{
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   "narrative": [
    {
     "text": "Above-normal rainfall is likely across most of the region, with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south-eastern Ethiopia.",
     "locator": "detail page, rainfall forecast item"
    },
    {
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      "Axis ticks are 25-50 deg E and 10 deg S - 20 deg N in 5-degree steps (plain latitude-longitude map).",
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   "evidence": [
    {
     "id": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_map",
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     "caption": "Rainfall forecast - October - December 2026_Update - IGAD Region"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "provider": "EMI",
   "product": "rainfall_tercile_probability",
   "representation": "zone_tercile_probabilities",
   "label": "Kiremt 2026 Assessment and Bega 2026_27 Outlook Hydro met Bulletin",
   "requested_url": "https://www.ethiomet.gov.et/products/seasonal-hydromet-bulletin/kiremt-2026-assessment-and-bega-2026_27-hydro-met-bulletin/",
   "download_url": "https://www.ethiomet.gov.et/documents/796/Kiremt_2026_Assesment_and_Bega_2026_27_Outlook_hydromet_Bulletin_pVHz8Fp.pdf",
   "file": "data/external_forecasts/ondj_2026_27/emi_bega_2026_27_outlook/d55c4d39500d13a9.pdf",
   "sha256": "d55c4d39500d13a9da842a575f735bd07cf2ed08ac924ec8012e197a66e921a1",
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   "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T08:45:10+00:00",
   "target_start": "2026-10-01",
   "target_end": "2027-01-31",
   "season_label": "Bega (ONDJ) 2026/27",
   "issue_date": null,
   "initialization": null,
   "reference_period": null,
   "http_last_modified": null,
   "narrative": [
    {
     "text": "October: Humid to wet conditions across southern and southwestern catchments Baro-Akobo, Wabi Shebelle, Genale Dawa, Ogaden, and Abay support initial surface water accumulation.",
     "locator": "PDF page 21"
    },
    {
     "text": "November: Moisture shifts southward; wet to very wet conditions continue in Genale Dawa, Wabi Shebelle, Baro- Akobo, Ogaden, and parts of Abay Rift Valley, while northern areas dry out.",
     "locator": "PDF page 21"
    },
    {
     "text": "December: Dry to arid conditions dominate northern, central, and eastern basins Afar-Denakil, Aysha, middle upper Abay, Tekeze, and Awash. Sub-humid to wet levels persist in Omo-Gibe, Rift Valley, Baro-Akobo, Genale Dawa, Wabi Shebelle, and middle lower Ogaden.",
     "locator": "PDF page 21"
    },
    {
     "text": "January: Arid conditions expand across most northern, central, and eastern catchments. Sub-humid to wet conditions remain confined to Omo-Gibe, Rift Valley, and upper Genale Dawa.",
     "locator": "PDF page 21"
    }
   ],
   "products_listed_for_season": null,
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   "extraction_version": 1,
   "pdf_metadata": {
    "Author": "Alex",
    "Creator": "Microsoft® Word 2013",
    "CreationDate": "D:20261007231335-09'00'",
    "ModDate": "D:20261007231335-09'00'",
    "Producer": "Microsoft® Word 2013"
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    "status": "validated",
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     "note": null,
     "confirmed_checks": [
      "PDF page 21 figure is titled 'NATIONAL OUTLOOK FOR (ONDJ 2026/27)'.",
      "Printed values per zone, in the printed order A (above), N (normal), B (below): III 55/25/20, VI 60/25/15, VII 60/15/25, VIII 75/15/10.",
      "Zone VII label is partly cut at the figure's left edge ('one VII'); the values are fully legible.",
      "Arrow-tip locations (approximate, +/- 0.5 deg) correspond to the arrow heads in the figure.",
      "No reference period is stated for the probabilities."
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    "checks_for_reviewer": [
     "PDF page 21 figure is titled 'NATIONAL OUTLOOK FOR (ONDJ 2026/27)'.",
     "Printed values per zone, in the printed order A (above), N (normal), B (below): III 55/25/20, VI 60/25/15, VII 60/15/25, VIII 75/15/10.",
     "Zone VII label is partly cut at the figure's left edge ('one VII'); the values are fully legible.",
     "Arrow-tip locations (approximate, +/- 0.5 deg) correspond to the arrow heads in the figure.",
     "No reference period is stated for the probabilities."
