Screening · February initialization · FMAM and its months
✓ = screening pass within the method (Holm across its targets); ✓✓ = also passes with Holm across all methods and targets (national aggregate only). A pass is screening evidence, not an adoption decision. Bold: the operational method. Skill is against the CHIRPS training climatology (0 = no better than climatology).
Region for the result tables
All Ethiopia (national aggregate)
| Method | Amount CRPSS 1993–2016 | Amount CRPSS 2017–2025 | Tercile RPSS (no blend) 1993–2016 | Tercile RPSS (no blend) 2017–2025 | Mean bias (mm) | MAE (mm) | Correlation | Spread–error | Reliability index | Members ≤ 1 mm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | -0.585 | -0.666 | -0.385 | -0.636 | -75.0 | 99.4 | 0.22 | 0.50 | 0.68 | 0.0% |
| Linear Scaling | -0.023 | +0.086 | +0.002 | +0.094 | +0.2 | 70.2 | 0.12 | 1.06 | 0.08 | 0.0% |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | -0.007 | +0.071 | +0.005 | +0.096 | +0.1 | 69.2 | 0.09 | 0.91 | 0.09 | 0.0% |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | -0.007 | +0.070 | +0.005 | +0.095 | +0.1 | 69.2 | 0.09 | 0.92 | 0.09 | 0.0% |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | -0.005 | +0.073 | +0.006 | +0.101 | +0.1 | 69.1 | 0.09 | 0.91 | 0.09 | 0.0% |
| Power Transformation | -0.008 | +0.074 | +0.004 | +0.104 | +0.0 | 69.2 | 0.10 | 0.92 | 0.09 | 0.0% |
| Delta Change | -0.010 | +0.075 | +0.001 | +0.086 | +0.2 | 70.2 | 0.12 | 1.00 | 0.03 | 0.0% |
| Local Intensity Scaling | -0.022 | +0.086 | +0.002 | +0.094 | +0.2 | 70.2 | 0.12 | 1.05 | 0.08 | 0.0% |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | -0.018 | +0.059 | -0.005 | +0.081 | +0.1 | 69.2 | 0.09 | 0.92 | 0.10 | 0.0% |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | -0.005 | +0.073 | +0.006 | +0.103 | +0.1 | 69.1 | 0.09 | 0.90 | 0.10 | 0.0% |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | -0.035 | +0.072 | -0.023 | +0.100 | +0.2 | 70.5 | 0.12 | 0.91 | 0.11 | 0.0% |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | -0.048 | +0.075 | -0.034 | +0.114 | +2.0 | 70.7 | 0.13 | 0.92 | 0.15 | 0.0% |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | -0.059 | +0.063 | -0.045 | +0.111 | -4.6 | 70.1 | 0.13 | 0.81 | 0.25 | 0.7% |
| CDF-transform | -0.041 | +0.072 | -0.030 | +0.100 | +0.6 | 70.6 | 0.12 | 0.91 | 0.10 | 0.0% |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | -0.007 | +0.071 | +0.005 | +0.096 | +0.1 | 69.2 | 0.09 | 0.91 | 0.09 | 0.0% |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | -0.184 | -0.288 | -0.233 | -0.238 | -0.585 |
| Linear Scaling | -0.031 | -0.091 | -0.011 | -0.013 | -0.023 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | +0.240 | -0.034 | -0.001 | -0.005 | -0.007 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | +0.246 ✓ | -0.032 | -0.000 | -0.005 | -0.007 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | +0.267 ✓ | -0.017 ✓ | +0.001 | -0.002 | -0.005 |
| Power Transformation | +0.202 | -0.020 | -0.001 | +0.000 | -0.008 |
| Delta Change | +0.091 | -0.055 | +0.001 | +0.004 | -0.010 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | +0.040 | -0.082 | -0.011 | -0.012 | -0.022 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | +0.248 | -0.028 | -0.012 | -0.011 | -0.018 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | +0.245 | -0.018 | +0.001 | -0.002 | -0.005 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | -0.016 | -0.089 | -0.024 | -0.017 | -0.035 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | +0.158 | -0.113 | -0.035 | -0.019 | -0.048 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | -0.077 | -0.105 | -0.037 | -0.023 | -0.059 |
| CDF-transform | -0.367 | -0.112 | -0.030 | -0.021 | -0.041 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | +0.240 | -0.034 | -0.001 | -0.005 | -0.007 |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | -0.123 | -0.224 | -0.193 | -0.213 | -0.385 |
| Linear Scaling | +0.044 | -0.026 | +0.000 | +0.001 | +0.002 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | +0.054 | -0.058 | -0.001 | -0.002 | +0.005 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | +0.049 | -0.056 | +0.001 | -0.002 | +0.005 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | +0.196 ✓✓ | +0.016 ✓✓ | +0.001 | +0.008 | +0.006 |
| Power Transformation | +0.169 ✓✓ | +0.004 ✓✓ | -0.002 | +0.008 ✓ | +0.004 |
| Delta Change | +0.056 | -0.031 | -0.002 | +0.011 | +0.001 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | +0.039 | -0.025 | +0.000 | -0.000 | +0.002 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | +0.182 ✓✓ | -0.002 ✓ | -0.011 | -0.004 | -0.005 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | +0.136 ✓ | -0.009 ✓ | +0.000 | +0.007 | +0.006 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | +0.042 | -0.051 | -0.025 | -0.010 | -0.023 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | +0.082 | -0.044 | -0.034 | -0.012 | -0.034 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | -0.074 | -0.102 | -0.038 | -0.024 | -0.045 |
| CDF-transform | +0.011 | -0.064 | -0.029 | -0.015 | -0.030 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | +0.054 | -0.058 | -0.001 | -0.002 | +0.005 |
More scores by target: test years, fair CRPS, bias, correlation, spread, reliability, coverage
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | -0.502 | -0.310 | -0.303 | -0.348 | -0.666 |
| Linear Scaling | -0.215 | +0.046 | -0.007 | +0.014 | +0.086 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | -0.002 | +0.065 | +0.004 | +0.025 | +0.071 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | -0.000 | +0.068 | +0.004 | +0.023 | +0.070 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | +0.011 | +0.084 | +0.009 | +0.022 | +0.073 |
| Power Transformation | -0.039 | +0.080 | +0.011 | +0.032 | +0.074 |
| Delta Change | -0.145 | +0.093 | -0.004 | +0.033 | +0.075 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | -0.177 | +0.049 | -0.006 | +0.014 | +0.086 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | +0.006 | +0.072 | +0.000 | +0.019 | +0.059 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | +0.000 | +0.082 | +0.010 | +0.020 | +0.073 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | -0.163 | +0.088 | -0.004 | +0.024 | +0.072 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | -0.079 | +0.089 | -0.006 | +0.025 | +0.075 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | -0.257 | +0.036 | -0.018 | +0.021 | +0.063 |
| CDF-transform | -0.261 | +0.087 | -0.006 | +0.017 | +0.072 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | -0.002 | +0.065 | +0.004 | +0.025 | +0.071 |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | -0.212 | -0.316 | -0.255 | -0.261 | -0.624 |
| Linear Scaling | -0.034 | -0.087 | -0.012 | -0.016 | -0.025 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | +0.232 | -0.044 | -0.007 | -0.011 | -0.014 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | +0.238 | -0.042 | -0.007 | -0.012 | -0.014 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | +0.261 ✓ | -0.023 ✓ | -0.004 | -0.007 | -0.013 |
| Power Transformation | +0.196 | -0.026 | -0.007 | -0.006 | -0.015 |
| Delta Change | +0.095 | -0.057 | +0.001 | +0.004 | -0.010 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | +0.036 | -0.079 | -0.011 | -0.016 | -0.024 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | +0.240 | -0.037 | -0.019 | -0.017 | -0.026 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | +0.237 | -0.026 | -0.005 | -0.007 | -0.013 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | -0.035 | -0.099 | -0.031 | -0.023 | -0.044 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | +0.153 | -0.124 | -0.042 | -0.024 | -0.058 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | -0.096 | -0.122 | -0.048 | -0.034 | -0.074 |
| CDF-transform | -0.404 | -0.123 | -0.037 | -0.028 | -0.050 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | +0.232 | -0.044 | -0.007 | -0.011 | -0.014 |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | -0.649 | -0.303 | -0.293 | -0.356 | -0.636 |
| Linear Scaling | -0.360 | +0.001 | +0.000 | -0.000 | +0.094 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | -0.071 | +0.005 | +0.007 | +0.023 | +0.096 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | -0.034 | +0.010 | +0.007 | +0.022 | +0.095 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | +0.007 | +0.062 | +0.016 | +0.017 | +0.101 |
| Power Transformation | -0.013 | +0.053 | +0.022 | +0.036 | +0.104 |
| Delta Change | -0.308 | +0.046 | -0.010 | +0.026 | +0.086 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | -0.364 | +0.007 | +0.000 | -0.000 | +0.094 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | -0.018 | +0.042 | +0.005 | +0.025 | +0.081 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | +0.012 | +0.063 | +0.019 | +0.024 | +0.103 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | -0.327 | +0.037 | -0.009 | +0.027 | +0.100 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | -0.161 | +0.045 | -0.007 | +0.027 | +0.114 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | -0.480 | -0.024 | -0.021 | +0.013 | +0.111 |
| CDF-transform | -0.323 | +0.026 | -0.005 | +0.013 | +0.100 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | -0.071 | +0.005 | +0.007 | +0.023 | +0.096 |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | -6.3 | -22.7 | -24.3 | -21.8 | -75.0 |
