Seasonal Rainfall Outlook Platform
Mar 2026 outlook · FMAM 2026 — January initialization · FMAM rainfall contribution domain

January initialization · ECMWF SEAS5 calibrated with CHIRPS · FMAM rainfall contribution domain

Mar 2026 rainfall outlook

Research reconstruction · not an official EMI or ICPAC forecastVerification published

The forecast is close to climatology in the FMAM rainfall contribution domain: no tercile stands out on average. Mean forecast rainfall is 72 mm against a 1993–2025 average of 62 mm (+10 mm, +16%).

Average local probability

Below normal 31%Near normal 34%Above normal 35%

Each grid cell has its own tercile probabilities; these are their averages over the 100% of the area that has probabilities. They are not the probability that the area-total rainfall falls in a category.

Map of Mar 2026 tercile probabilities for FMAM rainfall contribution domain
Tercile probabilities, Mar 2026, FMAM rainfall contribution domain. Open the map viewer below for other products. Smoothed for display; switch to Grid cells to see the values as computed.

Rainfall amount

Forecast mean72 mm
1993–2025 average62 mm
Anomaly+10 mm (+16%)

Amounts cover 100% of the area. They come from the amount-corrected ensemble, calibrated separately from the probabilities, so the two can differ slightly.

Forecast signal

No clear tilt (close to climatology)

Largest area-average probability 35%, compared with a one-third reference. The local climatological probabilities (observed tercile frequencies in the training years) are close to, but not exactly, one-third. Based on probabilities only.

Historical skill — FMAM rainfall contribution domain

Small estimated improvement; skill uncertain

Probability skill (RPSS) +0.001 for Mar, cross-validated 1993–2016 (95% interval −0.012 to +0.012); better than climatology in 12 of 24 years. One-target p = 0.451; adjusted for testing 5 targets (Holm), p = 0.901 (not significant after adjustment). Details

Signal strength describes how far this forecast's probabilities depart from climatology. Historical skill describes how forecasts made the same way scored in past years. A strong signal is not a confidence rating.

All targets in this cycle

← Feb 2026Apr 2026 →

The targets as a table
FMAM 2026 targets, FMAM rainfall contribution domain. Probabilities are average local probabilities.
TargetPeriodBelow / near / aboveProbability coverageAnomalyVerification status
FMAM 20261 Feb 2026 – 31 May 202635% / 31% / 34%100% of area−3 mmVerification published
Feb 20261 Feb 2026 – 28 Feb 202630% / 36% / 35%91% of area+1 mmVerification published
Mar 20261 Mar 2026 – 31 Mar 202631% / 34% / 35%100% of area+10 mmVerification published
Apr 20261 Apr 2026 – 30 Apr 202635% / 32% / 33%100% of area−4 mmVerification published
May 20261 May 2026 – 31 May 202636% / 35% / 30%100% of area−8 mmVerification published

Probability coverage is the share of the area with tercile probabilities; averages are over that share only. Cells with very little reference-period rainfall have no terciles.

Maps

How to read this map

Grey, white and blank areas; smoothing and resolution

Light grey: outside the selected area. Dark grey: inside the area but without values, for example cells where reference-period rainfall is too small for tercile categories, or (percent maps) below 10 mm. White on tercile maps: no category reaches 40%, or two categories tie. Sea cells have no CHIRPS data.

Smoothing and resolution. Maps are drawn on a 12× finer display grid with light Gaussian smoothing (σ = 0.6 grid cells); all numbers on this page use the original 0.25° grid. The model's own resolution is about 1°: each model cell covers 4×4 grid cells, so detail within a 1° box comes from local CHIRPS rainfall statistics used in the amount correction, not from the model.