{
 "platform": {
  "target": "ONDJ",
  "label": "ONDJ 2026/27",
  "target_start": "2026-10-01",
  "target_end": "2027-01-31",
  "native_forecast": "outputs/verification_2026_ondj/frozen_forecasts/init09_ONDJ/forecast_2026.nc",
  "native_sha256": "e7d2e17738e206cc32eb032259fcafbaf981bee867c64a25325b7dec0605825c",
  "minimum_leading_probability": 0.4,
  "areas": {
   "all_ethiopia": "All Ethiopia",
   "season_domain": "ONDJ R3 (Deyr) rainfall domain"
  }
 },
 "sources": [
  {
   "id": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall",
   "provider": "ICPAC",
   "product": "rainfall_tercile_probability",
   "representation": "dominant_category_map",
   "label": "Rainfall forecast - October - December 2026_Update - IGAD Region",
   "season_label": "OND 2026 (update)",
   "target_start": "2026-10-01",
   "target_end": "2026-12-31",
   "issue_date": null,
   "initialization": null,
   "reference_period": null,
   "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T08:44:54+00:00",
   "sha256": "38789cddd2e31c49b72ec97b821856d1d82d100e75971aef173b8f28d276afa6",
   "page": "https://www.icpac.net/seasonal-forecast/october-december-2026_update/?region=1&resource_type=27",
   "download": "https://www.icpac.net/media/images/GHA-PRCP.original.png",
   "narrative": [
    {
     "text": "Above-normal rainfall is likely across most of the region, with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south-eastern Ethiopia.",
     "locator": "detail page, rainfall forecast item"
    },
    {
     "text": "Across much of the remaining region, the probability of above-normal rainfall is generally in the range of 50–70%.",
     "locator": "detail page, rainfall forecast item"
    }
   ],
   "extraction": {
    "status": "validated",
    "method": "automatic_raster_digitization",
    "review": {
     "reviewer": "Yonas 1",
     "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-09T09:21:08+00:00",
     "decision": "validated",
     "note": null,
     "confirmed_checks": [
      "The map title reads 'Rainfall Forecast for Oct - Dec 2026_Update' (OND 2026, IGAD region).",
      "Colour bars from top to bottom are Above (boxes 40-50 ... 90-100 %), Normal and Below (boxes 40-50 ... 80-90 %).",
      "Axis ticks are 25-50 deg E and 10 deg S - 20 deg N in 5-degree steps (plain latitude-longitude map).",
      "The digitized comparison map (outputs/.../comparisons/maps/icpac_digitized.png) matches the original over Ethiopia.",
      "Grey areas are treated as 'no forecast shown'."
     ],
     "source_sha256": "38789cddd2e31c49b72ec97b821856d1d82d100e75971aef173b8f28d276afa6",
     "content_sha256": "ece360f66b6c5a4eb8adfc5e9f84c3178fa3ca0d16db2907e5e534ac3467b06f",
     "content_hash_note": "Added 2026-10-09 when reviews were bound to the extraction contents; the record contents are unchanged since this review (commit f477821)."
    },
    "note": null
   },
   "refresh": {
    "state": "checked",
    "text": "Checked 2026-10-09: unchanged",
    "checked_utc": "2026-10-09T10:46:19+00:00"
   },
   "figures": [
    {
     "id": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_map",
     "file": "assets/external/ondj2026/icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall.png",
     "caption": "Rainfall forecast - October - December 2026_Update - IGAD Region"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "provider": "EMI",
   "product": "rainfall_tercile_probability",
   "representation": "zone_tercile_probabilities",
   "label": "Kiremt 2026 Assessment and Bega 2026_27 Outlook Hydro met Bulletin",
   "season_label": "Bega (ONDJ) 2026/27",
   "target_start": "2026-10-01",
   "target_end": "2027-01-31",
   "issue_date": null,
   "initialization": null,
   "reference_period": null,
   "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T08:45:10+00:00",
   "sha256": "d55c4d39500d13a9da842a575f735bd07cf2ed08ac924ec8012e197a66e921a1",
   "page": "https://www.ethiomet.gov.et/products/seasonal-hydromet-bulletin/kiremt-2026-assessment-and-bega-2026_27-hydro-met-bulletin/",
   "download": "https://www.ethiomet.gov.et/documents/796/Kiremt_2026_Assesment_and_Bega_2026_27_Outlook_hydromet_Bulletin_pVHz8Fp.pdf",
   "narrative": [
    {
     "text": "October: Humid to wet conditions across southern and southwestern catchments Baro-Akobo, Wabi Shebelle, Genale Dawa, Ogaden, and Abay support initial surface water accumulation.",
     "locator": "PDF page 21"
    },
    {
     "text": "November: Moisture shifts southward; wet to very wet conditions continue in Genale Dawa, Wabi Shebelle, Baro- Akobo, Ogaden, and parts of Abay Rift Valley, while northern areas dry out.",
     "locator": "PDF page 21"
    },
    {
     "text": "December: Dry to arid conditions dominate northern, central, and eastern basins Afar-Denakil, Aysha, middle upper Abay, Tekeze, and Awash. Sub-humid to wet levels persist in Omo-Gibe, Rift Valley, Baro-Akobo, Genale Dawa, Wabi Shebelle, and middle lower Ogaden.",
     "locator": "PDF page 21"
    },
    {
     "text": "January: Arid conditions expand across most northern, central, and eastern catchments. Sub-humid to wet conditions remain confined to Omo-Gibe, Rift Valley, and upper Genale Dawa.",
     "locator": "PDF page 21"
    }
   ],
   "extraction": {
    "status": "validated",
    "method": "draft_figure_transcription",
    "review": {
     "reviewer": "yonas 1",
     "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-09T09:20:42+00:00",
     "decision": "validated",
     "note": null,
     "confirmed_checks": [
      "PDF page 21 figure is titled 'NATIONAL OUTLOOK FOR (ONDJ 2026/27)'.",
      "Printed values per zone, in the printed order A (above), N (normal), B (below): III 55/25/20, VI 60/25/15, VII 60/15/25, VIII 75/15/10.",
      "Zone VII label is partly cut at the figure's left edge ('one VII'); the values are fully legible.",
      "Arrow-tip locations (approximate, +/- 0.5 deg) correspond to the arrow heads in the figure.",
      "No reference period is stated for the probabilities."