| Linear Scaling | +0.6 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | +0.1 | +0.2 | -0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | +0.1 | +0.2 | -0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | +0.1 | +0.1 | -0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Power Transformation | -0.0 | +0.1 | -0.0 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| Delta Change | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | -0.1 | -0.0 | +0.1 | +0.0 | +0.2 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | -0.0 | +0.1 | -0.0 | +0.0 | +0.1 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | -0.1 | +0.1 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.1 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | +0.8 | +1.1 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +0.2 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | +0.2 | +2.7 | +1.3 | +0.9 | +2.0 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | -0.8 | -5.5 | -4.6 | -4.4 | -4.6 |
| CDF-transform | +3.4 | +2.3 | +0.8 | +0.8 | +0.6 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | +0.1 | +0.2 | -0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | +0.44 | +0.10 | +0.16 | +0.15 | +0.22 |
| Linear Scaling | +0.40 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.12 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | +0.38 | -0.02 | +0.01 | -0.00 | +0.09 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | +0.36 | -0.02 | +0.01 | -0.00 | +0.09 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | +0.38 | -0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| Power Transformation | +0.38 | -0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| Delta Change | +0.41 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.12 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | +0.40 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.12 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | +0.36 | -0.01 | +0.01 | -0.01 | +0.09 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | +0.37 | -0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.09 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | +0.41 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.12 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | +0.41 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.13 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | +0.39 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.13 |
| CDF-transform | +0.39 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.12 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | +0.38 | -0.02 | +0.01 | -0.00 | +0.09 |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.50 |
| Linear Scaling | 1.34 | 1.31 | 1.12 | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.91 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 0.96 | 0.92 | 0.95 | 0.97 | 0.92 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 0.92 | 0.94 | 0.97 | 1.00 | 0.91 |
| Power Transformation | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.96 | 0.97 | 0.92 |
| Delta Change | 1.73 | 1.00 | 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.00 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.11 | 1.05 | 1.05 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 0.92 | 0.91 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.92 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 0.84 | 0.92 | 0.97 | 1.01 | 0.90 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 0.79 | 0.90 | 0.94 | 0.97 | 0.91 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 1.22 | 0.90 | 0.96 | 1.00 | 0.92 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 1.68 | 0.77 | 0.84 | 0.88 | 0.81 |
| CDF-transform | 0.45 | 0.91 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.91 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.91 |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 0.87 | 0.57 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.68 |
| Linear Scaling | 0.66 | 0.32 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 0.54 | 0.35 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 0.61 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 0.17 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| Power Transformation | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| Delta Change | 0.65 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 0.67 | 0.30 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 0.23 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 0.31 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 0.69 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 0.39 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 0.84 | 0.26 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| CDF-transform | 0.82 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 0.54 | 0.35 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| Target | Amount cells | Amount area | Probability cells | Probability area |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb | 1484 | 100% | 1263 | 85% |
| Mar | 1484 | 100% | 1463 | 99% |
| Apr | 1484 | 100% | 1484 | 100% |
| May | 1484 | 100% | 1484 | 100% |
| FMAM | 1484 | 100% | 1484 | 100% |
Dry months: shares of totals at exactly 0 mm and at ≤ 1 mm, CHIRPS and corrected
| Exactly 0 mm | ≤ 1 mm | |
|---|---|---|
| Feb: CHIRPS | 0.2% | 12.9% |
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 8.7% | 42.3% |
| Linear Scaling | 8.7% | 36.3% |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 4.6% | 14.5% |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 1.9% | 13.3% |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 0.8% | 13.4% |
| Power Transformation | 8.7% | 19.9% |
| Delta Change | 0.2% | 19.4% |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 17.7% | 17.7% |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 12.9% | 12.9% |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 11.1% | 15.0% |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 12.7% | 20.4% |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 13.0% | 16.2% |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 34.2% | 43.6% |
| CDF-transform | 0.1% | 21.2% |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 4.6% | 14.5% |
| Mar: CHIRPS | 0.7% | 5.1% |
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 1.5% | 18.2% |
| Linear Scaling | 1.5% | 14.2% |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 2.0% | 3.9% |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 1.0% | 3.7% |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 0.5% | 5.4% |
| Power Transformation | 1.5% | 7.8% |
| Delta Change | 0.7% | 6.4% |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 5.2% | 7.5% |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 4.8% | 6.5% |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 5.1% | 5.8% |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 19.8% | 20.3% |
| CDF-transform | 0.3% | 6.4% |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 2.0% | 3.9% |
| Apr: CHIRPS | 0.2% | 1.3% |
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 0.2% | 2.8% |
| Linear Scaling | 0.2% | 2.0% |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| Power Transformation | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| Delta Change | 0.2% | 1.4% |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 1.3% | 1.4% |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 1.3% | 1.4% |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| CDF-transform | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| May: CHIRPS | 0.5% | 1.3% |
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 0.1% | 2.2% |
| Linear Scaling | 0.1% | 1.5% |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| Power Transformation | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Delta Change | 0.5% | 1.3% |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 1.2% | 1.4% |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| CDF-transform | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| FMAM: CHIRPS | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Linear Scaling | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Power Transformation | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Delta Change | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| CDF-transform | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Distribution of the corrected members (mean, spread, 10th and 90th percentiles)
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.72 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| Linear Scaling | 1.02 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Power Transformation | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Delta Change | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 1.02 | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 1.00 | 1.04 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.00 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 0.78 | 0.85 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.98 |
| CDF-transform | 1.14 | 1.04 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.00 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 1.07 | 0.75 | 0.86 | 0.83 | 0.75 |
