{ "cycle": "FMAM 2026", "initialization": "2026-02-01", "initialization_month": "February", "built_utc": "2026-10-19 12:20 UTC", "release": "2026-10-19.0", "code_version": "17707ef", "repository": "https://github.com/YonSci/calibrated_seasonal_rainfall", "record": { "Model initialization": "1 February 2026 · ECMWF SEAS5 (system 51), 51 members", "Target period": "1 Feb 2026 – 31 May 2026", "Forecast record": "Frozen 10 Oct 2026. Recalibrated with CHIRPS v3.0 when its observations for Feb 2026–May 2026 were already available (the fit itself uses 1993–2025 only): a retrospective reconstruction, not a forecast frozen before its outcome (SHA-256 manifest)", "Publication status": "Research reconstruction: produced after the initialization date with the published method; not an official EMI or ICPAC forecast", "Reference period": "CHIRPS v3.0 FMAM 1993–2025 (33 seasons)", "Observations processed through": "May 2026 (Feb, Mar, Apr, May)", "CHIRPS archive": "Official CHIRPS v3.0 monthly listing checked 19 Oct 2026: monthly files through Sep 2026", "Verification last run": "16 Oct 2026", "Method / version": "Shared climatology blend (λ = 0.40 for FMAM) · code 17707ef" }, "rainfall_domain": { "view": "fmam_rainfall_domain", "definition": "Fixed 1993-2025 CHIRPS v3.0 domain: cells where mean FMAM rainfall (actual-calendar monthly totals, February 29 included) is >= 100 mm and FMAM brings >= 20% of the mean annual rainfall (ratio of climatological means); complete baseline required; no patch removal or smoothing. Selected in assessment fmam_chirps_domain_review_v1. The same domain is used for the season and each of its months. The included share of Ethiopia describes this rule; it is not an independently established official share of FMAM-dependent area." }, "reference_period": "1993–2025", "targets": [ { "target": "FMAM 2026", "start": "2026-02-01", "end": "2026-05-31", "status": { "code": "published", "text": "Verification published" }, "verified_areas": [ "all_ethiopia", "fmam_main_season_domain", "fmam_rainfall_domain" ] }, { "target": "Feb 2026", "start": "2026-02-01", "end": "2026-02-28", "status": { "code": "published", "text": "Verification published" }, "verified_areas": [ "all_ethiopia", "fmam_main_season_domain", "fmam_rainfall_domain" ] }, { "target": "Mar 2026", "start": "2026-03-01", "end": "2026-03-31", "status": { "code": "published", "text": "Verification published" }, "verified_areas": [ "all_ethiopia", "fmam_main_season_domain", "fmam_rainfall_domain" ] }, { "target": "Apr 2026", "start": "2026-04-01", "end": "2026-04-30", "status": { "code": "published", "text": "Verification published" 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