     ],
     "source_sha256": "d55c4d39500d13a9da842a575f735bd07cf2ed08ac924ec8012e197a66e921a1",
     "content_sha256": "1fd91db56555f45ff0ab775944d63dd196ca9b212e6f35110ac7b381be7d3428",
     "content_hash_note": "Added 2026-10-09 when reviews were bound to the extraction contents; the record contents are unchanged since this review (commit f477821)."
    },
    "note": null
   },
   "refresh": {
    "state": "checked",
    "text": "Checked 2026-10-09: unchanged; a matching page without a document yet was skipped (Bega 2026/27 Seasonal Climate Forecast)",
    "checked_utc": "2026-10-09T10:46:33+00:00"
   },
   "figures": [
    {
     "id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_page21",
     "file": "assets/external/ondj2026/emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_page21_figure.jpg",
     "caption": "Kiremt 2026 Assessment and Bega 2026_27 Outlook Hydro met Bulletin, PDF page 21"
    }
   ]
  }
 ],
 "maps": [
  {
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "file": "assets/external/ondj2026/emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_anchors.png",
   "name": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_anchors.png"
  },
  {
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "file": "assets/external/ondj2026/emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_regions.png",
   "name": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_regions.png"
  },
  {
   "source_id": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall",
   "file": "assets/external/ondj2026/icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_comparison.png",
   "name": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_comparison.png"
  }
 ],
 "metrics": [
  {
   "metric": "display_official_probabilities",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "where": "III",
   "status": "available",
   "reason": null,
   "basis": null,
   "value": {
    "below": 0.2,
    "near": 0.25,
    "above": 0.55
   }
  },
  {
   "metric": "favoured_category_relationship",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "where": "III",
   "status": "available",
   "reason": null,
   "basis": "reviewed_visual (arrow-tip neighbourhood)",
   "value": "opposing_favoured_categories"
  },
  {
   "metric": "zone_mean_probability",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "where": "III",
   "status": "available",
   "reason": null,
   "basis": "EMI homogeneous rainfall regions as published in 2013 (digitized)",
   "value": {
    "mean_local_probabilities": [
     0.4812277987773143,
     0.24468136918087557,
     0.2740908320418102
    ],
    "cells": 200,
    "region_name": "Southwest",
    "basis": "EMI homogeneous rainfall regions as published in 2013 (digitized)",
    "domain_share": 0.0,
    "area_shares": {
     "season_domain": 0.0
    },
    "relationship": "opposing_favoured_categories",
    "status": "validated"
   }
  },
  {
   "metric": "same_event_probability_difference",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "where": "III",
   "status": "unavailable",
   "reason": "zone_geometry_requires_alignment; official_reference_period_unknown",
   "basis": null,
   "value": null
  },
  {
   "metric": "display_official_probabilities",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "where": "VI",
   "status": "available",
   "reason": null,
   "basis": null,
   "value": {
    "below": 0.15,
    "near": 0.25,
    "above": 0.6
   }
  },
  {
   "metric": "favoured_category_relationship",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "where": "VI",
   "status": "available",
   "reason": null,
   "basis": "reviewed_visual (arrow-tip neighbourhood)",
   "value": "same_favoured_category"
  },
  {
   "metric": "zone_mean_probability",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "where": "VI",
   "status": "available",
   "reason": null,
   "basis": "EMI homogeneous rainfall regions as published in 2013 (digitized)",
   "value": {
    "mean_local_probabilities": [
     0.18645391149131174,
     0.2544467254438628,
     0.5590993630648253
    ],
    "cells": 143,
    "region_name": "South Highland",
    "basis": "EMI homogeneous rainfall regions as published in 2013 (digitized)",
    "domain_share": 0.6643356643356644,
    "area_shares": {
     "season_domain": 0.6643356643356644
    },
    "relationship": "same_favoured_category",
    "status": "validated"
   }
  },
  {
   "metric": "same_event_probability_difference",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "where": "VI",
   "status": "unavailable",
   "reason": "zone_geometry_requires_alignment; official_reference_period_unknown",
   "basis": null,
   "value": null
  },
  {
   "metric": "display_official_probabilities",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "where": "VII",
   "status": "available",
   "reason": null,
   "basis": null,
   "value": {
    "below": 0.25,
    "near": 0.15,
    "above": 0.6
   }
  },
  {
   "metric": "favoured_category_relationship",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "where": "VII",
   "status": "available",
   "reason": null,
   "basis": "reviewed_visual (arrow-tip neighbourhood)",
   "value": "same_favoured_category"
  },
  {
   "metric": "zone_mean_probability",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "where": "VII",
   "status": "available",
   "reason": null,
   "basis": "EMI homogeneous rainfall regions as published in 2013 (digitized)",
   "value": {
    "mean_local_probabilities": [
     0.21786686073696238,
