview: selection criteria, the method for each season, comparison tables
Method selection
The approach the evidence supports, per season and target
Bias correction
Rainfall-amount corrections against the operational MVS
Probability calibration
Phases 1–3 against the published probabilities
Amount & range shadow
EMOS medians and 10–90% ranges, scored season by season
Statistical downscaling
MOS: canonical correlation and principal component regression (CPT approach)
Leung–Dirichlet calibration
Member-wise Leung correction + Dirichlet, against the published pipeline
About
Methods & data
Data, workflow, equations, method choices, limitations
Rainfall domains
Season climatology and the forecast domains
Glossary
The scores and terms in one sentence each
Releases
Change log and archived releases
Classic page
The previous single-page site, unchanged
Downloads
Rainfall domains
Open the rainfall-domain review