| Linear Scaling | 1.85 | 1.44 | 1.20 | 1.18 | 1.11 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 1.04 | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 1.04 | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.01 | 1.04 | 0.99 |
| Power Transformation | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Delta Change | 1.84 | 1.18 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 1.08 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 1.64 | 1.39 | 1.20 | 1.18 | 1.11 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.01 | 1.03 | 0.98 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 1.54 | 1.12 | 1.03 | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 1.38 | 1.14 | 1.05 | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 1.45 | 0.94 | 0.92 | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| CDF-transform | 1.72 | 1.16 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.04 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 1.04 | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.52 | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| Linear Scaling | 0.06 | 0.23 | 0.72 | 0.89 | 0.87 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 1.07 | 1.36 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 0.96 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 1.13 | 1.35 | 1.03 | 1.05 | 0.96 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 0.82 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.96 |
| Power Transformation | 0.38 | 0.70 | 0.92 | 0.99 | 0.93 |
| Delta Change | 0.32 | 0.80 | 0.91 | 0.92 | 0.94 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 0.20 | 0.33 | 0.71 | 0.86 | 0.87 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.94 | 0.95 | 0.98 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 0.69 | 0.89 | 0.95 | 0.97 | 0.96 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 0.31 | 0.81 | 0.91 | 0.94 | 0.95 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 0.51 | 0.82 | 0.91 | 0.94 | 0.96 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.90 | 0.94 | 0.97 |
| CDF-transform | 0.26 | 0.77 | 0.92 | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 1.07 | 1.36 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 0.96 |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 0.80 | 0.65 | 0.79 | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| Linear Scaling | 1.43 | 1.23 | 1.10 | 1.09 | 1.04 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 1.03 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.00 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 0.99 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 1.09 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.00 |
| Power Transformation | 1.12 | 1.03 | 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.00 |
| Delta Change | 1.20 | 1.08 | 1.05 | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 1.25 | 1.20 | 1.10 | 1.09 | 1.04 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.03 | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 1.00 | 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.00 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 1.30 | 1.08 | 1.04 | 1.03 | 1.02 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.04 | 1.03 | 1.02 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.97 |
| CDF-transform | 1.58 | 1.11 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.03 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 1.03 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.00 |
FMAM rainfall contribution domain
| Method | Amount CRPSS 1993–2016 | Amount CRPSS 2017–2025 | Tercile RPSS (no blend) 1993–2016 | Tercile RPSS (no blend) 2017–2025 | Mean bias (mm) | MAE (mm) | Correlation | Spread–error | Reliability index | Members ≤ 1 mm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | -0.702 | -0.767 | -0.473 | -0.798 | -92.3 | 110.6 | 0.21 | 0.46 | 0.83 | 0.0% |
| Linear Scaling | -0.034 | +0.087 | -0.008 | +0.096 | +0.2 | 74.4 | 0.11 | 1.05 | 0.08 | 0.0% |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | -0.017 | +0.071 | -0.005 | +0.099 | +0.1 | 73.1 | 0.09 | 0.90 | 0.10 | 0.0% |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | -0.017 | +0.071 | -0.005 | +0.099 | +0.1 | 73.1 | 0.09 | 0.91 | 0.10 | 0.0% |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | -0.015 | +0.074 | -0.005 | +0.106 | +0.1 | 73.0 | 0.09 | 0.89 | 0.11 | 0.0% |
| Power Transformation | -0.019 | +0.076 | -0.007 | +0.110 | +0.1 | 73.1 | 0.09 | 0.91 | 0.10 | 0.0% |
| Delta Change | -0.020 | +0.074 | -0.011 | +0.082 | +0.2 | 74.4 | 0.11 | 0.99 | 0.05 | 0.0% |
| Local Intensity Scaling | -0.034 | +0.087 | -0.008 | +0.096 | +0.2 | 74.4 | 0.11 | 1.05 | 0.08 | 0.0% |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | -0.027 | +0.060 | -0.013 | +0.085 | +0.1 | 73.0 | 0.09 | 0.90 | 0.12 | 0.0% |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | -0.015 | +0.074 | -0.004 | +0.109 | +0.1 | 72.9 | 0.09 | 0.88 | 0.12 | 0.0% |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | -0.048 | +0.073 | -0.037 | +0.101 | +0.1 | 74.6 | 0.11 | 0.89 | 0.13 | 0.0% |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | -0.063 | +0.076 | -0.049 | +0.117 | +2.2 | 75.0 | 0.12 | 0.90 | 0.18 | 0.0% |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | -0.076 | +0.061 | -0.063 | +0.110 | -4.3 | 74.4 | 0.12 | 0.79 | 0.28 | 0.5% |
| CDF-transform | -0.053 | +0.074 | -0.043 | +0.102 | +0.6 | 74.8 | 0.12 | 0.89 | 0.13 | 0.0% |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | -0.017 | +0.071 | -0.005 | +0.099 | +0.1 | 73.1 | 0.09 | 0.90 | 0.10 | 0.0% |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | -0.150 | -0.307 | -0.266 | -0.276 | -0.702 |
| Linear Scaling | -0.002 | -0.095 | -0.011 | -0.007 | -0.034 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | +0.260 | -0.036 | +0.001 | -0.001 | -0.017 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | +0.261 | -0.034 | +0.001 | -0.002 | -0.017 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | +0.284 | -0.019 | +0.002 | +0.002 | -0.015 |
| Power Transformation | +0.217 | -0.022 | -0.000 | +0.005 | -0.019 |
| Delta Change | +0.120 | -0.058 | -0.001 | +0.010 | -0.020 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | +0.062 | -0.087 | -0.010 | -0.007 | -0.034 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | +0.264 | -0.031 | -0.011 | -0.008 | -0.027 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | +0.259 | -0.021 | +0.002 | +0.003 | -0.015 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | +0.015 | -0.093 | -0.024 | -0.011 | -0.048 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | +0.182 | -0.119 | -0.035 | -0.012 | -0.063 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | -0.041 | -0.110 | -0.037 | -0.018 | -0.076 |
| CDF-transform | -0.343 | -0.117 | -0.029 | -0.015 | -0.053 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | +0.260 | -0.036 | +0.001 | -0.001 | -0.017 |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | -0.129 | -0.246 | -0.238 | -0.250 | -0.473 |
| Linear Scaling | +0.064 | -0.023 | +0.003 | +0.003 | -0.008 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | +0.067 | -0.050 | +0.004 | -0.002 | -0.005 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | +0.060 | -0.046 | +0.006 | -0.002 | -0.005 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | +0.227 | +0.024 | +0.004 | +0.009 | -0.005 |
| Power Transformation | +0.196 | +0.010 | +0.001 | +0.010 | -0.007 |
| Delta Change | +0.086 | -0.031 | -0.004 | +0.018 | -0.011 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | +0.053 | -0.022 | +0.003 | +0.002 | -0.008 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | +0.208 | +0.004 | -0.008 | -0.002 | -0.013 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | +0.156 | -0.007 | +0.003 | +0.009 | -0.004 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | +0.077 | -0.050 | -0.025 | -0.006 | -0.037 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | +0.106 | -0.043 | -0.034 | -0.006 | -0.049 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | -0.044 | -0.098 | -0.038 | -0.020 | -0.063 |
| CDF-transform | +0.054 | -0.064 | -0.028 | -0.009 | -0.043 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | +0.067 | -0.050 | +0.004 | -0.002 | -0.005 |
More scores by target: test years, fair CRPS, bias, correlation, spread, reliability, coverage
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | -0.559 | -0.323 | -0.329 | -0.442 | -0.767 |
| Linear Scaling | -0.243 | +0.058 | -0.003 | -0.005 | +0.087 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | -0.019 | +0.073 | +0.005 | +0.007 | +0.071 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | -0.017 | +0.076 | +0.005 | +0.005 | +0.071 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | -0.009 | +0.093 | +0.010 | +0.007 | +0.074 |
| Power Transformation | -0.063 | +0.090 | +0.012 | +0.015 | +0.076 |
| Delta Change | -0.172 | +0.103 | -0.005 | +0.015 | +0.074 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | -0.206 | +0.060 | -0.003 | -0.005 | +0.087 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | -0.008 | +0.081 | +0.003 | +0.004 | +0.060 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | -0.017 | +0.091 | +0.011 | +0.007 | +0.074 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | -0.195 | +0.099 | -0.002 | +0.006 | +0.073 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | -0.108 | +0.102 | -0.004 | +0.008 | +0.076 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | -0.278 | +0.043 | -0.018 | -0.000 | +0.061 |
