Shadow and validation · January initialization · FMAM and its months
Independent validation seasons
Every method scored on the seasons after the benchmark (one season each; the suggestions need at least three).
2026: blended tercile RPSS against CHIRPS
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | -0.037 | +0.049 | +0.010 | +0.028 | -0.026 |
| CDF-transform | -0.127 | +0.131 | +0.007 | +0.026 | -0.037 |
| Delta Change | -0.115 | +0.068 | +0.012 | +0.020 | -0.025 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | -0.143 | +0.105 | +0.010 | +0.025 | -0.027 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | -0.099 | +0.104 | +0.008 | +0.021 | -0.032 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | -0.133 | +0.104 | +0.014 | +0.027 | -0.018 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | -0.037 | +0.024 | +0.001 | +0.023 | -0.042 |
| Linear Scaling | -0.034 | +0.025 | +0.001 | +0.023 | -0.042 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | -0.037 | +0.049 | +0.010 | +0.028 | -0.026 |
| Power Transformation | -0.111 | +0.126 | +0.017 | +0.028 | -0.015 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | -0.117 | +0.137 | +0.007 | +0.027 | -0.025 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | -0.041 | +0.022 | +0.004 | +0.029 | -0.027 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | -0.090 | +0.133 | +0.012 | +0.028 | -0.023 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | -0.034 | +0.051 | +0.010 | +0.029 | -0.032 |
2026: amount CRPSS against CHIRPS
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | -0.209 | +0.101 | +0.014 | +0.032 | -0.066 |
| CDF-transform | -0.615 | +0.198 | -0.004 | +0.019 | -0.099 |
| Delta Change | -0.326 | +0.187 | +0.037 | +0.018 | -0.067 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | -0.397 | +0.204 | +0.017 | +0.020 | -0.083 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | -0.164 | +0.131 | +0.018 | +0.018 | -0.078 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | -0.263 | +0.140 | +0.020 | +0.013 | -0.059 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | -0.477 | +0.136 | -0.054 | -0.025 | -0.103 |
| Linear Scaling | -0.537 | +0.137 | -0.058 | -0.027 | -0.104 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | -0.209 | +0.101 | +0.014 | +0.032 | -0.066 |
| Power Transformation | -0.300 | +0.157 | +0.017 | +0.025 | -0.061 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | -0.410 | +0.233 | -0.005 | +0.019 | -0.086 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | -0.445 | +0.097 | -0.012 | +0.030 | -0.086 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | -0.210 | +0.135 | +0.014 | +0.017 | -0.064 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | -0.199 | +0.101 | +0.010 | +0.032 | -0.072 |