{ "platform": { "target": "FMAM", "label": "FMAM 2026", "target_start": "2026-02-01", "target_end": "2026-05-31", "native_forecast": "outputs/verification_2026_fmam_feb/frozen_forecasts/init02_FMAM/forecast_2026.nc", "native_sha256": "8dccc5619d4f712a0bbaa93003b5b2dc8e2a4566b85eabd77c864c56dddfc92f", "minimum_leading_probability": 0.4, "areas": { "all_ethiopia": "All Ethiopia", "season_domain": "FMAM rainfall contribution domain", "fmam_main_season_domain": "FMAM main-season rainfall domain (Belg / Gu / Ganna, >=40% of annual)" } }, "sources": [ { "id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall", "provider": "ICPAC", "product": "rainfall_tercile_probability", "representation": "dominant_category_map", "label": "Rainfall forecast - March - May 2026 - IGAD Region", "season_label": "MAM 2026", "target_start": "2026-03-01", "target_end": "2026-05-31", "issue_date": null, "initialization": null, "reference_period": null, "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T15:15:47+00:00", "sha256": "a9d7f6106eb5cb61e2b7ac9aa3e15a43750615d0d55131e726d6c554738240fe", "page": "https://www.icpac.net/seasonal-forecast/Mar-May-2026/?region=1&resource_type=27", "download": "https://www.icpac.net/media/images/GHA-MAM-Rainfall.original.png", "narrative": [ { "text": "Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of Ethiopia, parts of northern and central and southern Somalia, northern Eritrea, South Sudan, central to southern Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.", "locator": "detail page, rainfall forecast item" }, { "text": "Normal to drier than normal conditions are expected over western and northern Kenya, western and eastern Uganda, south-western to central and north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, western South Sudan and most parts of Somalia.", "locator": "detail page, rainfall forecast item" } ], "extraction": { "status": "validated", "method": "automatic_raster_digitization", "review": { "reviewer": "Yonas M", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-09T15:21:49+00:00", "decision": "validated", "note": null, "confirmed_checks": [ "Title reads 'Rainfall Probabilistic Forecast for Mar - May 2026_Update' (IGAD region); the product page label is 'Rainfall forecast - March - May 2026'.", "Colour bars, top to bottom, are Above, Normal and Below, each with seven boxes: 90-100, 80-90, 70-80, 60-70, 50-60, 40-50 and 33-40 %.", "Axis ticks are 25-50 deg E and 20 deg N - 10 deg S in 5-degree steps.", "The digitized comparison map matches the original over Ethiopia.", "Grey areas are treated as 'no forecast shown'." ], "source_sha256": "a9d7f6106eb5cb61e2b7ac9aa3e15a43750615d0d55131e726d6c554738240fe", "content_sha256": "c1ba1eb7fc458a2955ef2fe902cb3ab40a8c83ba837bbb80195526fa1d56e49e" }, "note": null }, "refresh": { "state": "checked", "text": "Checked 2026-10-09: new product, reviewed", "checked_utc": "2026-10-09T15:15:47+00:00" }, "figures": [ { "id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_map", "file": "assets/external/fmam2026feb/icpac_mam_2026_rainfall.png", "caption": "Rainfall forecast - March - May 2026 - IGAD Region" } ] }, { "id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "provider": "EMI", "product": "rainfall_tercile_probability", "representation": "zone_tercile_probabilities", "label": "Bega 2025-26 Assessment and Belg2026 hydro met Bulletin", "season_label": "Belg (FMAM) 2026", "target_start": "2026-02-01", "target_end": "2026-05-31", "issue_date": null, "initialization": null, "reference_period": null, "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T15:16:15+00:00", "sha256": "4a0d4eedcc7c108ab4a6f91c242adde43f46b4dad024e17a48b3b7164392d066", "page": "https://www.ethiomet.gov.et/products/seasonal-hydromet-bulletin/bega-2025-26-assessment-and-belg2026-hydro-met-bulletin/", "download": "https://www.ethiomet.gov.et/documents/625/Bega_2025_26_and_Belg_outlook2026E_Hydromet_bulletin_English_bulletin.pdf", "narrative": [ { "text": "Summery and advisory for coming Belg (FMAM), 2026 For Belg 2026, rainfall in the Belg-benefiting catchments is anticipated to be normal to above normal Rainfall condition. February is expected to remain mostly dry, while from March through May, the catchments are likely to experience better conditions, to increase the availability of surface water and groundwater recharge. Tercile probability on basin map for coming belg 2026 Season During the coming Belg 2026 season (typically February to May), meteorological forecasts indicate that Most of Belg Benefiting catchments are likely to receive above Normal rainfall amounts over Most of Genale dawa, and lower Reft vally and close to normal or above normal rainfall condition over Wabeshebele, Awash Afar Denakel, Ommo Gibe, Baro Akobo and Upper and Middle Abay Basins. This pattern has important implications for both surface water discharge (riv", "locator": "PDF page 22" } ], "extraction": { "status": "validated", "method": "draft_figure_transcription", "review": { "reviewer": "Yonas M", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-09T15:22:08+00:00", "decision": "validated", "note": null, "confirmed_checks": [ "PDF page 22 ('Summery and advisory for coming Belg (FMAM), 2026') carries the zone outlook figure.", "Printed values (A/N/B): West 45/30/25, North-central 60/30/10, South-central 55/30/15, Southeast 45/35/20.", "Each zone's fill colour matches the zone where its values are printed; the grey 'Climatological Dry' area is excluded.", "The digitized zones on the comparison map match the zones of the EMI figure.", "No reference period is stated for the probabilities." ], "source_sha256": "4a0d4eedcc7c108ab4a6f91c242adde43f46b4dad024e17a48b3b7164392d066", "content_sha256": "b6a203d7c72147f50ca64cd11738d53dbd646c8615e59cf898554ff77a302c04" }, "note": null }, "refresh": { "state": "checked", "text": "Checked 2026-10-09: new product, reviewed", "checked_utc": "2026-10-09T15:16:15+00:00" }, "figures": [ { "id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook_page22", "file": "assets/external/fmam2026feb/emi_belg_2026_outlook_page22_figure.jpg", "caption": "Bega 2025-26 Assessment and Belg2026 hydro met Bulletin, PDF page 22" } ] } ], "maps": [ { "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "file": "assets/external/fmam2026feb/emi_belg_2026_outlook_anchors.png", "name": "emi_belg_2026_outlook_anchors.png" }, { "source_id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall", "file": "assets/external/fmam2026feb/icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_comparison.png", "name": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_comparison.png" } ], "metrics": [ { "metric": "display_official_probabilities", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "where": "West", "status": "available", "reason": null, "basis": null, "value": { "below": 0.25, "near": 0.3, "above": 0.45 } }, { "metric": "favoured_category_relationship", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "where": "West", "status": "unavailable", "reason": null, "basis": "reviewed_visual (arrow-tip neighbourhood)", "value": null }, { "metric": "zone_mean_probability", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "where": "West", "status": "available", "reason": null, "basis": "zone polygons digitized from the EMI figure", "value": { "mean_local_probabilities": [ 0.31032407575288407, 0.3388683341464735, 0.3508075901006422 ], "cells": 309, "region_name": null, "basis": "zone polygons digitized from the EMI figure", "domain_share": 0.7637540453074434, "area_shares": { "season_domain": 0.7637540453074434, "fmam_main_season_domain": 0.012944983818770227 }, "relationship": "weak_signal", "status": "validated" } }, { "metric": "same_event_probability_difference", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "where": "West", "status": "unavailable", "reason": "zone_geometry_requires_alignment; official_reference_period_unknown", "basis": null, "value": null }, { "metric": "display_official_probabilities", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "where": "North-central", "status": "available", "reason": null, "basis": null, "value": { "below": 0.1, "near": 0.3, "above": 0.6 } }, { "metric": "favoured_category_relationship", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "where": "North-central", "status": "unavailable", "reason": null, "basis": "reviewed_visual (arrow-tip neighbourhood)", "value": null }, { "metric": "zone_mean_probability", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "where": "North-central", "status": "available", "reason": null, "basis": "zone polygons digitized from the EMI figure", "value": { "mean_local_probabilities": [ 0.2502201782508811, 0.3384944861357286, 0.41128533561339015 ], "cells": 408, "region_name": null, "basis": "zone polygons digitized from the EMI figure", "domain_share": 0.7328431372549019, "area_shares": { "season_domain": 0.7328431372549019, "fmam_main_season_domain": 0.1642156862745098 }, "relationship": "same_favoured_category", "status": "validated" } }, { "metric": "same_event_probability_difference", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "where": "North-central", "status": "unavailable", "reason": "zone_geometry_requires_alignment; official_reference_period_unknown", "basis": null, "value": null }, { "metric": "display_official_probabilities", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "where": "South-central", "status": "available", "reason": null, "basis": null, "value": { "below": 0.15, "near": 0.3, "above": 0.55 } }, { "metric": "favoured_category_relationship", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "where": "South-central", "status": "unavailable", "reason": null, "basis": "reviewed_visual (arrow-tip neighbourhood)", "value": null }, { "metric": "zone_mean_probability", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "where": "South-central", "status": "available", "reason": null, "basis": "zone polygons digitized from the EMI figure", "value": { "mean_local_probabilities": [ 0.21896340919001964, 0.33427176938370756, 0.4467648214262728 ], "cells": 253, "region_name": null, "basis": "zone polygons digitized from the EMI figure", "domain_share": 1.0, "area_shares": { "season_domain": 1.0, "fmam_main_season_domain": 0.766798418972332 }, "relationship": "same_favoured_category", "status": "validated" } }, { "metric": "same_event_probability_difference", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "where": "South-central", "status": "unavailable", "reason": "zone_geometry_requires_alignment; official_reference_period_unknown", "basis": null, "value": null }, { "metric": "display_official_probabilities", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "where": "Southeast", "status": "available", "reason": null, "basis": null, "value": { "below": 0.2, "near": 0.35, "above": 0.45 } }, { "metric": "favoured_category_relationship", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "where": "Southeast", "status": "unavailable", "reason": null, "basis": "reviewed_visual (arrow-tip neighbourhood)", "value": null }, { "metric": "zone_mean_probability", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "where": "Southeast", "status": "available", "reason": null, "basis": "zone polygons digitized from the EMI figure", "value": { "mean_local_probabilities": [ 0.19191724229151205, 0.28910994608716717, 0.5189728116213207 ], "cells": 331, "region_name": null, "basis": "zone polygons digitized from the EMI figure", "domain_share": 0.9939577039274925, "area_shares": { "season_domain": 0.9939577039274925, "fmam_main_season_domain": 0.9305135951661632 }, "relationship": "same_favoured_category", "status": "validated" } }, { "metric": "same_event_probability_difference", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "where": "Southeast", "status": "unavailable", "reason": "zone_geometry_requires_alignment; official_reference_period_unknown", "basis": null, "value": null }, { "metric": "mapped_category_agreement", "source_id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall", "where": "All Ethiopia", "status": "available", "reason": null, "basis": "reviewed_digitization", "value": { "area_share_official_forecast_shown": 0.8887899835589228, "area_share_official_no_forecast": 0.11121001644107704, "area_share_both_favoured": 0.6824949097785944, "agreement_share_where_both_favoured": 0.5422665979515584, "opposing_share_where_both_favoured": 0.10400017215172697, "official_category_shares": { "below": 0.06164975379689254, "near": 0.2536990424139466, "above": 0.684651203789161 }, "official_interval_shares": { "below 40-50%": 0.06164975379689254, "near 33-40%": 0.2536990424139466, "above 33-40%": 0.0007436689319039053, "above 40-50%": 0.5704683282479368, "above 50-60%": 0.1134392066093203 }, "platform_category_shares": { "below": 0.07884075551875933, "near": 0.098986817114521, "above": 0.5652159429439726, "weak": 0.256956484422747 }, "platform_mean_local_probabilities": [ 0.260256118628429, 0.32322288895872764, 0.4165209924128432 ], "cells": 1484, "registration_sensitivity": { "shifts_px": 8, "agreement_range": [ 0.5380589846649526, 0.546865698006757 ], "compared_area_range": [ 0.677804785671852, 0.6831649840477777 ] }, "overlap_majority": { "official": "above", "platform": "above", "official_share": 0.6490636927031869, "platform_share": 0.8164692575203067 } } }, { "metric": "mapped_category_agreement", "source_id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall", "where": "FMAM rainfall contribution domain", "status": "available", "reason": null, "basis": "reviewed_digitization", "value": { "area_share_official_forecast_shown": 0.9973692739839995, "area_share_official_no_forecast": 0.002630726016000486, "area_share_both_favoured": 0.8221555886529757, "agreement_share_where_both_favoured": 