| CDF-transform | -0.305 | +0.100 | -0.004 | -0.001 | +0.074 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | -0.019 | +0.073 | +0.005 | +0.007 | +0.071 |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | -0.179 | -0.337 | -0.291 | -0.303 | -0.748 |
| Linear Scaling | -0.004 | -0.091 | -0.011 | -0.011 | -0.037 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | +0.252 | -0.046 | -0.005 | -0.008 | -0.025 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | +0.253 | -0.044 | -0.005 | -0.008 | -0.025 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | +0.278 | -0.026 | -0.003 | -0.002 | -0.024 |
| Power Transformation | +0.211 | -0.029 | -0.006 | -0.001 | -0.026 |
| Delta Change | +0.125 | -0.060 | -0.001 | +0.011 | -0.021 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | +0.058 | -0.084 | -0.011 | -0.011 | -0.036 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | +0.256 | -0.039 | -0.018 | -0.014 | -0.036 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | +0.252 | -0.029 | -0.004 | -0.002 | -0.024 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | -0.003 | -0.104 | -0.031 | -0.017 | -0.058 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | +0.177 | -0.130 | -0.042 | -0.017 | -0.073 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | -0.060 | -0.127 | -0.048 | -0.029 | -0.091 |
| CDF-transform | -0.379 | -0.128 | -0.036 | -0.022 | -0.063 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | +0.252 | -0.046 | -0.005 | -0.008 | -0.025 |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | -0.757 | -0.345 | -0.356 | -0.445 | -0.798 |
| Linear Scaling | -0.410 | +0.023 | +0.010 | -0.023 | +0.096 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | -0.104 | +0.049 | +0.016 | +0.001 | +0.099 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | -0.088 | +0.059 | +0.016 | +0.000 | +0.099 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | -0.046 | +0.104 | +0.025 | -0.002 | +0.106 |
| Power Transformation | -0.083 | +0.096 | +0.030 | +0.017 | +0.110 |
| Delta Change | -0.366 | +0.076 | -0.011 | +0.004 | +0.082 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | -0.428 | +0.030 | +0.010 | -0.023 | +0.096 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | -0.065 | +0.078 | +0.014 | +0.005 | +0.085 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | -0.057 | +0.104 | +0.027 | +0.005 | +0.109 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | -0.404 | +0.078 | -0.002 | +0.002 | +0.101 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | -0.203 | +0.089 | +0.000 | +0.002 | +0.117 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | -0.533 | -0.003 | -0.016 | -0.015 | +0.110 |
| CDF-transform | -0.405 | +0.076 | +0.004 | -0.010 | +0.102 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | -0.104 | +0.049 | +0.016 | +0.001 | +0.099 |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | -8.5 | -27.9 | -31.2 | -24.8 | -92.3 |
| Linear Scaling | +0.7 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.0 | +0.2 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | +0.1 | +0.2 | -0.0 | +0.0 | +0.1 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | +0.1 | +0.2 | -0.0 | +0.0 | +0.1 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | +0.1 | +0.2 | -0.0 | +0.0 | +0.1 |
| Power Transformation | -0.0 | +0.1 | -0.0 | +0.0 | +0.1 |
| Delta Change | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.0 | +0.2 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | -0.1 | -0.0 | +0.1 | +0.0 | +0.2 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | -0.0 | +0.2 | -0.0 | +0.0 | +0.1 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | -0.1 | +0.1 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.1 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | +1.0 | +1.3 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | +0.1 | +3.1 | +1.4 | +0.8 | +2.2 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | -1.0 | -6.1 | -5.1 | -4.4 | -4.3 |
| CDF-transform | +4.2 | +2.7 | +0.9 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | +0.1 | +0.2 | -0.0 | +0.0 | +0.1 |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | +0.49 | +0.10 | +0.16 | +0.17 | +0.21 |
| Linear Scaling | +0.45 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.11 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | +0.42 | -0.02 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.09 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | +0.42 | -0.02 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.09 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | +0.43 | -0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.09 |
| Power Transformation | +0.45 | -0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.09 |
| Delta Change | +0.46 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.11 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | +0.45 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.11 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | +0.42 | -0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.09 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | +0.42 | -0.01 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.09 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | +0.46 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.11 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | +0.45 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.12 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | +0.44 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.12 |
| CDF-transform | +0.44 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.12 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | +0.42 | -0.02 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.09 |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.46 |
| Linear Scaling | 1.35 | 1.30 | 1.11 | 1.03 | 1.05 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.90 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.95 | 0.97 | 0.91 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 0.89 |
| Power Transformation | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.95 | 0.97 | 0.91 |
| Delta Change | 1.75 | 1.00 | 1.01 | 1.02 | 0.99 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 1.31 | 1.28 | 1.11 | 1.03 | 1.05 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 0.92 | 0.91 | 0.95 | 0.97 | 0.90 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 0.84 | 0.92 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 0.88 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 0.79 | 0.89 | 0.94 | 0.98 | 0.89 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 1.24 | 0.89 | 0.96 | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 1.67 | 0.76 | 0.84 | 0.88 | 0.79 |
| CDF-transform | 0.44 | 0.90 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.89 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.90 |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 0.97 | 0.63 | 0.51 | 0.48 | 0.83 |
| Linear Scaling | 0.66 | 0.35 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 0.56 | 0.34 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 0.59 | 0.32 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Power Transformation | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| Delta Change | 0.67 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 0.68 | 0.32 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 0.19 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 0.29 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 0.67 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 0.38 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 0.85 | 0.25 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| CDF-transform | 0.80 | 0.21 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 0.56 | 0.34 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| Target | Amount cells | Amount area | Probability cells | Probability area |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb | 1120 | 100% | 1018 | 91% |
| Mar | 1120 | 100% | 1117 | 100% |
| Apr | 1120 | 100% | 1120 | 100% |
| May | 1120 | 100% | 1120 | 100% |
| FMAM | 1120 | 100% | 1120 | 100% |
Dry months: shares of totals at exactly 0 mm and at ≤ 1 mm, CHIRPS and corrected
| Exactly 0 mm | ≤ 1 mm | |
|---|---|---|
| Feb: CHIRPS | 0.2% | 11.6% |
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 9.1% | 41.5% |
| Linear Scaling | 9.1% | 34.6% |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 3.8% | 12.4% |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 1.7% | 11.8% |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 0.5% | 11.6% |
| Power Transformation | 9.1% | 19.1% |
| Delta Change | 0.2% | 17.5% |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 17.4% | 17.4% |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 11.6% | 11.6% |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 10.0% | 13.6% |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 11.4% | 18.6% |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 11.7% | 14.8% |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 34.3% | 42.6% |
