Amount and range shadow · February initialization · FMAM and its months
Not a published forecast. Since 2026-10-14, each cycle also runs the EMOS distribution model (censored shifted gamma, fitted on the cycle's reference years) and records its median and 10–90% range for every target next to the MVS-corrected ensemble. In Phase 2 the EMOS 10-90% intervals held 76-84% of observed totals where the MVS-corrected ensemble's held 46-76% (80% is calibrated), and EMOS was confirmed better in CRPS for the January-initialized FMAM season and JJAS September. The shadow builds independent evidence season by season before any amount or range product is considered. Each season is scored once its CHIRPS observations exist; any change to what is published is a separate decision after several seasons.
2026 forecast · 5 of 5 targets observed so far
| Target | Climatology (mm) | Shadow: median (10–90%), mm | MVS ensemble: median (10–90%), mm | Range width / climatology (shadow / MVS) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb | 19 | 14 (5–31) | 14 (10–27) | 1.34 / 0.85 |
| Mar | 53 | 45 (12–118) | 48 (22–106) | 2.12 / 1.78 |
| Apr | 99 | 101 (44–197) | 119 (59–197) | 1.78 / 1.64 |
| May | 110 | 100 (45–182) | 99 (52–172) | 1.43 / 1.28 |
| FMAM | 278 | 286 (186–420) | 301 (206–413) | 0.94 / 0.86 |
| Target | Coverage, shadow | Coverage, MVS | CRPSS, shadow | CRPSS, MVS | Median pinball, shadow (mm) | Median pinball, MVS (mm) | RPSS, shadow terciles | RPSS, published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb | 92% | 58% | -0.002 | +0.018 | 3.7 | 3.6 | -0.030 | -0.009 |
| Mar | 64% | 52% | +0.078 | +0.067 | 32.6 | 31.2 | +0.131 | +0.058 |
| Apr | 76% | 65% | -0.185 | -0.486 | 20.9 | 28.0 | -0.152 | -0.134 |
| May | 95% | 89% | -0.051 | -0.032 | 12.1 | 12.2 | -0.024 | +0.002 |
| FMAM | 88% | 72% | -0.017 | -0.091 | 33.1 | 35.0 | -0.046 | -0.013 |
Feb 2026: maps
Mar 2026: maps
Apr 2026: maps
May 2026: maps
FMAM 2026: maps
Run at commit a2437e2.
All cycles together: Amount and range shadow.