0.5507173217111235, "opposing_share_where_both_favoured": 0.09249512527770298, "official_category_shares": { "below": 0.06907003270508957, "near": 0.2721746481924132, "above": 0.6587553191024972 }, "official_interval_shares": { "below 40-50%": 0.06907003270508957, "near 33-40%": 0.2721746481924132, "above 40-50%": 0.5838127882087936, "above 50-60%": 0.07494253089370365 }, "platform_category_shares": { "below": 0.01602608589204904, "near": 0.10605158459588142, "above": 0.700954214544331, "weak": 0.17696811496773848 }, "platform_mean_local_probabilities": [ 0.23369961570565054, 0.322426717969348, 0.44387366632500147 ], "cells": 1120, "registration_sensitivity": { "shifts_px": 8, "agreement_range": [ 0.5480203533817705, 0.5539972780444294 ], "compared_area_range": [ 0.8212578824362726, 0.8221555886529757 ] }, "overlap_majority": { "official": "above", "platform": "above", "official_share": 0.6290337688020022, "platform_share": 0.8515151241774769 } } }, { "metric": "mapped_category_agreement", "source_id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall", "where": "FMAM main-season rainfall domain (Belg / Gu / Ganna, >=40% of annual)", "status": "available", "reason": null, "basis": "reviewed_digitization", "value": { "area_share_official_forecast_shown": 1.0, "area_share_official_no_forecast": 0.0, "area_share_both_favoured": 0.9671645464795047, "agreement_share_where_both_favoured": 0.5267882136311428, "opposing_share_where_both_favoured": 0.11739280546267171, "official_category_shares": { "below": 0.1239670778527791, "near": 0.3680745009745998, "above": 0.5079584211726209 }, "official_interval_shares": { "below 40-50%": 0.1239670778527791, "near 33-40%": 0.3680745009745998, "above 40-50%": 0.5062562054462509, "above 50-60%": 0.001702215726369988 }, "platform_category_shares": { "below": 0.0, "near": 0.03642872245746459, "above": 0.9307358240220401, "weak": 0.03283545352049531 }, "platform_mean_local_probabilities": [ 0.20337775001506045, 0.30814285056155744, 0.48847939942338203 ], "cells": 573, "registration_sensitivity": { "shifts_px": 8, "agreement_range": [ 0.5213555976682831, 0.5358507080966158 ], "compared_area_range": [ 0.9671645464795047, 0.9671645464795047 ] }, "overlap_majority": { "official": "above", "platform": "above", "official_share": 0.5216333996521961, "platform_share": 0.9623345142353845 } } }, { "metric": "same_event_probability_difference", "source_id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall", "where": null, "status": "unavailable", "reason": "target_window_mismatch; official_publishes_only_favoured_category_interval", "basis": null, "value": null }, { "metric": "rainfall_anomaly_difference", "source_id": null, "where": null, "status": "unavailable", "reason": "official_amount_anomaly_not_found_in_checked_products", "basis": null, "value": null }, { "metric": "forecast_accuracy", "source_id": null, "where": null, "status": "available", "reason": null, "basis": "single-season scores against CHIRPS observations (see Against CHIRPS observations)", "value": null } ], "summary": [ { "id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_all_ethiopia_finding_summary", "area_key": "all_ethiopia", "source_id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall", "status": "validated", "title": "ICPAC — All Ethiopia", "text": "Category agreement of 54.2% within the compared area, which covers 68% of the analysed national area. Predominant category in both: above normal. Periods differ (Mar 2026–May 2026 vs Feb 2026–May 2026).", "evidence_ids": [ "platform_forecast_fmam", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_map", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_comparison_map" ], "scope": { "compared_area_share": 0.6824949097785944, "period": "Mar 2026–May 2026 vs Feb 2026–May 2026" } }, { "id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_season_domain_finding_summary", "area_key": "season_domain", "source_id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall", "status": "validated", "title": "ICPAC — FMAM rainfall contribution domain", "text": "Category agreement of 55.1% within the compared area, which covers 82% of the analysed domain. Predominant category in both: above normal. Periods differ (Mar 2026–May 2026 vs Feb 2026–May 2026).", "evidence_ids": [ "platform_forecast_fmam", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_map", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_comparison_map" ], "scope": { "compared_area_share": 0.8221555886529757, "period": "Mar 2026–May 2026 vs Feb 2026–May 2026" } }, { "id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_fmam_main_season_domain_finding_summary", "area_key": "fmam_main_season_domain", "source_id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall", "status": "validated", "title": "ICPAC — FMAM main-season rainfall domain (Belg / Gu / Ganna, >=40% of annual)", "text": "Category agreement of 52.7% within the compared area, which covers 97% of the analysed domain. Predominant category in both: above normal. Periods differ (Mar 2026–May 2026 vs Feb 2026–May 2026).", "evidence_ids": [ "platform_forecast_fmam", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_map", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_comparison_map" ], "scope": { "compared_area_share": 0.9671645464795047, "period": "Mar 2026–May 2026 vs Feb 2026–May 2026" } }, { "id": "emi_whole_zones_all_ethiopia_summary", "area_key": "all_ethiopia", "evidence_area": "all_ethiopia", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "status": "validated", "title": "EMI — whole zones", "text": "Platform area mean of local probabilities over each EMI zone, below / near / above: zone West: no clear category in one source, platform 31% / 34% / 35%; zone North-central: both favour above normal, platform 25% / 34% / 41%; zone South-central: both favour above normal, platform 22% / 33% / 45%; zone Southeast: both favour above normal, platform 19% / 29% / 52%. Zone boundaries: the zone polygons digitized from the EMI figure (georeferenced by fitting the country outline).", "evidence_ids": [ "emi_belg_2026_outlook_page22", "platform_forecast_fmam" ], "scope": { "zones": [ "West", "North-central", "South-central", "Southeast" ] } }, { "id": "emi_whole_zones_season_domain_summary", "area_key": "season_domain", "evidence_area": "all_ethiopia", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "status": "validated", "title": "EMI — whole zones", "text": "Platform area mean of local probabilities over each EMI zone, below / near / above: zone West: no clear category in one source, platform 31% / 34% / 35% over the whole zone (76% of it in the domain); zone North-central: both favour above normal, platform 25% / 34% / 41% over the whole zone (73% of it in the domain); zone South-central: both favour above normal, platform 22% / 33% / 45%; zone Southeast: both favour above normal, platform 19% / 29% / 52% over the whole zone (99% of