| CDF-transform | 0.1% | 19.9% |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 3.8% | 12.4% |
| Mar: CHIRPS | 0.1% | 2.5% |
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 1.1% | 16.3% |
| Linear Scaling | 1.1% | 11.6% |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 1.1% | 2.0% |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 1.1% | 2.0% |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 0.2% | 3.1% |
| Power Transformation | 1.1% | 6.0% |
| Delta Change | 0.1% | 3.7% |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 2.5% | 4.8% |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 2.2% | 3.7% |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 17.5% | 17.9% |
| CDF-transform | 0.1% | 3.9% |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 1.1% | 2.0% |
| Apr: CHIRPS | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 0.1% | 1.9% |
| Linear Scaling | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Power Transformation | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Delta Change | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| CDF-transform | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| May: CHIRPS | 0.4% | 1.2% |
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 0.1% | 2.2% |
| Linear Scaling | 0.1% | 1.4% |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Power Transformation | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Delta Change | 0.4% | 1.2% |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| CDF-transform | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| FMAM: CHIRPS | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Linear Scaling | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Power Transformation | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Delta Change | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| CDF-transform | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Distribution of the corrected members (mean, spread, 10th and 90th percentiles)
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 0.51 | 0.50 | 0.68 | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| Linear Scaling | 1.02 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Power Transformation | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Delta Change | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 1.02 | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 0.98 | 1.04 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.00 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 0.79 | 0.88 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.98 |
| CDF-transform | 1.15 | 1.03 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.00 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 0.91 | 0.70 | 0.77 | 0.78 | 0.70 |
| Linear Scaling | 1.80 | 1.41 | 1.17 | 1.14 | 1.09 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 1.03 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 1.03 | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.01 | 1.03 | 0.99 |
| Power Transformation | 1.02 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Delta Change | 1.84 | 1.19 | 1.06 | 1.05 | 1.08 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 1.64 | 1.37 | 1.17 | 1.13 | 1.09 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 0.93 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.03 | 0.98 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 1.54 | 1.11 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 1.36 | 1.14 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.03 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 1.40 | 0.94 | 0.92 | 0.93 | 0.94 |
| CDF-transform | 1.69 | 1.15 | 1.05 | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 1.03 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.53 | 0.63 | 0.55 |
| Linear Scaling | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.75 | 0.91 | 0.89 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 1.11 | 1.36 | 1.01 | 1.02 | 0.96 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 1.15 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.02 | 0.96 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 0.85 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.98 | 0.96 |
| Power Transformation | 0.36 | 0.70 | 0.93 | 0.99 | 0.94 |
| Delta Change | 0.30 | 0.80 | 0.91 | 0.93 | 0.94 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 0.17 | 0.32 | 0.76 | 0.89 | 0.89 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.94 | 0.95 | 0.98 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 0.67 | 0.91 | 0.96 | 0.97 | 0.96 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 0.29 | 0.82 | 0.92 | 0.95 | 0.96 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 0.50 | 0.82 | 0.93 | 0.95 | 0.96 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.93 | 0.95 | 0.97 |
| CDF-transform | 0.23 | 0.76 | 0.92 | 0.96 | 0.95 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 1.11 | 1.36 | 1.01 | 1.02 | 0.96 |
| Method | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | FMAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw ECMWF (no correction) | 0.70 | 0.60 | 0.73 | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| Linear Scaling | 1.41 | 1.24 | 1.09 | 1.07 | 1.04 |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | 1.02 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | 0.99 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | 1.08 | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.00 |
| Power Transformation | 1.14 | 1.03 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| Delta Change | 1.19 | 1.08 | 1.05 | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | 1.26 | 1.21 | 1.09 | 1.07 | 1.03 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | 1.06 | 1.05 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.00 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | 1.33 | 1.08 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.02 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.02 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | 0.96 | 0.93 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.98 |
| CDF-transform | 1.61 | 1.11 | 1.04 | 1.03 | 1.02 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | 1.02 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 |
Screening statistics
Every method, target and score (within-method and family-wide Holm)
Screening rule (docs/36 rule applied as a screen): a method passes for a target and score if, on the leave-one-year-out 1993-2016 per-year scores, its mean improvement over mvs has a one-sided sign-flip p-value below 0.05 after Holm adjustment, and its mean score over 2017-2025 (fits on 1993-2016) is not worse. 'screen_pass': Holm across the 5 targets of one method. 'screen_pass_family': Holm across every method and target of the benchmark for that score. A screening pass is not an operational adoption decision (see the confirmation run).
| Method | Target | Δ CRPS 1993–2016 (mm) | 95% interval | Years better | p (one-sided) | Holm p (method) | Holm p (all 60) | Δ 2017–2025 | Screening |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linear Scaling | Feb | +1.87 | +1.47 to +2.31 | 0/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +1.54 | — |
| Linear Scaling | Mar | +1.14 | +0.13 to +2.05 | 5/24 | 0.9840 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.44 | — |
| Linear Scaling | Apr | +0.31 | -0.16 to +0.75 | 9/24 | 0.8957 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.34 | — |
| Linear Scaling | May | +0.23 | -0.20 to +0.62 | 7/24 | 0.8608 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.28 | — |
| Linear Scaling | FMAM | +0.83 | -0.21 to +1.79 | 6/24 | 0.9342 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.87 | — |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | Feb | -0.04 | -0.07 to -0.01 | 20/24 | 0.0098 | 0.0491 | 0.5797 | -0.01 | ✓ |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | Mar | -0.03 | -0.06 to +0.01 | 15/24 | 0.0625 | 0.2500 | 1.0000 | -0.06 | — |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | Apr | -0.00 | -0.04 to +0.02 | 10/24 | 0.3800 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.01 | — |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | May | +0.01 | -0.01 to +0.03 | 10/24 | 0.8918 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.03 | — |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | FMAM | +0.03 | -0.01 to +0.06 | 7/24 | 0.9352 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.03 | — |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | Feb | -0.18 | -0.29 to -0.07 | 20/24 | 0.0026 | 0.0132 | 0.1578 | -0.10 | ✓ |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | Mar | -0.34 | -0.63 to -0.08 | 16/24 | 0.0112 | 0.0448 | 0.6493 | -0.46 | ✓ |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | Apr | -0.05 | -0.16 to +0.06 | 15/24 | 0.1964 | 0.4568 | 1.0000 | -0.15 | — |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | May | -0.08 | -0.26 to +0.09 | 10/24 | 0.1950 | 0.4568 | 1.0000 | +0.07 | — |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | FMAM | -0.06 | -0.18 to +0.05 | 14/24 | 0.1523 | 0.4568 | 1.0000 | -0.14 | — |
| Power Transformation | Feb | +0.26 | +0.07 to +0.46 | 5/24 | 0.9912 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.27 | — |
