Shadow and validation · May initialization · JJAS and its months
Independent validation seasons
Every method scored on the seasons after the benchmark (one season each; the suggestions need at least three).
2026: blended tercile RPSS against CHIRPS
| Method | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | JJAS |
|---|
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | +0.125 | +0.198 | +0.277 | +0.107 | +0.352 |
| CDF-transform | +0.116 | +0.150 | +0.219 | +0.108 | +0.298 |
| Delta Change | +0.123 | +0.172 | +0.235 | +0.122 | +0.362 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | +0.108 | +0.152 | +0.214 | +0.103 | +0.324 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | +0.127 | +0.202 | +0.292 | +0.091 | +0.336 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | +0.133 | +0.213 | +0.282 | +0.128 | +0.362 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | +0.119 | +0.176 | +0.257 | +0.107 | +0.333 |
| Linear Scaling | +0.128 | +0.175 | +0.260 | +0.107 | +0.333 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | +0.125 | +0.198 | +0.277 | +0.107 | +0.352 |
| Power Transformation | +0.144 | +0.216 | +0.290 | +0.127 | +0.361 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | +0.110 | +0.153 | +0.215 | +0.101 | +0.281 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | +0.095 | +0.148 | +0.212 | +0.108 | +0.280 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | +0.148 | +0.215 | +0.295 | +0.126 | +0.362 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | +0.124 | +0.212 | +0.295 | +0.119 | +0.364 |
2026: amount CRPSS against CHIRPS
| Method | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | JJAS |
|---|
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | +0.404 | +0.227 | +0.430 | +0.182 | +0.532 |
| CDF-transform | +0.314 | +0.157 | +0.433 | +0.143 | +0.469 |
| Delta Change | +0.313 | +0.164 | +0.451 | +0.194 | +0.471 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | +0.321 | +0.173 | +0.438 | +0.167 | +0.473 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | +0.392 | +0.224 | +0.443 | +0.187 | +0.502 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | +0.391 | +0.258 | +0.455 | +0.189 | +0.534 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | +0.286 | +0.118 | +0.419 | +0.174 | +0.441 |
| Linear Scaling | +0.283 | +0.116 | +0.416 | +0.169 | +0.441 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | +0.404 | +0.227 | +0.430 | +0.182 | +0.532 |
| Power Transformation | +0.400 | +0.243 | +0.454 | +0.187 | +0.536 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | +0.320 | +0.168 | +0.434 | +0.156 | +0.468 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | +0.306 | +0.172 | +0.443 | +0.166 | +0.469 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | +0.396 | +0.247 | +0.451 | +0.193 | +0.535 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | +0.400 | +0.240 | +0.437 | +0.180 | +0.532 |