it in the domain). Zone boundaries: the zone polygons digitized from the EMI figure (georeferenced by fitting the country outline).", "evidence_ids": [ "emi_belg_2026_outlook_page22", "platform_forecast_fmam" ], "scope": { "zones": [ "West", "North-central", "South-central", "Southeast" ] } }, { "id": "emi_whole_zones_fmam_main_season_domain_summary", "area_key": "fmam_main_season_domain", "evidence_area": "all_ethiopia", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "status": "validated", "title": "EMI — whole zones", "text": "Platform area mean of local probabilities over each EMI zone, below / near / above: zone West: no clear category in one source, platform 31% / 34% / 35% over the whole zone (1% of it in the domain); zone North-central: both favour above normal, platform 25% / 34% / 41% over the whole zone (16% of it in the domain); zone South-central: both favour above normal, platform 22% / 33% / 45% over the whole zone (77% of it in the domain); zone Southeast: both favour above normal, platform 19% / 29% / 52% over the whole zone (93% of it in the domain). Zone boundaries: the zone polygons digitized from the EMI figure (georeferenced by fitting the country outline).", "evidence_ids": [ "emi_belg_2026_outlook_page22", "platform_forecast_fmam" ], "scope": { "zones": [ "West", "North-central", "South-central", "Southeast" ] } }, { "id": "robustness_summary", "area_key": "any", "source_id": null, "status": "validated", "title": "Robustness of the extraction", "text": "With the ICPAC map as digitized and shifted by one source pixel in each direction, the All Ethiopia category agreement stays between 53.8% and 54.7%. With the ICPAC map as digitized and shifted by one source pixel in each direction, the FMAM rainfall contribution domain category agreement stays between 54.8% and 55.4%. With the ICPAC map as digitized and shifted by one source pixel in each direction, the FMAM main-season rainfall domain (Belg / Gu / Ganna, >=40% of annual) category agreement stays between 52.1% and 53.6%. These are bounded sensitivity checks of the extraction, not statistical confidence intervals; exact EMI zone comparisons remain unavailable.", "evidence_ids": [], "scope": {} } ], "emi_table": [ { "id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook_zone_West_finding", "status": "validated", "zone": "West", "official": "25% / 30% / 45%", "platform": "—", "relationship": "—", "relationship_code": null, "domain_share": null, "area_shares": null, "center": null, "stable": null, "evidence_ids": [ "platform_forecast_fmam", "emi_belg_2026_outlook_page22" ], "zone_name": null, "zone_domain_share": 0.7637540453074434, "zone_area_shares": { "season_domain": 0.7637540453074434, "fmam_main_season_domain": 0.012944983818770227 }, "zone_cells": 309, "zone_mean": "31% / 34% / 35%", "zone_relationship": "No clear category in one source", "zone_relationship_code": "weak_signal" }, { "id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook_zone_North-central_finding", "status": "validated", "zone": "North-central", "official": "10% / 30% / 60%", "platform": "—", "relationship": "—", "relationship_code": null, "domain_share": null, "area_shares": null, "center": null, "stable": null, "evidence_ids": [ "platform_forecast_fmam", "emi_belg_2026_outlook_page22" ], "zone_name": null, "zone_domain_share": 0.7328431372549019, "zone_area_shares": { "season_domain": 0.7328431372549019, "fmam_main_season_domain": 0.1642156862745098 }, "zone_cells": 408, "zone_mean": "25% / 34% / 41%", "zone_relationship": "Same category", "zone_relationship_code": "same_favoured_category" }, { "id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook_zone_South-central_finding", "status": "validated", "zone": "South-central", "official": "15% / 30% / 55%", "platform": "—", "relationship": "—", "relationship_code": null, "domain_share": null, "area_shares": null, "center": null, "stable": null, "evidence_ids": [ "platform_forecast_fmam", "emi_belg_2026_outlook_page22" ], "zone_name": null, "zone_domain_share": 1.0, "zone_area_shares": { "season_domain": 1.0, "fmam_main_season_domain": 0.766798418972332 }, "zone_cells": 253, "zone_mean": "22% / 33% / 45%", "zone_relationship": "Same category", "zone_relationship_code": "same_favoured_category" }, { "id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook_zone_Southeast_finding", "status": "validated", "zone": "Southeast", "official": "20% / 35% / 45%", "platform": "—", "relationship": "—", "relationship_code": null, "domain_share": null, "area_shares": null, "center": null, "stable": null, "evidence_ids": [ "platform_forecast_fmam", "emi_belg_2026_outlook_page22" ], "zone_name": null, "zone_domain_share": 0.9939577039274925, "zone_area_shares": { "season_domain": 0.9939577039274925, "fmam_main_season_domain": 0.9305135951661632 }, "zone_cells": 331, "zone_mean": "19% / 29% / 52%", "zone_relationship": "Same category", "zone_relationship_code": "same_favoured_category" } ], "icpac_table": [ { "id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_sample_West", "kind": "sample", "status": "validated", "location": "Within zone West", "zone": "West", "official": "Above normal 40–50%", "official_note": "60% of shown cells; also Above normal 50–60% (36%), Near normal 33–40% (5%)", "platform": "31% / 34% / 35%", "relationship": "No clear category in one source", "relationship_code": "weak_signal", "domain_share": 0.7637540453074434, "area_shares": { "season_domain": 0.7637540453074434, "fmam_main_season_domain": 0.012944983818770227 }, "area_key": null, "evidence_ids": [ "platform_forecast_fmam", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_map", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_comparison_map" ] }, { "id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_sample_North-central", "kind": "sample", "status": "validated", "location": "Within zone North-central", "zone": "North-central", "official": "Above normal 40–50%", "official_note": "57% of shown cells; also Near normal 33–40% (33%), Below normal 40–50% (5%), Above normal 50–60% (5%), Above normal 33–40% (<1%); 4% of the sample grey (no forecast category shown)", "platform": "25% / 34% / 41%", "relationship": "Same category", "relationship_code": "same_favoured_category", "domain_share": 0.7328431372549019, "area_shares": { "season_domain": 0.7328431372549019, "fmam_main_season_domain": 0.1642156862745098 }, "area_key": null, "evidence_ids": [ "platform_forecast_fmam", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_map", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_comparison_map" ] }, { "id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_sample_South-central", "kind": "sample", "status": "validated", "location": "Within zone South-central", "zone": "South-central", "official": "Near normal 33–40%", "official_note": "48% of shown cells; also Above normal 40–50% (32%), Below normal 