| Power Transformation | Mar | -0.28 | -0.70 to +0.14 | 14/24 | 0.1058 | 0.4230 | 1.0000 | -0.36 | — |
| Power Transformation | Apr | +0.03 | -0.12 to +0.18 | 13/24 | 0.6338 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.21 | — |
| Power Transformation | May | -0.14 | -0.27 to -0.01 | 15/24 | 0.0251 | 0.1253 | 1.0000 | -0.19 | — |
| Power Transformation | FMAM | +0.08 | -0.09 to +0.26 | 7/24 | 0.8180 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.21 | — |
| Delta Change | Feb | +1.02 | +0.71 to +1.34 | 3/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +1.03 | — |
| Delta Change | Mar | +0.44 | -0.35 to +1.18 | 8/24 | 0.8573 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.67 | — |
| Delta Change | Apr | -0.03 | -0.56 to +0.51 | 11/24 | 0.4567 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.24 | — |
| Delta Change | May | -0.25 | -0.62 to +0.11 | 13/24 | 0.0996 | 0.4978 | 1.0000 | -0.21 | — |
| Delta Change | FMAM | +0.17 | -0.95 to +1.21 | 9/24 | 0.6096 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.22 | — |
| Local Intensity Scaling | Feb | +1.38 | +1.10 to +1.64 | 1/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +1.26 | — |
| Local Intensity Scaling | Mar | +0.97 | -0.01 to +1.84 | 5/24 | 0.9718 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.36 | — |
| Local Intensity Scaling | Apr | +0.29 | -0.18 to +0.71 | 9/24 | 0.8826 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.31 | — |
| Local Intensity Scaling | May | +0.22 | -0.20 to +0.60 | 8/24 | 0.8524 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.27 | — |
| Local Intensity Scaling | FMAM | +0.79 | -0.23 to +1.74 | 6/24 | 0.9285 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.87 | — |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | Feb | -0.06 | -0.25 to +0.15 | 15/24 | 0.2912 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.06 | — |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | Mar | -0.11 | -0.46 to +0.23 | 14/24 | 0.2748 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.16 | — |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | Apr | +0.33 | +0.16 to +0.52 | 5/24 | 0.9995 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.11 | — |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | May | +0.18 | -0.11 to +0.45 | 9/24 | 0.8920 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.13 | — |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | FMAM | +0.55 | +0.31 to +0.81 | 5/24 | 0.9998 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.69 | — |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | Feb | -0.03 | -0.18 to +0.12 | 13/24 | 0.3439 | 0.9859 | 1.0000 | -0.02 | — |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | Mar | -0.31 | -0.60 to -0.05 | 15/24 | 0.0190 | 0.0948 | 1.0000 | -0.40 | — |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | Apr | -0.04 | -0.15 to +0.08 | 14/24 | 0.2778 | 0.9859 | 1.0000 | -0.19 | — |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | May | -0.06 | -0.26 to +0.12 | 10/24 | 0.2703 | 0.9859 | 1.0000 | +0.12 | — |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | FMAM | -0.07 | -0.25 to +0.12 | 13/24 | 0.2465 | 0.9859 | 1.0000 | -0.14 | — |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | Feb | +1.76 | +1.13 to +2.49 | 2/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +1.16 | — |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | Mar | +1.10 | -0.08 to +2.33 | 8/24 | 0.9548 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.53 | — |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | Apr | +0.68 | +0.03 to +1.52 | 8/24 | 0.9562 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.25 | — |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | May | +0.35 | -0.05 to +0.75 | 7/24 | 0.9542 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.01 | — |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | FMAM | +1.44 | +0.41 to +2.54 | 7/24 | 0.9904 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.04 | — |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | Feb | +0.56 | +0.19 to +0.98 | 6/24 | 0.9962 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.56 | — |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | Mar | +1.59 | +0.11 to +3.29 | 6/24 | 0.9660 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.55 | — |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | Apr | +1.00 | +0.15 to +2.11 | 8/24 | 0.9778 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.29 | — |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | May | +0.41 | -0.05 to +0.88 | 8/24 | 0.9535 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.01 | — |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | FMAM | +2.09 | +0.90 to +3.45 | 5/24 | 0.9989 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.22 | — |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | Feb | +2.18 | +1.63 to +2.80 | 0/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +1.84 | — |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | Mar | +1.43 | +0.10 to +2.84 | 6/24 | 0.9729 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.68 | — |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | Apr | +1.04 | +0.45 to +1.65 | 6/24 | 0.9987 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.67 | — |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | May | +0.55 | +0.03 to +1.09 | 7/24 | 0.9698 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.09 | — |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | FMAM | +2.64 | +1.21 to +4.21 | 5/24 | 0.9991 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.46 | — |
| CDF-transform | Feb | +4.17 | +1.84 to +7.59 | 2/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +1.87 | — |
| CDF-transform | Mar | +1.57 | +0.21 to +3.07 | 7/24 | 0.9794 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.51 | — |
| CDF-transform | Apr | +0.84 | +0.07 to +1.83 | 8/24 | 0.9631 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.31 | — |
| CDF-transform | May | +0.49 | +0.09 to +0.88 | 7/24 | 0.9890 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.18 | — |
| CDF-transform | FMAM | +1.72 | +0.56 to +2.99 | 7/24 | 0.9945 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.09 | — |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | Feb | +0.00 | +0.00 to +0.00 | 0/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | — (variant) | +0.00 | — |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | Mar | +0.00 | +0.00 to +0.00 | 0/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | — (variant) | +0.00 | — |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | Apr | +0.00 | +0.00 to +0.00 | 0/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | — (variant) | +0.00 | — |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | May | +0.00 | +0.00 to +0.00 | 0/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | — (variant) | +0.00 | — |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | FMAM | +0.00 | +0.00 to +0.00 | 0/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | — (variant) | +0.00 | — |
| Method | Target | Δ fair CRPS 1993–2016 (mm) | 95% interval | Years better | p (one-sided) | Holm p (method) | Holm p (all 60) | Δ 2017–2025 | Screening |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linear Scaling | Feb | +1.75 | +1.36 to +2.16 | 1/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +1.49 | — |
| Linear Scaling | Mar | +0.82 | -0.19 to +1.71 | 6/24 | 0.9432 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.28 | — |
| Linear Scaling | Apr | +0.12 | -0.36 to +0.56 | 9/24 | 0.6778 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.23 | — |
| Linear Scaling | May | +0.12 | -0.31 to +0.51 | 9/24 | 0.7129 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.22 | — |
| Linear Scaling | FMAM | +0.51 | -0.53 to +1.49 | 7/24 | 0.8272 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -1.02 | — |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | Feb | -0.04 | -0.07 to -0.00 | 20/24 | 0.0138 | 0.0690 | 0.7731 | -0.01 | — |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | Mar | -0.03 | -0.07 to -0.00 | 17/24 | 0.0278 | 0.1114 | 1.0000 | -0.07 | — |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | Apr | -0.01 | -0.04 to +0.02 | 11/24 | 0.2115 | 0.6344 | 1.0000 | -0.01 | — |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | May | +0.01 | -0.01 to +0.02 | 11/24 | 0.6999 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.03 | — |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | FMAM | +0.02 | -0.01 to +0.05 | 9/24 | 0.8296 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.02 | — |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | Feb | -0.19 | -0.30 to -0.07 | 19/24 | 0.0021 | 0.0106 | 0.1266 | -0.10 | ✓ |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | Mar | -0.40 | -0.69 to -0.13 | 17/24 | 0.0044 | 0.0175 | 0.2587 | -0.48 | ✓ |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | Apr | -0.09 | -0.19 to +0.02 | 16/24 | 0.0696 | 0.2088 | 1.0000 | -0.17 | — |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | May | -0.13 | -0.31 to +0.03 | 13/24 | 0.0739 | 0.2088 | 1.0000 | +0.04 | — |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | FMAM | -0.06 | -0.17 to +0.06 | 13/24 | 0.1819 | 0.2088 | 1.0000 | -0.14 | — |