     0.26280019230109514,
     0.5193329469619424
    ],
    "cells": 58,
    "region_name": "South",
    "basis": "EMI homogeneous rainfall regions as published in 2013 (digitized)",
    "domain_share": 0.7068965517241379,
    "area_shares": {
     "season_domain": 0.7068965517241379
    },
    "relationship": "same_favoured_category",
    "status": "validated"
   }
  },
  {
   "metric": "same_event_probability_difference",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "where": "VII",
   "status": "unavailable",
   "reason": "zone_geometry_requires_alignment; official_reference_period_unknown",
   "basis": null,
   "value": null
  },
  {
   "metric": "display_official_probabilities",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "where": "VIII",
   "status": "available",
   "reason": null,
   "basis": null,
   "value": {
    "below": 0.1,
    "near": 0.15,
    "above": 0.75
   }
  },
  {
   "metric": "favoured_category_relationship",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "where": "VIII",
   "status": "available",
   "reason": null,
   "basis": "reviewed_visual (arrow-tip neighbourhood)",
   "value": "same_favoured_category"
  },
  {
   "metric": "zone_mean_probability",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "where": "VIII",
   "status": "available",
   "reason": null,
   "basis": "EMI homogeneous rainfall regions as published in 2013 (digitized)",
   "value": {
    "mean_local_probabilities": [
     0.15640853102925645,
     0.2535109093179616,
     0.5900805596527818
    ],
    "cells": 430,
    "region_name": "South-Southeast lowlands",
    "basis": "EMI homogeneous rainfall regions as published in 2013 (digitized)",
    "domain_share": 0.986046511627907,
    "area_shares": {
     "season_domain": 0.986046511627907
    },
    "relationship": "same_favoured_category",
    "status": "validated"
   }
  },
  {
   "metric": "same_event_probability_difference",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "where": "VIII",
   "status": "unavailable",
   "reason": "zone_geometry_requires_alignment; official_reference_period_unknown",
   "basis": null,
   "value": null
  },
  {
   "metric": "mapped_category_agreement",
   "source_id": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall",
   "where": "All Ethiopia",
   "status": "available",
   "reason": null,
   "basis": "reviewed_digitization",
   "value": {
    "area_share_official_forecast_shown": 0.45693641033562105,
    "area_share_official_no_forecast": 0.5430635896643788,
    "area_share_both_favoured": 0.45693641033562105,
    "agreement_share_where_both_favoured": 0.936470677892434,
    "opposing_share_where_both_favoured": 0.05625462949486755,
    "official_category_shares": {
     "below": 0.00441993805963071,
     "near": 0.0,
     "above": 0.9955800619403692
    },
    "official_interval_shares": {
     "below 40-50%": 0.00441993805963071,
     "above 40-50%": 0.027986533961534707,
     "above 50-60%": 0.09490623700081381,
     "above 60-70%": 0.22280978059914805,
     "above 70-80%": 0.36443795461087175,
     "above 80-90%": 0.23186462215018547,
     "above 90-100%": 0.05357493361781552
    },
    "platform_category_shares": {
     "below": 0.16196333769935997,
     "near": 0.04746704543058617,
     "above": 0.6943319120265263,
     "weak": 0.09623770484352752
    },
    "platform_mean_local_probabilities": [
     0.26622194117883785,
     0.2701462791127706,
     0.4636317797083914
    ],
    "cells": 1484,
    "registration_sensitivity": {
     "shifts_px": 8,
     "agreement_range": [
      0.9378567084677996,
      0.9416942200084182
     ],
     "compared_area_range": [
      0.4501831596838321,
      0.4636968103420534
     ]
    },
    "overlap_majority": {
     "official": "above",
     "platform": "above",
     "official_share": 0.9955800619403692,
     "platform_share": 0.9320507398328034
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "metric": "mapped_category_agreement",
   "source_id": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall",
   "where": "ONDJ R3 (Deyr) rainfall domain",
   "status": "available",
   "reason": null,
   "basis": "reviewed_digitization",
   "value": {
    "area_share_official_forecast_shown": 0.9965414370419713,
    "area_share_official_no_forecast": 0.0034585629580288248,
    "area_share_both_favoured": 0.9965414370419713,
    "agreement_share_where_both_favoured": 0.9982535006586253,
    "opposing_share_where_both_favoured": 0.0,
    "official_category_shares": {
     "below": 0.0,
     "near": 0.0,
     "above": 1.0
    },
    "official_interval_shares": {
     "above 50-60%": 0.033179453222157096,
     "above 60-70%": 0.22012020478042255,
     "above 70-80%": 0.41109242691369924,
     "above 80-90%": 0.2726167444176704,
     "above 90-100%": 0.06299117066605062
    },
    "platform_category_shares": {
     "below": 0.0,
     "near": 0.0017404589634462606,
     "above": 0.9982595410365536,
     "weak": 0.0
    },
    "platform_mean_local_probabilities": [
     0.1605383759410027,
     0.2554195654948821,
     0.5840420585641152
    ],
    "cells": 575,
    "registration_sensitivity": {
     "shifts_px": 8,
     "agreement_range": [
      0.9982443559836661,
      0.9982595410365536
     ],
     "compared_area_range": [
      0.9913507221587236,
      1.0
     ]
    },
    "overlap_majority": {
     "official": "above",
     "platform": "above",
     "official_share": 1.0,
     "platform_share": 0.9982535006586253
