Seasonal Rainfall Outlook Platform
Feb 2026 outlook · FMAM 2026 — February initialization · FMAM rainfall contribution domain

February initialization · ECMWF SEAS5 calibrated with CHIRPS · FMAM rainfall contribution domain

Feb 2026 rainfall outlook

Research reconstruction · not an official EMI or ICPAC forecastVerification published

The forecast leans toward near normal rainfall in the FMAM rainfall contribution domain: averaged over the area, the local probability of near normal is 39%, against about 33% for climatology. Mean forecast rainfall is 17 mm against a 1993–2025 average of 20 mm (−3 mm, −13%).

Average local probability

Below normal 33%Near normal 39%Above normal 29%

Each grid cell has its own tercile probabilities; these are their averages over the 91% of the area that has probabilities. They are not the probability that the area-total rainfall falls in a category.

Map of Feb 2026 tercile probabilities for FMAM rainfall contribution domain
Tercile probabilities, Feb 2026, FMAM rainfall contribution domain. Open the map viewer below for other products. Smoothed for display; switch to Grid cells to see the values as computed.

Rainfall amount

Forecast mean17 mm
1993–2025 average20 mm
Anomaly−3 mm (−13%)

Amounts cover 100% of the area. They come from the amount-corrected ensemble, calibrated separately from the probabilities, so the two can differ slightly.

Forecast signal

Weak tilt toward near normal

Largest area-average probability 39%, compared with a one-third reference. The local climatological probabilities (observed tercile frequencies in the training years) are close to, but not exactly, one-third. Based on probabilities only.

Historical skill — FMAM rainfall contribution domain

Moderate improvement over climatology (interval above zero)

Probability skill (RPSS) +0.137 for Feb, cross-validated 1993–2016 (95% interval +0.050 to +0.234); better than climatology in 16 of 24 years. One-target p = 0.002; adjusted for testing 5 targets (Holm), p = 0.012 (still significant). Details

Signal strength describes how far this forecast's probabilities depart from climatology. Historical skill describes how forecasts made the same way scored in past years. A strong signal is not a confidence rating.

All targets in this cycle

← FMAM 2026Mar 2026 →

The targets as a table
FMAM 2026 targets, FMAM rainfall contribution domain. Probabilities are average local probabilities.
TargetPeriodBelow / near / aboveProbability coverageAnomalyVerification status
FMAM 20261 Feb 2026 – 31 May 202623% / 32% / 44%100% of area+37 mmVerification published
Feb 20261 Feb 2026 – 28 Feb 202633% / 39% / 29%91% of area−3 mmVerification published
Mar 20261 Mar 2026 – 31 Mar 202631% / 34% / 36%100% of area+7 mmVerification published
Apr 20261 Apr 2026 – 30 Apr 202627% / 31% / 42%100% of area+32 mmVerification published
May 20261 May 2026 – 31 May 202634% / 34% / 32%100% of area−2 mmVerification published

Probability coverage is the share of the area with tercile probabilities; averages are over that share only. Cells with very little reference-period rainfall have no terciles.

Maps

How to read this map

Grey, white and blank areas; smoothing and resolution

Light grey: outside the selected area. Dark grey: inside the area but without values, for example cells where reference-period rainfall is too small for tercile categories, or (percent maps) below 10 mm. White on tercile maps: no category reaches 40%, or two categories tie. Sea cells have no CHIRPS data.

Smoothing and resolution. Maps are drawn on a 12× finer display grid with light Gaussian smoothing (σ = 0.6 grid cells); all numbers on this page use the original 0.25° grid. The model's own resolution is about 1°: each model cell covers 4×4 grid cells, so detail within a 1° box comes from local CHIRPS rainfall statistics used in the amount correction, not from the model.