| Power Transformation | Feb | +0.24 | +0.05 to +0.45 | 6/24 | 0.9848 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.25 | — |
| Power Transformation | Mar | -0.34 | -0.77 to +0.09 | 14/24 | 0.0714 | 0.2855 | 1.0000 | -0.39 | — |
| Power Transformation | Apr | +0.00 | -0.14 to +0.16 | 15/24 | 0.5076 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.22 | — |
| Power Transformation | May | -0.16 | -0.30 to -0.03 | 15/24 | 0.0132 | 0.0659 | 0.7513 | -0.20 | — |
| Power Transformation | FMAM | +0.06 | -0.12 to +0.24 | 8/24 | 0.7506 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.22 | — |
| Delta Change | Feb | +0.90 | +0.60 to +1.19 | 3/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.88 | — |
| Delta Change | Mar | +0.26 | -0.52 to +1.01 | 10/24 | 0.7361 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -1.13 | — |
| Delta Change | Apr | -0.22 | -0.74 to +0.32 | 13/24 | 0.2229 | 0.8915 | 1.0000 | -0.40 | — |
| Delta Change | May | -0.44 | -0.81 to -0.07 | 15/24 | 0.0164 | 0.0819 | 0.9006 | -0.85 | — |
| Delta Change | FMAM | -0.18 | -1.31 to +0.87 | 11/24 | 0.3797 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -1.32 | — |
| Local Intensity Scaling | Feb | +1.29 | +1.02 to +1.55 | 1/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +1.22 | — |
| Local Intensity Scaling | Mar | +0.67 | -0.31 to +1.53 | 6/24 | 0.9114 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.22 | — |
| Local Intensity Scaling | Apr | +0.10 | -0.37 to +0.52 | 9/24 | 0.6536 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.22 | — |
| Local Intensity Scaling | May | +0.12 | -0.31 to +0.50 | 9/24 | 0.7091 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.22 | — |
| Local Intensity Scaling | FMAM | +0.48 | -0.54 to +1.44 | 7/24 | 0.8170 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -1.02 | — |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | Feb | -0.06 | -0.25 to +0.15 | 15/24 | 0.2996 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.06 | — |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | Mar | -0.14 | -0.50 to +0.20 | 14/24 | 0.2172 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.18 | — |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | Apr | +0.32 | +0.14 to +0.50 | 5/24 | 0.9991 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.10 | — |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | May | +0.16 | -0.13 to +0.44 | 10/24 | 0.8620 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.12 | — |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | FMAM | +0.57 | +0.33 to +0.83 | 6/24 | 0.9999 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.70 | — |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | Feb | -0.03 | -0.18 to +0.12 | 12/24 | 0.3339 | 0.6484 | 1.0000 | -0.02 | — |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | Mar | -0.36 | -0.65 to -0.09 | 16/24 | 0.0102 | 0.0511 | 0.5928 | -0.42 | — |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | Apr | -0.07 | -0.18 to +0.05 | 16/24 | 0.1378 | 0.4726 | 1.0000 | -0.20 | — |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | May | -0.12 | -0.32 to +0.06 | 11/24 | 0.1182 | 0.4726 | 1.0000 | +0.09 | — |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | FMAM | -0.05 | -0.23 to +0.14 | 13/24 | 0.3242 | 0.6484 | 1.0000 | -0.13 | — |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | Feb | +1.76 | +1.13 to +2.48 | 2/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +1.16 | — |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | Mar | +1.05 | -0.13 to +2.27 | 9/24 | 0.9478 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.55 | — |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | Apr | +0.66 | +0.01 to +1.49 | 8/24 | 0.9489 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.24 | — |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | May | +0.32 | -0.07 to +0.71 | 7/24 | 0.9393 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.00 | — |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | FMAM | +1.44 | +0.41 to +2.54 | 7/24 | 0.9905 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.03 | — |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | Feb | +0.52 | +0.15 to +0.93 | 6/24 | 0.9935 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.55 | — |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | Mar | +1.54 | +0.06 to +3.23 | 6/24 | 0.9607 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.57 | — |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | Apr | +0.97 | +0.12 to +2.07 | 8/24 | 0.9712 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.28 | — |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | May | +0.37 | -0.10 to +0.83 | 8/24 | 0.9297 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.02 | — |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | FMAM | +2.10 | +0.91 to +3.47 | 5/24 | 0.9989 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.20 | — |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | Feb | +2.16 | +1.63 to +2.75 | 0/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +1.86 | — |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | Mar | +1.50 | +0.16 to +2.91 | 6/24 | 0.9776 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.70 | — |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | Apr | +1.13 | +0.54 to +1.74 | 4/24 | 0.9994 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.71 | — |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | May | +0.63 | +0.10 to +1.17 | 6/24 | 0.9843 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.12 | — |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | FMAM | +2.86 | +1.43 to +4.45 | 5/24 | 0.9995 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.55 | — |
| CDF-transform | Feb | +4.19 | +1.84 to +7.61 | 2/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +1.87 | — |
| CDF-transform | Mar | +1.51 | +0.15 to +3.01 | 8/24 | 0.9753 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.53 | — |
| CDF-transform | Apr | +0.80 | +0.03 to +1.80 | 8/24 | 0.9550 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.30 | — |
| CDF-transform | May | +0.46 | +0.07 to +0.85 | 7/24 | 0.9855 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.17 | — |
| CDF-transform | FMAM | +1.72 | +0.55 to +2.99 | 7/24 | 0.9943 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.08 | — |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | Feb | +0.00 | +0.00 to +0.00 | 0/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | — (variant) | +0.00 | — |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | Mar | +0.00 | +0.00 to +0.00 | 0/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | — (variant) | +0.00 | — |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | Apr | +0.00 | +0.00 to +0.00 | 0/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | — (variant) | +0.00 | — |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | May | +0.00 | +0.00 to +0.00 | 0/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | — (variant) | +0.00 | — |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | FMAM | +0.00 | +0.00 to +0.00 | 0/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | — (variant) | +0.00 | — |
| Method | Target | Δ RPS (no blend) 1993–2016 | 95% interval | Years better | p (one-sided) | Holm p (method) | Holm p (all 60) | Δ 2017–2025 | Screening |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linear Scaling | Feb | +0.0048 | -0.0565 to +0.0655 | 11/24 | 0.5573 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.1243 | — |
| Linear Scaling | Mar | -0.0146 | -0.0495 to +0.0187 | 11/24 | 0.2105 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.0018 | — |
| Linear Scaling | Apr | -0.0005 | -0.0071 to +0.0054 | 11/24 | 0.4385 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.0030 | — |
| Linear Scaling | May | -0.0012 | -0.0120 to +0.0085 | 9/24 | 0.4108 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.0099 | — |
| Linear Scaling | FMAM | +0.0014 | -0.0034 to +0.0060 | 10/24 | 0.7151 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.0008 | — |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | Feb | +0.0024 | -0.0080 to +0.0129 | 10/24 | 0.6630 | 0.7444 | 1.0000 | -0.0161 | — |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | Mar | -0.0009 | -0.0027 to +0.0011 | 14/24 | 0.1848 | 0.7390 | 1.0000 | -0.0021 | — |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | Apr | -0.0008 | -0.0023 to +0.0004 | 11/24 | 0.1196 | 0.5979 | 1.0000 | -0.0001 | — |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | May | -0.0001 | -0.0005 to +0.0002 | 14/24 | 0.2148 | 0.7390 | 1.0000 | +0.0004 | — |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | FMAM | -0.0001 | -0.0005 to +0.0004 | 13/24 | 0.3722 | 0.7444 | 1.0000 | +0.0003 | — |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | Feb | -0.0644 | -0.0891 to -0.0401 | 21/24 | 0.0000 | 0.0001 | 0.0006 | -0.0334 | ✓✓ |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | Mar | -0.0337 | -0.0467 to -0.0211 | 21/24 | 0.0000 | 0.0001 | 0.0006 | -0.0258 | ✓✓ |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | Apr | -0.0009 | -0.0027 to +0.0011 | 14/24 | 0.1925 | 0.3849 | 1.0000 | -0.0041 | — |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | May | -0.0044 | -0.0094 to +0.0001 | 11/24 | 0.0448 | 0.1344 | 1.0000 | +0.0025 | — |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | FMAM | -0.0005 | -0.0028 to +0.0019 | 12/24 | 0.3587 | 0.3849 | 1.0000 | -0.0026 | — |