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "metric": "same_event_probability_difference",
   "source_id": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall",
   "where": null,
   "status": "unavailable",
   "reason": "target_window_mismatch; official_publishes_only_favoured_category_interval",
   "basis": null,
   "value": null
  },
  {
   "metric": "rainfall_anomaly_difference",
   "source_id": null,
   "where": null,
   "status": "unavailable",
   "reason": "official_amount_anomaly_not_found_in_checked_products",
   "basis": null,
   "value": null
  },
  {
   "metric": "forecast_accuracy",
   "source_id": null,
   "where": null,
   "status": "unavailable",
   "reason": "out_of_scope: needs observations and a separate verification design (see the Verification section)",
   "basis": null,
   "value": null
  }
 ],
 "summary": [
  {
   "id": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_all_ethiopia_finding_summary",
   "area_key": "all_ethiopia",
   "source_id": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall",
   "status": "validated",
   "title": "ICPAC — All Ethiopia",
   "text": "Category agreement of 93.6% within the compared area, which covers 46% of the analysed national area. Predominant category in both: above normal. Periods differ (Oct 2026–Dec 2026 vs Oct 2026–Jan 2027).",
   "evidence_ids": [
    "platform_forecast_ondj",
    "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_map",
    "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_comparison_map"
   ],
   "scope": {
    "compared_area_share": 0.45693641033562105,
    "period": "Oct 2026–Dec 2026 vs Oct 2026–Jan 2027"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_season_domain_finding_summary",
   "area_key": "season_domain",
   "source_id": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall",
   "status": "validated",
   "title": "ICPAC — ONDJ R3 (Deyr) rainfall domain",
   "text": "Category agreement of 99.8% within the compared area, which covers >99% of the analysed domain. Predominant category in both: above normal. Periods differ (Oct 2026–Dec 2026 vs Oct 2026–Jan 2027).",
   "evidence_ids": [
    "platform_forecast_ondj",
    "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_map",
    "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_comparison_map"
   ],
   "scope": {
    "compared_area_share": 0.9965414370419713,
    "period": "Oct 2026–Dec 2026 vs Oct 2026–Jan 2027"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "emi_zones_all_ethiopia_summary",
   "area_key": "all_ethiopia",
   "evidence_area": "all_ethiopia",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "status": "validated",
   "title": "EMI — sampled neighbourhoods near the zone arrows",
   "text": "Opposing categories near the arrow of zone III: platform below normal, EMI above normal. Both favour above normal near the arrows of zones VI, VII and VIII. Sampled neighbourhoods (±0.5°), not complete EMI zones.",
   "evidence_ids": [
    "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_page21",
    "platform_forecast_ondj"
   ],
   "scope": {
    "zones": [
     "III",
     "VI",
     "VII",
     "VIII"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "emi_zones_season_domain_summary",
   "area_key": "season_domain",
   "evidence_area": "all_ethiopia",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "status": "validated",
   "title": "EMI — sampled neighbourhoods near the zone arrows in the domain",
   "text": "Both favour above normal near the arrows of zones VI, VII and VIII. The samples near zones VI and VII only partly overlap the domain (44% and 69% of sample cells); the values describe the whole sample. Sampled neighbourhoods (±0.5°), not complete EMI zones.",
   "evidence_ids": [
    "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_page21",
    "platform_forecast_ondj"
   ],
   "scope": {
    "zones": [
     "VI",
     "VII",
     "VIII"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "emi_whole_zones_all_ethiopia_summary",
   "area_key": "all_ethiopia",
   "evidence_area": "all_ethiopia",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "status": "validated",
   "title": "EMI — whole zones (rainfall regions)",
   "text": "Platform area mean of local probabilities over each EMI zone, below / near / above: zone III (Southwest): opposing: platform below normal, EMI above normal, platform 48% / 25% / 27%; zone VI (South Highland): both favour above normal, platform 19% / 25% / 56%; zone VII (South): both favour above normal, platform 22% / 26% / 52%; zone VIII (South-Southeast lowlands): both favour above normal, platform 16% / 25% / 59%. Zone boundaries: EMI homogeneous rainfall regions as published in 2013 (Korecha and Sorteberg), assumed unchanged.",
   "evidence_ids": [
    "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_page21",
    "platform_forecast_ondj"
   ],
   "scope": {
    "zones": [
     "III",
     "VI",
     "VII",
     "VIII"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "emi_whole_zones_season_domain_summary",
   "area_key": "season_domain",
   "evidence_area": "all_ethiopia",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "status": "validated",
   "title": "EMI — whole zones (rainfall regions)",