40–50% (20%)", "platform": "22% / 33% / 45%", "relationship": "Near normal vs other", "relationship_code": "near_versus_other", "domain_share": 1.0, "area_shares": { "season_domain": 1.0, "fmam_main_season_domain": 0.766798418972332 }, "area_key": null, "evidence_ids": [ "platform_forecast_fmam", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_map", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_comparison_map" ] }, { "id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_sample_Southeast", "kind": "sample", "status": "validated", "location": "Within zone Southeast", "zone": "Southeast", "official": "Above normal 40–50%", "official_note": "77% of shown cells; also Near normal 33–40% (19%), Below normal 40–50% (4%)", "platform": "19% / 29% / 52%", "relationship": "Same category", "relationship_code": "same_favoured_category", "domain_share": 0.9939577039274925, "area_shares": { "season_domain": 0.9939577039274925, "fmam_main_season_domain": 0.9305135951661632 }, "area_key": null, "evidence_ids": [ "platform_forecast_fmam", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_map", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_comparison_map" ] }, { "id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_all_ethiopia_finding_row", "kind": "area", "status": "validated", "location": "All Ethiopia", "zone": null, "official": "Above normal (most often 40–50%)", "official_note": "shown on 89% of the area; 11% grey (no forecast category shown)", "platform": "26% / 32% / 42%", "relationship": "Same category (where both show a category)", "relationship_code": "same_favoured_category", "domain_share": null, "area_key": "all_ethiopia", "evidence_ids": [ "platform_forecast_fmam", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_map", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_comparison_map" ] }, { "id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_season_domain_finding_row", "kind": "area", "status": "validated", "location": "FMAM rainfall contribution domain", "zone": null, "official": "Above normal (most often 40–50%)", "official_note": "shown on >99% of the area; <1% grey (no forecast category shown)", "platform": "23% / 32% / 45%", "relationship": "Same category (where both show a category)", "relationship_code": "same_favoured_category", "domain_share": null, "area_key": "season_domain", "evidence_ids": [ "platform_forecast_fmam", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_map", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_comparison_map" ] }, { "id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_fmam_main_season_domain_finding_row", "kind": "area", "status": "validated", "location": "FMAM main-season rainfall domain (Belg / Gu / Ganna, >=40% of annual)", "zone": null, "official": "Above normal (most often 40–50%)", "official_note": "shown on 100% of the area; 0% grey (no forecast category shown)", "platform": "20% / 31% / 49%", "relationship": "Same category (where both show a category)", "relationship_code": "same_favoured_category", "domain_share": null, "area_key": "fmam_main_season_domain", "evidence_ids": [ "platform_forecast_fmam", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_map", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_comparison_map" ] } ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook_zone_West_finding_text", "finding": "emi_belg_2026_outlook_zone_West_finding", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "area": "EMI zone West", "area_key": "zone", "status": "validated", "relationship": "weak_signal", "text": "The platform does not show a unique favoured category over EMI zone West under its applicable rule. EMI prints 25% / 30% / 45% (below / near / above). Over the whole zone (as digitized from the EMI figure), the platform area mean is 31% / 34% / 35%: no clear category in one source.", "evidence_ids": [ "platform_forecast_fmam", "emi_belg_2026_outlook_page22" ] }, { "id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook_zone_North-central_finding_text", "finding": "emi_belg_2026_outlook_zone_North-central_finding", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "area": "EMI zone North-central", "area_key": "zone", "status": "validated", "relationship": "same_favoured_category", "text": "Both outlooks favour wetter-than-normal conditions over EMI zone North-central. EMI prints 10% / 30% / 60% (below / near / above). Over the whole zone (as digitized from the EMI figure), the platform area mean is 25% / 34% / 41%: same category.", "evidence_ids": [ "platform_forecast_fmam", "emi_belg_2026_outlook_page22" ] }, { "id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook_zone_South-central_finding_text", "finding": "emi_belg_2026_outlook_zone_South-central_finding", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "area": "EMI zone South-central", "area_key": "zone", "status": "validated", "relationship": "same_favoured_category", "text": "Both outlooks favour wetter-than-normal conditions over EMI zone South-central. EMI prints 15% / 30% / 55% (below / near / above). Over the whole zone (as digitized from the EMI figure), the platform area mean is 22% / 33% / 45%: same category.", "evidence_ids": [ "platform_forecast_fmam", "emi_belg_2026_outlook_page22" ] }, { "id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook_zone_Southeast_finding_text", "finding": "emi_belg_2026_outlook_zone_Southeast_finding", "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "area": "EMI zone Southeast", "area_key": "zone", "status": "validated", "relationship": "same_favoured_category", "text": "Both outlooks favour wetter-than-normal conditions over EMI zone Southeast. EMI prints 20% / 35% / 45% (below / near / above). Over the whole zone (as digitized from the EMI figure), the platform area mean is 19% / 29% / 52%: same category.", "evidence_ids": [ "platform_forecast_fmam", "emi_belg_2026_outlook_page22" ] }, { "id": "emi_shared_limitation", "finding": null, "source_id": "emi_belg_2026_outlook", "area": null, "area_key": "zone", "status": "validated", "relationship": null, "text": "The EMI zones were digitized from the figure's fill colours and placed by fitting the country outline, so their boundaries are approximate; the figure states no reference period, so probability differences are not calculated.", "evidence_ids": [] }, { "id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_all_ethiopia_finding_text", "finding": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_all_ethiopia_finding", "source_id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall", "area": "All Ethiopia", "area_key": "all_ethiopia", "status": "validated", "relationship": "same_favoured_category", "text": "The outlooks favour different categories over much of their shared displayed area in Ethiopia. ICPAC shows a favoured category on 89% of Ethiopia and no forecast category shown (the legend does not explain the grey areas) on 