    ]
   },
   "candidate_pages": [
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     "keyword_hits": 3,
     "images": 1
    },
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     "keyword_hits": 1,
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 ],
 "extraction_records": {
  "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall": {
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   "method": "automatic_raster_digitization",
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   "created_by": "Template prepared by the assistant (Claude) from the downloaded image; values are computed from the image by external_forecasts.digitize_dominant_map.",
   "template": {
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     50
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    "legend_x": 915,
    "no_forecast_rgb": [
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     190
    ],
    "no_forecast_meaning": "Grey areas are not explained in the legend; treated as 'no forecast shown' (not as a category).",
    "colour_tolerance": 30,
    "legend_bars": [
     {
      "category": "above",
      "intervals_top_down": [
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        90
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     {
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        70
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        60
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        50
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   },
   "checks_for_reviewer": [
    "The map title reads 'Rainfall Forecast for Oct - Dec 2026_Update' (OND 2026, IGAD region).",
    "Colour bars from top to bottom are Above (boxes 40-50 ... 90-100 %), Normal and Below (boxes 40-50 ... 80-90 %).",
    "Axis ticks are 25-50 deg E and 10 deg S - 20 deg N in 5-degree steps (plain latitude-longitude map).",
    "The digitized comparison map (outputs/.../comparisons/maps/icpac_digitized.png) matches the original over Ethiopia.",
    "Grey areas are treated as 'no forecast shown'."
   ],
   "status": "validated",
   "review": {
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    "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-09T09:21:08+00:00",
    "decision": "validated",
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    "confirmed_checks": [
     "The map title reads 'Rainfall Forecast for Oct - Dec 2026_Update' (OND 2026, IGAD region).",
     "Colour bars from top to bottom are Above (boxes 40-50 ... 90-100 %), Normal and Below (boxes 40-50 ... 80-90 %).",
     "Axis ticks are 25-50 deg E and 10 deg S - 20 deg N in 5-degree steps (plain latitude-longitude map).",
     "The digitized comparison map (outputs/.../comparisons/maps/icpac_digitized.png) matches the original over Ethiopia.",
     "Grey areas are treated as 'no forecast shown'."
    ],
    "source_sha256": "38789cddd2e31c49b72ec97b821856d1d82d100e75971aef173b8f28d276afa6",
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    "content_hash_note": "Added 2026-10-09 when reviews were bound to the extraction contents; the record contents are unchanged since this review (commit f477821)."
   }
  },
  "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook": {
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   "source_sha256": "d55c4d39500d13a9da842a575f735bd07cf2ed08ac924ec8012e197a66e921a1",
   "figure_sha256": "2c02a6b4ea617d7361b6b4a550e7a3c79f661c0bb0fbe99f2489ae4e630ace96",
   "method": "draft_figure_transcription",
   "extraction_version": 1,
   "created_by": "Draft transcription by the assistant (Claude) from the embedded figure of PDF page 21; not yet reviewed.",
   "source_locator": {
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    "figure_title": "NATIONAL OUTLOOK FOR (ONDJ 2026/27)"
   },
   "figure_axes": {
    "note": "Axis calibration of the 1022 x 530 px embedded figure from its tick labels (used only to place the arrow tips).",
    "lon_deg": "32.5 + (x_px - 170) / 41.2",
    "lat_deg": "14 - (y_px - 88.5) / 37.3"
   },
   "zones": [
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     "zone_label": "III",
     "printed_order": "A/N/B",
     "printed": "A 55, N 25, B 20",
     "probabilities": {
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      "above": 0.55
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     "anchor": {
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      "kind": "arrow tip",
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    },
    {
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     "printed": "A 60, N 25, B 15",
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      "above": 0.6
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     "anchor": {
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      "pixel": [
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      "kind": "arrow tip",
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    },
    {
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     "printed": "A 60, N 15, B 25",
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     },
     "anchor": {
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      "kind": "arrow tip",
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    },
    {
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     "printed": "A 75, N 15, B 10",
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      "above": 0.75
     },
     "anchor": {
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      "pixel": [
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      "kind": "arrow tip",
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     }
    }
   ],
   "geometry_note": "The figure shows no zone boundaries (purple lines are river basins). Each zone is located only by the tip of its arrow; zone polygons require alignment with EMI's zone map before any zone-mean calculation.",
   "checks_for_reviewer": [
    "PDF page 21 figure is titled 'NATIONAL OUTLOOK FOR (ONDJ 2026/27)'.",
    "Printed values per zone, in the printed order A (above), N (normal), B (below): III 55/25/20, VI 60/25/15, VII 60/15/25, VIII 75/15/10.",
    "Zone VII label is partly cut at the figure's left edge ('one VII'); the values are fully legible.",
    "Arrow-tip locations (approximate, +/- 0.5 deg) correspond to the arrow heads in the figure.",
    "No reference period is stated for the probabilities."
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   "status": "validated",
   "review": {
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    "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-09T09:20:42+00:00",
    "decision": "validated",
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     "PDF page 21 figure is titled 'NATIONAL OUTLOOK FOR (ONDJ 2026/27)'.",
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     "Zone VII label is partly cut at the figure's left edge ('one VII'); the values are fully legible.",
     "Arrow-tip locations (approximate, +/- 0.5 deg) correspond to the arrow heads in the figure.",
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 },
 "anomaly_products_checked": {
  "ICPAC": "Products listed for october-december-2026_update (IGAD region): rainfall tercile probability (27) and temperature (5); no rainfall-anomaly product (23, 25).",
  "EMI": "The Bega 2026/27 outlook bulletin gives analogue-year moisture outlooks and zone tercile probabilities; no rainfall-amount anomaly map for ONDJ 2026/27."
 }
}