   "text": "Platform area mean of local probabilities over each EMI zone, below / near / above: zone VI (South Highland): both favour above normal, platform 19% / 25% / 56% over the whole zone (66% of it in the domain); zone VII (South): both favour above normal, platform 22% / 26% / 52% over the whole zone (71% of it in the domain); zone VIII (South-Southeast lowlands): both favour above normal, platform 16% / 25% / 59% over the whole zone (99% of it in the domain). Zone boundaries: EMI homogeneous rainfall regions as published in 2013 (Korecha and Sorteberg), assumed unchanged.",
   "evidence_ids": [
    "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_page21",
    "platform_forecast_ondj"
   ],
   "scope": {
    "zones": [
     "VI",
     "VII",
     "VIII"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "robustness_summary",
   "area_key": "any",
   "source_id": null,
   "status": "validated",
   "title": "Robustness of the extraction",
   "text": "The EMI category relationships are stable under the tested location and neighbourhood changes (100 variants per zone: half-widths 0.25–1.0°, arrow-tip shifts up to ±0.5°). With the ICPAC map as digitized and shifted by one source pixel in each direction, the All Ethiopia category agreement stays between 93.6% and 94.2%. With the ICPAC map as digitized and shifted by one source pixel in each direction, the ONDJ R3 (Deyr) rainfall domain category agreement stays at 99.8%. These are bounded sensitivity checks of the extraction, not statistical confidence intervals; exact EMI zone comparisons remain unavailable.",
   "evidence_ids": [],
   "scope": {}
  }
 ],
 "emi_table": [
  {
   "id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_zone_III_finding",
   "status": "validated",
   "zone": "III",
   "official": "20% / 25% / 55%",
   "platform": "53% / 29% / 18%",
   "relationship": "Opposing categories",
   "relationship_code": "opposing_favoured_categories",
   "domain_share": 0.0,
   "area_shares": {
    "season_domain": 0.0
   },
   "center": [
    35.73,
    9.4
   ],
   "stable": true,
   "evidence_ids": [
    "platform_forecast_ondj",
    "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_page21"
   ],
   "zone_name": "Southwest",
   "zone_domain_share": 0.0,
   "zone_area_shares": {
    "season_domain": 0.0
   },
   "zone_cells": 200,
   "zone_mean": "48% / 25% / 27%",
   "zone_relationship": "Opposing categories",
   "zone_relationship_code": "opposing_favoured_categories"
  },
  {
   "id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_zone_VI_finding",
   "status": "validated",
   "zone": "VI",
   "official": "15% / 25% / 60%",
   "platform": "19% / 24% / 57%",
   "relationship": "Same category",
   "relationship_code": "same_favoured_category",
   "domain_share": 0.4375,
   "area_shares": {
    "season_domain": 0.4375
   },
   "center": [
    40.36,
    7.18
   ],
   "stable": true,
   "evidence_ids": [
    "platform_forecast_ondj",
    "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_page21"
   ],
   "zone_name": "South Highland",
   "zone_domain_share": 0.6643356643356644,
   "zone_area_shares": {
    "season_domain": 0.6643356643356644
   },
   "zone_cells": 143,
   "zone_mean": "19% / 25% / 56%",
   "zone_relationship": "Same category",
   "zone_relationship_code": "same_favoured_category"
  },
  {
   "id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_zone_VII_finding",
   "status": "validated",
   "zone": "VII",
   "official": "25% / 15% / 60%",
   "platform": "20% / 22% / 58%",
   "relationship": "Same category",
   "relationship_code": "same_favoured_category",
   "domain_share": 0.6875,
   "area_shares": {
    "season_domain": 0.6875
   },
   "center": [
    36.87,
    6.29
   ],
   "stable": true,
   "evidence_ids": [
    "platform_forecast_ondj",
    "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_page21"
   ],
   "zone_name": "South",
   "zone_domain_share": 0.7068965517241379,
   "zone_area_shares": {
    "season_domain": 0.7068965517241379
   },
   "zone_cells": 58,
   "zone_mean": "22% / 26% / 52%",
   "zone_relationship": "Same category",
   "zone_relationship_code": "same_favoured_category"
  },
  {
   "id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_zone_VIII_finding",
   "status": "validated",
   "zone": "VIII",
   "official": "10% / 15% / 75%",
   "platform": "16% / 30% / 54%",
   "relationship": "Same category",
   "relationship_code": "same_favoured_category",
   "domain_share": 1.0,
   "area_shares": {
    "season_domain": 1.0
   },
   "center": [
    43.47,
    6.53
   ],
   "stable": true,
   "evidence_ids": [
    "platform_forecast_ondj",
    "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_page21"
   ],
   "zone_name": "South-Southeast lowlands",
   "zone_domain_share": 0.986046511627907,
   "zone_area_shares": {
    "season_domain": 0.986046511627907
   },
   "zone_cells": 430,
   "zone_mean": "16% / 25% / 59%",
   "zone_relationship": "Same category",
   "zone_relationship_code": "same_favoured_category"
  }
 ],
 "icpac_table": [
  {
   "id": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_sample_III",
   "kind": "sample",
   "status": "validated",
   "location": "Near zone III arrow",
   "zone": "III",
   "official": "no forecast category shown",
   "official_note": "100% of the sample grey (no forecast category shown)",
   "platform": "53% / 29% / 18%",
   "relationship": "Not comparable: ICPAC shows no forecast category here",
   "relationship_code": "unknown",
   "domain_share": 0.0,
   "area_shares": {
    "season_domain": 0.0
   },
   "area_key": null,
   "evidence_ids": [
    "platform_forecast_ondj",
    "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_map",