11%; where it shows one it favours above normal on 68%, most often at 40-50% and 33-40%. The platform favours above normal on 57% and below normal on 8% of Ethiopia. There is category agreement of 54.2% within the compared area, which covers 68% of the analysed national area; opposite categories (above vs below) on 10% of the compared area. ICPAC publishes only the favoured category and its probability interval, so probabilities are not differenced. The official outlook covers Mar 2026–May 2026 and the platform Feb 2026–May 2026 (Feb 2026 only in the platform), so this compares spatial tendencies, not probabilities for the same seasonal event.", "evidence_ids": [ "platform_forecast_fmam", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_map", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_comparison_map" ] }, { "id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_season_domain_finding_text", "finding": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_season_domain_finding", "source_id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall", "area": "FMAM rainfall contribution domain", "area_key": "season_domain", "status": "validated", "relationship": "same_favoured_category", "text": "The outlooks favour different categories over much of their shared displayed area in the FMAM rainfall contribution domain. ICPAC shows a favoured category on >99% of the FMAM rainfall contribution domain and no forecast category shown (the legend does not explain the grey areas) on <1%; where it shows one it favours above normal on 66%, most often at 40-50% and 33-40%. The platform favours above normal on 70% and below normal on 2% of the FMAM rainfall contribution domain. There is category agreement of 55.1% within the compared area, which covers 82% of the analysed domain; opposite categories (above vs below) on 9% of the compared area. ICPAC publishes only the favoured category and its probability interval, so probabilities are not differenced. The official outlook covers Mar 2026–May 2026 and the platform Feb 2026–May 2026 (Feb 2026 only in the platform), so this compares spatial tendencies, not probabilities for the same seasonal event.", "evidence_ids": [ "platform_forecast_fmam", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_map", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_comparison_map" ] }, { "id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_fmam_main_season_domain_finding_text", "finding": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_fmam_main_season_domain_finding", "source_id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall", "area": "FMAM main-season rainfall domain (Belg / Gu / Ganna, >=40% of annual)", "area_key": "fmam_main_season_domain", "status": "validated", "relationship": "same_favoured_category", "text": "The outlooks favour different categories over much of their shared displayed area in the FMAM main-season rainfall domain (Belg / Gu / Ganna, >=40% of annual). ICPAC shows a favoured category on 100% of the FMAM main-season rainfall domain (Belg / Gu / Ganna, >=40% of annual) and no forecast category shown (the legend does not explain the grey areas) on 0%; where it shows one it favours above normal on 51%, most often at 40-50% and 33-40%. The platform favours above normal on 93% and below normal on 0% of the FMAM main-season rainfall domain (Belg / Gu / Ganna, >=40% of annual). There is category agreement of 52.7% within the compared area, which covers 97% of the analysed domain; opposite categories (above vs below) on 12% of the compared area. ICPAC publishes only the favoured category and its probability interval, so probabilities are not differenced. The official outlook covers Mar 2026–May 2026 and the platform Feb 2026–May 2026 (Feb 2026 only in the platform), so this compares spatial tendencies, not probabilities for the same seasonal event.", "evidence_ids": [ "platform_forecast_fmam", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_map", "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_comparison_map" ] }, { "id": "not_calculated", "finding": null, "source_id": null, "area": null, "area_key": "any", "status": "validated", "relationship": null, "text": "Not calculated: rainfall-anomaly differences, because no official rainfall-amount anomaly product was found in the checked ICPAC and EMI products; same-event probability differences, because the target windows or spatial supports differ and ICPAC publishes only favoured-category intervals.", "evidence_ids": [] }, { "id": "observed_note", "finding": null, "source_id": null, "area": null, "area_key": "any", "status": "validated", "relationship": null, "text": "Single-season performance against CHIRPS observations is now evaluated (see Against CHIRPS observations). One season does not establish that any provider, or the platform, is generally more skilful.", "evidence_ids": [] } ], "evidence": { "platform_forecast_fmam": { "label": "Platform FMAM 2026 forecast data (NetCDF)", "kind": "platform", "links": [ { "label": "Platform map", "href": "assets/maps/fmam2026feb/forecast/FMAM/{view}/tercile_outlook.png" }, { "label": "Platform data (NetCDF)", "href": "downloads/data/fmam2026feb/FMAM_forecast_2026.nc" } ] }, "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_map": { "label": "ICPAC figure: Rainfall forecast - March - May 2026 - IGAD Region", "kind": "official_figure", "links": [ { "label": "Official figure", "href": "assets/external/fmam2026feb/icpac_mam_2026_rainfall.png" }, { "label": "Original file", "href": "https://www.icpac.net/media/images/GHA-MAM-Rainfall.original.png" } ] }, "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_record": { "label": "ICPAC source record", "kind": "source_record", "links": [ { "label": "Source record", "href": "downloads/fmam2026feb_comparison_sources.json" } ] }, "emi_belg_2026_outlook_page22": { "label": "EMI figure: Bega 2025-26 Assessment and Belg2026 hydro met Bulletin, PDF page 22", "kind": "official_figure", "links": [ { "label": "Official figure", "href": "assets/external/fmam2026feb/emi_belg_2026_outlook_page22_figure.jpg" }, { "label": "Original PDF page", "href": "https://www.ethiomet.gov.et/documents/625/Bega_2025_26_and_Belg_outlook2026E_Hydromet_bulletin_English_bulletin.pdf#page=22" } ] }, "emi_belg_2026_outlook_record": { "label": "EMI source record", "kind": "source_record", "links": [ { "label": "Source record", "href": "downloads/fmam2026feb_comparison_sources.json" } ] }, "emi_belg_2026_outlook_comparison_map": { "label": "Comparison map", "kind": "comparison_map", "links": [ { "label": "Comparison map", "href": "assets/external/fmam2026feb/emi_belg_2026_outlook_anchors.png" } ] }, "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_comparison_map": { "label": "Comparison map", "kind": "comparison_map", "links": [ { "label": "Comparison map", "href": "assets/external/fmam2026feb/icpac_mam_2026_rainfall_comparison.png" } ] } }, "notes": [ "Area means are area-weighted means of local grid-cell probabilities, not probabilities of area-mean rainfall.", "Favoured category: for the platform and EMI, the untied leading tercile where it reaches 40% (the map display rule), otherwise no clear category; for ICPAC, the dominant category ICPAC printed, including its 33–40% intervals.", "ICPAC covers Mar–May 2026 and the platform Feb–May 2026: a probability for one period cannot be built by averaging monthly probabilities of the other, so they are compared only as spatial tendencies." ], "stale": [], "rerun": "python scripts\\run_operational.py --config config\\cycles\\feb_2026_fmam.json --workflow products --compare-external", "created_utc": "2026-10-11T00:41:52+00:00", "engine": "rules v2", "reference_layers": [], "observed": { "stale": [], "rows": [ { "source_id": "platform", "provider": "Platform", "label": "FMAM 2026", "window": [ "Feb 2026", "May 2026" ], "area_key": "all_ethiopia", "area": "All Ethiopia", "favoured_rule": "untied leading tercile probability of at least 40%", "cells": 1484, "observation_coverage": 1.0, "outlook_coverage": 1.0, "favoured_coverage": 0.7430435155772529, "observed_fractions": { "below": 0.10629419261528017, "near": 0.3705353217530385, "above": 0.5231704856316812 }, "hit_share": 0.3252865791211671, "near_other_share": 0.45347006122763706, "opposite_share": 0.22124335965119588, "chance_of_favoured": 0.3333333333333333, "favoured_categories": { "below": 0.10610516593703102, "near": 0.1332180619833826, "above": 0.7606767720795864 }, "rps": 0.43765504436628516, "climatology_rps": 0.4320437816378761, "rpss": -0.012987717835300838 }, { "source_id": "platform", "provider": "Platform", "label": "FMAM 2026", "window": [ "Feb 2026", "May 2026" ], "area_key": "season_domain", "area": "FMAM rainfall contribution domain", "favoured_rule": "untied leading tercile probability of at least 40%", "cells": 1120, "observation_coverage": 1.0, "outlook_coverage": 1.0, "favoured_coverage": 0.8230318850322615, "observed_fractions": { "below": 0.1316005850045176, "near": 0.40059050924154066, "above": 0.46780890575394174 }, "hit_share": 0.3536984933179321, "near_other_share": 0.471234706096272, "opposite_share": 0.17506680058579596, "chance_of_favoured": 0.3333333333333333, "favoured_categories": { "below": 0.019472010967619857, "near": 0.1288547704220771, "above": 0.851673218610303 }, "rps": 0.41959522142499256, "climatology_rps": 0.4220253858083754, "rpss": 0.005758336974748479 }, { "source_id": "platform", "provider": "Platform", "label": "FMAM 2026", "window": [ "Feb 2026", "May 2026" ], "area_key": "fmam_main_season_domain", "area": "FMAM main-season rainfall domain (Belg / Gu / Ganna, >=40% of annual)", "favoured_rule": "untied leading tercile probability of at least 40%", "cells": 573, "observation_coverage": 1.0, "outlook_coverage": 1.0, "favoured_coverage": 0.9671645464795047, "observed_fractions": { "below": 0.2094705588708335, "near": 0.4933865946070185, "above": 0.29714284652214784 }, "hit_share": 0.29260615551427366, "near_other_share": 0.496187139293134, "opposite_share": 0.21120670519259235, "chance_of_favoured": 0.3333333333333333, "favoured_categories": { "near": 0.03766548576461551, "above": 0.9623345142353845 }, "rps": 0.4285266419345576, "climatology_rps": 0.39109335735321604, "rpss": -0.09571444740119595 }, { "source_id": "emi", "provider": "EMI", "label": "Belg (FMAM) 2026", "window": [ "Feb 2026", "May 2026" ], "area_key": "all_ethiopia", "area": "All Ethiopia", "favoured_rule": "untied leading tercile probability of at least 40%", "cells": 1301, "observation_coverage": 1.0, "outlook_coverage": 0.877977103043177, "favoured_coverage": 0.877977103043177, "observed_fractions": { "below": 0.11725180730718973, "near": 0.3878230805802486, "above": 0.49492511211256146 }, "hit_share": 0.49492511211256146, "near_other_share": 0.3878230805802486, "opposite_share": 0.11725180730718973, "chance_of_favoured": 0.33333333333333326, "favoured_categories": { "above": 1.0 }, "rps": 0.36565725541956434, "climatology_rps": 0.4262811953621393, "rpss": 0.1422158439127793 }, { "source_id": "emi", "provider": "EMI", "label": "Belg (FMAM) 2026", "window": [ "Feb 2026", "May 2026" ], "area_key": "season_domain", "area": "FMAM rainfall contribution domain", "favoured_rule": "untied leading tercile probability of at least 40%", "cells": 1117, "observation_coverage": 1.0, "outlook_coverage": 0.9973683722458337, "favoured_coverage": 0.9973683722458337, "observed_fractions": { "below": 0.13194782255645898, "near": 0.39988935797694536, "above": 0.4681628194665957 }, "hit_share": 0.4681628194665957, "near_other_share": 0.39988935797694536, "opposite_share": 0.13194782255645898, "chance_of_favoured": 0.3333333333333333, "favoured_categories": { "above": 1.0 }, "rps": 0.3716091574768891, "climatology_rps": 0.4222591028965738, "rpss": 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0.3110913687409886, "near": 0.5074013452719549, "above": 0.18150728598705665 }, "hit_share": 0.18150728598705665, "near_other_share": 0.5074013452719549, "opposite_share": 0.3110913687409886, "chance_of_favoured": 0.3333333333333333, "favoured_categories": { "above": 1.0 }, "rps": 0.4473055498432988, "climatology_rps": 0.3864217737982373, "rpss": -0.15755782974292432 }, { "source_id": "platform", "provider": "Platform", "label": "EMI zone Southeast", "window": [ "Feb 2026", "May 2026" ], "area_key": "zone", "area": "EMI zone Southeast", "zone": "Southeast", "official": null, "favoured_rule": "untied leading tercile probability of at least 40%", "cells": 331, "observation_coverage": 1.0, "outlook_coverage": 1.0, "favoured_coverage": 0.9969713171195389, "observed_fractions": { "below": 0.3110913687409886, "near": 0.5074013452719549, "above": 0.18150728598705665 }, "hit_share": 0.19112805338147798, "near_other_share": 0.49987340215629456, "opposite_share": 0.3089985444622277, "chance_of_favoured": 0.3333333333333333, "favoured_categories": { "near": 0.009069369374931403, "above": 0.9909306306250687 }, "rps": 0.4845476385969417, "climatology_rps": 0.3864217737982373, "rpss": -0.2539346161428755 }, { "source_id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall", "provider": "ICPAC", "label": "MAM 2026", "window": [ "Mar 2026", "May 2026" ], "area_key": "all_ethiopia", "area": "All Ethiopia", "favoured_rule": "the dominant category ICPAC printed, including its 33–40% intervals", "cells": 1317, "observation_coverage": 1.0, "outlook_coverage": 0.8887899835589228, "favoured_coverage": 0.8887899835589228, "observed_fractions": { "below": 0.11050169150610659, "near": 0.33171462225193743, "above": 0.5577836862419562 }, "hit_share": 0.5274683849551832, "near_other_share": 0.3987186641249588, "opposite_share": 0.07381295091985807, "chance_of_favoured": 0.33333333333333337, "favoured_categories": { "below": 0.06164975379689254, "near": 0.2536990424139466, "above": 