Seasonal rainfall outlooks

Calibrated ECMWF SEAS5 outlooks for Ethiopia, one per forecast cycle. Each cycle has its outlook and maps for every target and area, the verification against CHIRPS once a period is complete, and the historical performance of the method.

• ONDJ 2026/27 — September initialization
  ONDJ 2026/27, ONDJ R3 (Deyr) rainfall domain: strong tilt toward above normal · below / near / above 16% / 26% / 58%
  Target period ongoing (ends 31 Jan 2027) · 0 of 5 targets verified
• JJAS 2026 — May initialization
  JJAS 2026, JJAS R1+R2 rainfall domain: moderate tilt toward below normal · below / near / above 51% / 27% / 22%
  Verification published · 5 of 5 targets verified
• FMAM 2026 — February initialization
  FMAM 2026, FMAM rainfall contribution domain: moderate tilt toward above normal · below / near / above 23% / 32% / 44%
  Verification published · 5 of 5 targets verified
• FMAM 2026 — January initialization
  FMAM 2026, FMAM rainfall contribution domain: no clear tilt (close to climatology) · below / near / above 35% / 31% / 34%
  Verification published · 5 of 5 targets verified