    "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_comparison_map"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_sample_VI",
   "kind": "sample",
   "status": "validated",
   "location": "Near zone VI arrow",
   "zone": "VI",
   "official": "Above normal 70–80%",
   "official_note": "31% of the sample grey (no forecast category shown)",
   "platform": "19% / 24% / 57%",
   "relationship": "Same category",
   "relationship_code": "same_favoured_category",
   "domain_share": 0.4375,
   "area_shares": {
    "season_domain": 0.4375
   },
   "area_key": null,
   "evidence_ids": [
    "platform_forecast_ondj",
    "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_map",
    "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_comparison_map"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_sample_VII",
   "kind": "sample",
   "status": "validated",
   "location": "Near zone VII arrow",
   "zone": "VII",
   "official": "Above normal 60–70%",
   "official_note": "",
   "platform": "20% / 22% / 58%",
   "relationship": "Same category",
   "relationship_code": "same_favoured_category",
   "domain_share": 0.6875,
   "area_shares": {
    "season_domain": 0.6875
   },
   "area_key": null,
   "evidence_ids": [
    "platform_forecast_ondj",
    "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_map",
    "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_comparison_map"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_sample_VIII",
   "kind": "sample",
   "status": "validated",
   "location": "Near zone VIII arrow",
   "zone": "VIII",
   "official": "Above normal 70–80%",
   "official_note": "75% of shown cells; also Above normal 80–90% (25%)",
   "platform": "16% / 30% / 54%",
   "relationship": "Same category",
   "relationship_code": "same_favoured_category",
   "domain_share": 1.0,
   "area_shares": {
    "season_domain": 1.0
   },
   "area_key": null,
   "evidence_ids": [
    "platform_forecast_ondj",
    "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_map",
    "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_comparison_map"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_all_ethiopia_finding_row",
   "kind": "area",
   "status": "validated",
   "location": "All Ethiopia",
   "zone": null,
   "official": "Above normal (most often 70–80%)",
   "official_note": "shown on 46% of the area; 54% grey (no forecast category shown)",
   "platform": "27% / 27% / 46%",
   "relationship": "Same category (where both show a category)",
   "relationship_code": "same_favoured_category",
   "domain_share": null,
   "area_key": "all_ethiopia",
   "evidence_ids": [
    "platform_forecast_ondj",
    "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_map",
    "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_comparison_map"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_season_domain_finding_row",
   "kind": "area",
   "status": "validated",
   "location": "ONDJ R3 (Deyr) rainfall domain",
   "zone": null,
   "official": "Above normal (most often 70–80%)",
   "official_note": "shown on >99% of the area; <1% grey (no forecast category shown)",
   "platform": "16% / 26% / 58%",
   "relationship": "Same category (where both show a category)",
   "relationship_code": "same_favoured_category",
   "domain_share": null,
   "area_key": "season_domain",
   "evidence_ids": [
    "platform_forecast_ondj",
    "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_map",
    "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_comparison_map"
   ]
  }
 ],
 "paragraphs": [
  {
   "id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_zone_III_finding_text",
   "finding": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_zone_III_finding",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "area": "EMI zone III",
   "area_key": "zone",
   "status": "validated",
   "relationship": "opposing_favoured_categories",
   "text": "The platform favours below-normal rainfall near the arrow of EMI zone III, while the EMI outlook favours above-normal rainfall. This indicates disagreement in the favoured rainfall category. EMI prints 20% / 25% / 55% (below / near / above); the platform's area mean of local probabilities in the sampled neighbourhood is 53% / 29% / 18%. Over the whole zone (the EMI Southwest rainfall region), the platform area mean is 48% / 25% / 27%: opposing categories.",
   "evidence_ids": [
    "platform_forecast_ondj",
    "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_page21"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_zone_VI_finding_text",
   "finding": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_zone_VI_finding",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "area": "EMI zone VI",
   "area_key": "zone",
   "status": "validated",
   "relationship": "same_favoured_category",
   "text": "Both outlooks favour wetter-than-normal conditions near the arrow of EMI zone VI. EMI prints 15% / 25% / 60% (below / near / above); the platform's area mean of local probabilities in the sampled neighbourhood is 19% / 24% / 57%. Over the whole zone (the EMI South Highland rainfall region), the platform area mean is 19% / 25% / 56%: same category.",
   "evidence_ids": [
    "platform_forecast_ondj",
    "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_page21"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_zone_VII_finding_text",
   "finding": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_zone_VII_finding",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "area": "EMI zone VII",