0.684651203789161 }, "favoured_below_40_share": 0.25444271134585045 }, { "source_id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall", "provider": "ICPAC", "label": "MAM 2026", "window": [ "Mar 2026", "May 2026" ], "area_key": "season_domain", "area": "FMAM rainfall contribution domain", "favoured_rule": "the dominant category ICPAC printed, including its 33–40% intervals", "cells": 1117, "observation_coverage": 1.0, "outlook_coverage": 0.9973692739839995, "favoured_coverage": 0.9973692739839995, "observed_fractions": { "below": 0.12655995378399382, "near": 0.3526096443017911, "above": 0.5208304019142151 }, "hit_share": 0.5019986856561162, "near_other_share": 0.4172862349911513, "opposite_share": 0.08071507935273257, "chance_of_favoured": 0.33333333333333337, "favoured_categories": { "below": 0.06907003270508957, "near": 0.2721746481924132, "above": 0.6587553191024972 }, "favoured_below_40_share": 0.2721746481924132 }, { "source_id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall", "provider": "ICPAC", "label": "MAM 2026", "window": [ "Mar 2026", "May 2026" ], "area_key": "fmam_main_season_domain", "area": "FMAM main-season rainfall domain (Belg / Gu / Ganna, >=40% of annual)", "favoured_rule": "the dominant category ICPAC printed, including its 33–40% intervals", "cells": 573, "observation_coverage": 1.0, "outlook_coverage": 1.0, "favoured_coverage": 1.0, "observed_fractions": { "below": 0.20074089791014785, "near": 0.47070702129066283, "above": 0.3285520807991892 }, "hit_share": 0.37511011232621116, "near_other_share": 0.5079590237974868, "opposite_share": 0.11693086387630199, "chance_of_favoured": 0.3333333333333333, "favoured_categories": { "below": 0.1239670778527791, "near": 0.3680745009745998, "above": 0.5079584211726209 }, "favoured_below_40_share": 0.3680745009745998 }, { "source_id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall", "provider": "ICPAC", "label": "EMI zone West", "window": [ "Mar 2026", "May 2026" ], "area_key": "zone", "area": "EMI zone West", "zone": "West", "favoured_rule": "the dominant category ICPAC printed, including its 33–40% intervals", "cells": 309, "observation_coverage": 1.0, "outlook_coverage": 1.0, "favoured_coverage": 1.0, "observed_fractions": { "below": 0.0, "near": 0.11678432736634801, "above": 0.8832156726336519 }, "hit_share": 0.8701474796954809, "near_other_share": 0.1298525203045191, "opposite_share": 0.0, "chance_of_favoured": 0.33333333333333326, "favoured_categories": { "near": 0.045448197047642504, "above": 0.9545518029523574 }, "favoured_below_40_share": 0.045448197047642504 }, { "source_id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall", "provider": "ICPAC", "label": "EMI zone North-central", "window": [ "Mar 2026", "May 2026" ], "area_key": "zone", "area": "EMI zone North-central", "zone": "North-central", "favoured_rule": "the dominant category ICPAC printed, including its 33–40% intervals", "cells": 392, "observation_coverage": 1.0, "outlook_coverage": 0.9611532654424763, "favoured_coverage": 0.9611532654424763, "observed_fractions": { "below": 0.015290012742379384, "near": 0.3999751096523012, "above": 0.5847348776053194 }, "hit_share": 0.48237788111294205, "near_other_share": 0.48713088642946406, "opposite_share": 0.03049123245759375, "chance_of_favoured": 0.3333333333333333, "favoured_categories": { "below": 0.04584828883536777, "near": 0.33141077605934116, "above": 0.6227409351052909 }, "favoured_below_40_share": 0.333926512380395 }, { "source_id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall", "provider": "ICPAC", "label": "EMI zone South-central", "window": [ "Mar 2026", "May 2026" ], "area_key": "zone", "area": "EMI zone South-central", "zone": "South-central", "favoured_rule": "the dominant category ICPAC printed, including its 33–40% intervals", "cells": 253, "observation_coverage": 1.0, "outlook_coverage": 1.0, "favoured_coverage": 1.0, "observed_fractions": { "below": 0.1501051751442906, "near": 0.30052485148074626, "above": 0.5493699733749633 }, "hit_share": 0.44638279975445705, "near_other_share": 0.5021354202547698, "opposite_share": 0.05148177999077317, "chance_of_favoured": 0.33333333333333337, "favoured_categories": { "below": 0.197606350936116, "near": 0.4785583625123428, "above": 0.32383528655154126 }, "favoured_below_40_share": 0.4785583625123428 }, { "source_id": "icpac_mam_2026_rainfall", "provider": "ICPAC", "label": "EMI zone Southeast", "window": [ "Mar 2026", "May 2026" ], "area_key": "zone", "area": "EMI zone Southeast", "zone": "Southeast", "favoured_rule": "the dominant category ICPAC printed, including its 33–40% intervals", "cells": 331, "observation_coverage": 1.0, "outlook_coverage": 1.0, "favoured_coverage": 1.0, "observed_fractions": { "below": 0.3020244497851608, "near": 0.4952933844651297, "above": 0.20268216574970954 }, "hit_share": 0.29943907806079617, "near_other_share": 0.48321237581761556, "opposite_share": 0.2173485461215882, "chance_of_favoured": 0.3333333333333333, "favoured_categories": { "below": 0.03926813579362519, "near": 0.19343418933475764, "above": 0.7672976748716172 }, "favoured_below_40_share": 0.19343418933475764 } ], "map": "assets/external/fmam2026feb/observed_comparison.png", "name": "observed_comparison.png", "notes": [ "Single season: descriptive scores for one year, not evidence of general skill.", "Each outlook is scored against observations for its own target window; the observed tercile uses CHIRPS 1993-2025 terciles per 0.25° cell (official reference periods are not stated).", "Favoured category: for the platform and EMI, the untied leading tercile where it reaches 40% (the map display rule); for ICPAC, the dominant category ICPAC printed, including its 33–40% intervals (the share resting on 33–40% is reported). \"Chance\" is the climatological probability of the favoured category over the same cells (about one in three).", "Coverage: observation coverage is the share of the area with usable CHIRPS observations; outlook coverage the share of those cells where the provider issued an outlook (ICPAC grey areas and EMI's excluded dry areas have none); favoured-category coverage the share where its rule selects a category. Match percentages are within the favoured cells.", "RPSS: ranked probability skill score against the CHIRPS climatology, on identical cells; ICPAC publishes only the favoured category and its interval, so no RPSS is computed for ICPAC.", "EMI zone probabilities are applied uniformly over each digitized zone." ], "side_by_side_map": "assets/external/fmam2026feb/forecasts_and_observed.png", "side_by_side_name": "forecasts_and_observed.png", "windows": { "Feb 2026, Mar 2026, Apr 2026, May 2026": "verified FMAM observations", "Mar 2026, Apr 2026, May 2026": "sum of verified monthly totals (Mar, Apr, May); terciles from the same months 1993-2025" }, "reference_years": [ 1993, 2025 ], "created_utc": "2026-10-11T00:41:54+00:00" } }