   "area_key": "zone",
   "status": "validated",
   "relationship": "same_favoured_category",
   "text": "Both outlooks favour wetter-than-normal conditions near the arrow of EMI zone VII. EMI prints 25% / 15% / 60% (below / near / above); the platform's area mean of local probabilities in the sampled neighbourhood is 20% / 22% / 58%. Over the whole zone (the EMI South rainfall region), the platform area mean is 22% / 26% / 52%: same category.",
   "evidence_ids": [
    "platform_forecast_ondj",
    "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_page21"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_zone_VIII_finding_text",
   "finding": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_zone_VIII_finding",
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "area": "EMI zone VIII",
   "area_key": "zone",
   "status": "validated",
   "relationship": "same_favoured_category",
   "text": "Both outlooks favour wetter-than-normal conditions near the arrow of EMI zone VIII. EMI prints 10% / 15% / 75% (below / near / above); the platform's area mean of local probabilities in the sampled neighbourhood is 16% / 30% / 54%. Over the whole zone (the EMI South-Southeast lowlands rainfall region), the platform area mean is 16% / 25% / 59%: same category.",
   "evidence_ids": [
    "platform_forecast_ondj",
    "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_page21"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "emi_shared_limitation",
   "finding": null,
   "source_id": "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook",
   "area": null,
   "area_key": "zone",
   "status": "validated",
   "relationship": null,
   "text": "For every EMI zone, the platform value near the arrow is the area mean of local probabilities within ±0.5° of the arrow tip, not the complete EMI zone: the figure publishes no zone boundaries and no reference period, so exact zone probability differences are not calculated.",
   "evidence_ids": []
  },
  {
   "id": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_all_ethiopia_finding_text",
   "finding": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_all_ethiopia_finding",
   "source_id": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall",
   "area": "All Ethiopia",
   "area_key": "all_ethiopia",
   "status": "validated",
   "relationship": "same_favoured_category",
   "text": "Above-normal rainfall is the predominant tendency in both outlooks over their shared displayed area in Ethiopia, with localized disagreement. ICPAC shows a favoured category on 46% of Ethiopia and no forecast category shown (the legend does not explain the grey areas) on 54%; where it shows one it favours above normal on >99%, most often at 70-80% and 80-90%. The platform favours above normal on 69% and below normal on 16% of Ethiopia. There is category agreement of 93.6% within the compared area, which covers 46% of the analysed national area; opposite categories (above vs below) on 6% of the compared area. ICPAC publishes only the favoured category and its probability interval, so probabilities are not differenced. The official outlook covers Oct 2026–Dec 2026 and the platform Oct 2026–Jan 2027 (Jan 2027 only in the platform), so this compares spatial tendencies, not probabilities for the same seasonal event.",
   "evidence_ids": [
    "platform_forecast_ondj",
    "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_map",
    "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_comparison_map"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_season_domain_finding_text",
   "finding": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_season_domain_finding",
   "source_id": "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall",
   "area": "ONDJ R3 (Deyr) rainfall domain",
   "area_key": "season_domain",
   "status": "validated",
   "relationship": "same_favoured_category",
   "text": "Above-normal rainfall is the predominant tendency in both outlooks over their shared displayed area in the ONDJ R3 (Deyr) rainfall domain, with localized disagreement. ICPAC shows a favoured category on >99% of the ONDJ R3 (Deyr) rainfall domain and no forecast category shown (the legend does not explain the grey areas) on <1%; where it shows one it favours above normal on 100%, most often at 70-80% and 80-90%. The platform favours above normal on >99% and below normal on 0% of the ONDJ R3 (Deyr) rainfall domain. There is category agreement of 99.8% within the compared area, which covers >99% of the analysed domain. ICPAC publishes only the favoured category and its probability interval, so probabilities are not differenced. The official outlook covers Oct 2026–Dec 2026 and the platform Oct 2026–Jan 2027 (Jan 2027 only in the platform), so this compares spatial tendencies, not probabilities for the same seasonal event.",
   "evidence_ids": [
    "platform_forecast_ondj",
    "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_map",
    "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_comparison_map"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "not_calculated",
   "finding": null,
   "source_id": null,
   "area": null,
   "area_key": "any",
   "status": "validated",
   "relationship": null,
   "text": "Not calculated: rainfall-anomaly differences, because no official rainfall-amount anomaly product was found in the checked ICPAC and EMI products; which forecast is more accurate, because that needs observations and a separate verification design (see Verification); same-event probability differences, because the target windows or spatial supports differ and ICPAC publishes only favoured-category intervals.",
   "evidence_ids": []
  }
 ],
 "evidence": {
  "platform_forecast_ondj": {
   "label": "Platform ONDJ 2026/27 forecast data (NetCDF)",
   "kind": "platform",
   "links": [
    {
     "label": "Platform map",
     "href": "assets/maps/ondj2026/forecast/ONDJ/{view}/tercile_outlook.png"
    },
    {
     "label": "Platform data (NetCDF)",
     "href": "downloads/data/ondj2026/ONDJ_forecast_2026.nc"
    }
   ]
  },
  "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_map": {
   "label": "ICPAC figure: Rainfall forecast - October - December 2026_Update - IGAD Region",
   "kind": "official_figure",
   "links": [
    {
     "label": "Official figure",
     "href": "assets/external/ondj2026/icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall.png"
    },
    {
     "label": "Original file",
     "href": "https://www.icpac.net/media/images/GHA-PRCP.original.png"
    }
   ]
  },
  "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_record": {
   "label": "ICPAC source record",
   "kind": "source_record",
   "links": [
    {
     "label": "Source record",
     "href": "downloads/ondj2026_comparison_sources.json"
    }
   ]
  },
  "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_page21": {
   "label": "EMI figure: Kiremt 2026 Assessment and Bega 2026_27 Outlook Hydro met Bulletin, PDF page 21",
   "kind": "official_figure",
   "links": [
    {
     "label": "Official figure",
     "href": "assets/external/ondj2026/emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_page21_figure.jpg"
    },
    {
     "label": "Original PDF page",
     "href": "https://www.ethiomet.gov.et/documents/796/Kiremt_2026_Assesment_and_Bega_2026_27_Outlook_hydromet_Bulletin_pVHz8Fp.pdf#page=21"
    }
   ]
  },
  "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_record": {
   "label": "EMI source record",
   "kind": "source_record",
   "links": [
    {
     "label": "Source record",
     "href": "downloads/ondj2026_comparison_sources.json"
    }
   ]
  },
  "emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_comparison_map": {
   "label": "Comparison map",
   "kind": "comparison_map",
   "links": [
    {
     "label": "Comparison map",
     "href": "assets/external/ondj2026/emi_bega_2026_27_outlook_regions.png"
    }
   ]
  },
  "icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_comparison_map": {
   "label": "Comparison map",
   "kind": "comparison_map",
   "links": [
    {
     "label": "Comparison map",
     "href": "assets/external/ondj2026/icpac_ond_2026_update_rainfall_comparison.png"
    }
   ]
  }
 },
 "notes": [
  "Area means are area-weighted means of local grid-cell probabilities, not probabilities of area-mean rainfall.",
  "Favoured category: for the platform and EMI, the untied leading tercile where it reaches 40% (the map display rule), otherwise no clear category; for ICPAC, the dominant category ICPAC printed, including its 33–40% intervals.",
  "ICPAC covers Oct–Dec 2026 and the platform Oct–Jan 2027: a probability for one period cannot be built by averaging monthly probabilities of the other, so they are compared only as spatial tendencies."
 ],
 "stale": [],
 "rerun": "python scripts\\run_operational.py --config config\\cycles\\sep_2026_ondj.json --workflow products --compare-external",
 "created_utc": "2026-10-11T00:42:26+00:00",
 "engine": "rules v2",
 "reference_layers": [
  {
   "id": "emi_rainfall_regions",
   "provider": "EMI homogeneous rainfall regions (as published by Korecha and Sorteberg 2013)",
   "status": "validated",
   "note": null,
   "citation": "Korecha, D., and A. Sorteberg (2013), Validation of operational seasonal rainfall forecast in Ethiopia, Water Resources Research, 49(11), 7681-7697, doi:10.1002/2013WR013760 (figure: homogeneous rainfall regions currently used for the preparation of seasonal rainfall forecast in Ethiopia).",
   "doi": "10.1002/2013WR013760",
   "url": "https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013WR013760",
   "license_note": "Publisher's terms (Wiley); the figure is not redistributed. Only the digitized region grid derived from it is stored and published, with this citation.",
   "review": {
    "reviewer": "Yonas M.",
    "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-09T14:10:38+00:00",
    "decision": "validated",
    "note": null,
    "confirmed_checks": [
     "The digitized regions (QC figure) follow the thick boundaries of the source figure for all eight regions I-VIII.",
     "The strip along the southern border (about 36-40 deg E, 4-5 deg N) has no separating line in the source and is assigned to region VIII.",
     "Region numbers match the EMI Bega 2026/27 zone labels: III Southwest, VI South Highland, VII South, VIII South-Southeast lowlands (each EMI arrow tip falls in the region of the same number).",
     "The region layout is the one published in 2013; using it for the 2026/27 zones assumes EMI still uses these regions."
    ],
    "source_sha256": "494eeca4b1fde746c7fc1a264763c3105b7ecd96d94eceeadcf7e4e4d4cc5454",
    "content_sha256": "2c988dfb9fe92136df9667c87a7b0f671ed7b09b0e07658ee3b96ac23e1b387b"
   },
   "region_names": {
    "I": "Northeast",
    "II": "Northwest",
    "III": "Southwest",
    "IV": "Central",
    "V": "East",
    "VI": "South Highland",
    "VII": "South",
    "VIII": "South-Southeast lowlands"
   }
  }
 ],
 "observed": null
}