| Power Transformation | Feb | -0.0520 | -0.0810 to -0.0243 | 18/24 | 0.0006 | 0.0022 | 0.0311 | -0.0251 | ✓✓ |
| Power Transformation | Mar | -0.0280 | -0.0415 to -0.0142 | 18/24 | 0.0004 | 0.0020 | 0.0232 | -0.0216 | ✓✓ |
| Power Transformation | Apr | +0.0006 | -0.0047 to +0.0065 | 14/24 | 0.5814 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.0067 | — |
| Power Transformation | May | -0.0046 | -0.0086 to -0.0009 | 15/24 | 0.0136 | 0.0409 | 0.7093 | -0.0054 | ✓ |
| Power Transformation | FMAM | +0.0005 | -0.0034 to +0.0042 | 11/24 | 0.5959 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.0040 | — |
| Delta Change | Feb | -0.0006 | -0.0603 to +0.0597 | 11/24 | 0.4911 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.1017 | — |
| Delta Change | Mar | -0.0121 | -0.0442 to +0.0196 | 11/24 | 0.2368 | 0.9723 | 1.0000 | -0.0183 | — |
| Delta Change | Apr | +0.0003 | -0.0084 to +0.0086 | 9/24 | 0.5306 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.0078 | — |
| Delta Change | May | -0.0057 | -0.0181 to +0.0062 | 13/24 | 0.1945 | 0.9723 | 1.0000 | -0.0012 | — |
| Delta Change | FMAM | +0.0021 | -0.0088 to +0.0136 | 10/24 | 0.6343 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.0045 | — |
| Local Intensity Scaling | Feb | +0.0070 | -0.0553 to +0.0699 | 11/24 | 0.5829 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.1259 | — |
| Local Intensity Scaling | Mar | -0.0150 | -0.0513 to +0.0189 | 11/24 | 0.2116 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.0012 | — |
| Local Intensity Scaling | Apr | -0.0004 | -0.0069 to +0.0054 | 10/24 | 0.4494 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.0030 | — |
| Local Intensity Scaling | May | -0.0008 | -0.0117 to +0.0089 | 9/24 | 0.4391 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.0100 | — |
| Local Intensity Scaling | FMAM | +0.0014 | -0.0033 to +0.0058 | 10/24 | 0.7109 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.0008 | — |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | Feb | -0.0580 | -0.0861 to -0.0296 | 18/24 | 0.0004 | 0.0020 | 0.0232 | -0.0229 | ✓✓ |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | Mar | -0.0253 | -0.0442 to -0.0076 | 14/24 | 0.0073 | 0.0294 | 0.3890 | -0.0165 | ✓ |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | Apr | +0.0046 | -0.0003 to +0.0099 | 10/24 | 0.9522 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.0011 | — |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | May | +0.0009 | -0.0053 to +0.0071 | 11/24 | 0.6134 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.0009 | — |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | FMAM | +0.0045 | +0.0002 to +0.0090 | 7/24 | 0.9683 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.0066 | — |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | Feb | -0.0370 | -0.0594 to -0.0156 | 18/24 | 0.0011 | 0.0053 | 0.0588 | -0.0359 | ✓ |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | Mar | -0.0221 | -0.0357 to -0.0085 | 16/24 | 0.0024 | 0.0097 | 0.1304 | -0.0260 | ✓ |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | Apr | -0.0006 | -0.0037 to +0.0028 | 14/24 | 0.3640 | 0.7281 | 1.0000 | -0.0055 | — |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | May | -0.0040 | -0.0077 to -0.0006 | 16/24 | 0.0190 | 0.0571 | 0.9708 | -0.0005 | — |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | FMAM | -0.0006 | -0.0044 to +0.0032 | 10/24 | 0.3933 | 0.7281 | 1.0000 | -0.0036 | — |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | Feb | +0.0057 | -0.0519 to +0.0653 | 11/24 | 0.5723 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.1099 | — |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | Mar | -0.0031 | -0.0360 to +0.0291 | 12/24 | 0.4265 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.0147 | — |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | Apr | +0.0109 | -0.0018 to +0.0266 | 8/24 | 0.9177 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.0072 | — |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | May | +0.0034 | -0.0066 to +0.0131 | 9/24 | 0.7404 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.0017 | — |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | FMAM | +0.0125 | +0.0003 to +0.0259 | 11/24 | 0.9621 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.0020 | — |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | Feb | -0.0127 | -0.0666 to +0.0408 | 11/24 | 0.3246 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.0386 | — |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | Mar | -0.0065 | -0.0370 to +0.0226 | 11/24 | 0.3405 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.0180 | — |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | Apr | +0.0148 | -0.0005 to +0.0334 | 8/24 | 0.9457 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.0066 | — |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | May | +0.0047 | -0.0062 to +0.0149 | 9/24 | 0.7985 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.0017 | — |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | FMAM | +0.0176 | +0.0044 to +0.0315 | 9/24 | 0.9879 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.0083 | — |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | Feb | +0.0579 | -0.0184 to +0.1357 | 9/24 | 0.9180 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.1757 | — |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | Mar | +0.0200 | -0.0265 to +0.0668 | 9/24 | 0.7928 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.0130 | — |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | Apr | +0.0166 | +0.0037 to +0.0305 | 10/24 | 0.9878 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.0127 | — |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | May | +0.0100 | -0.0039 to +0.0244 | 8/24 | 0.9054 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.0042 | — |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | FMAM | +0.0227 | +0.0057 to +0.0405 | 7/24 | 0.9892 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.0069 | — |
| CDF-transform | Feb | +0.0194 | -0.0382 to +0.0800 | 12/24 | 0.7331 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.1083 | — |
| CDF-transform | Mar | +0.0028 | -0.0311 to +0.0367 | 12/24 | 0.5622 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.0096 | — |
| CDF-transform | Apr | +0.0127 | -0.0011 to +0.0296 | 8/24 | 0.9353 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.0054 | — |
| CDF-transform | May | +0.0057 | -0.0038 to +0.0148 | 9/24 | 0.8763 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | +0.0040 | — |
| CDF-transform | FMAM | +0.0158 | +0.0039 to +0.0297 | 10/24 | 0.9876 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | -0.0018 | — |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | Feb | +0.0000 | +0.0000 to +0.0000 | 0/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | — (variant) | +0.0000 | — |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | Mar | +0.0000 | +0.0000 to +0.0000 | 0/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | — (variant) | +0.0000 | — |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | Apr | +0.0000 | +0.0000 to +0.0000 | 0/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | — (variant) | +0.0000 | — |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | May | +0.0000 | +0.0000 to +0.0000 | 0/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | — (variant) | +0.0000 | — |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | FMAM | +0.0000 | +0.0000 to +0.0000 | 0/24 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | — (variant) | +0.0000 | — |
Diagnostics
How often limits, caps and fallbacks act
| Method | Target | Activated (share of the corrected area, or of members / cells for events) |
|---|---|---|
| Linear Scaling | Feb | mean fallback: 0.0% of the area |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | Feb | sd fallback: 0.2% of the area; ratio lower limit: 31.5% of the area; ratio upper limit: 2.7% of the area; clipped at zero: 5.1% |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | Mar | ratio lower limit: 3.8% of the area; ratio upper limit: 5.5% of the area; clipped at zero: 2.4% |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | Apr | ratio lower limit: 0.3% of the area; ratio upper limit: 4.7% of the area; clipped at zero: 0.4% |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | May | ratio lower limit: 0.2% of the area; ratio upper limit: 4.3% of the area; clipped at zero: 0.4% |
| Mean-Variance Scaling (operational) | FMAM | ratio lower limit: 0.1% of the area; ratio upper limit: 3.3% of the area; clipped at zero: 0.0% |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | Feb | sd fallback: 0.2% of the area; clipped at zero: 1.4% |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | Mar | clipped at zero: 1.4% |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | Apr | clipped at zero: 0.4% |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | May | clipped at zero: 0.4% |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | FMAM | clipped at zero: 0.0% |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | Feb | ratio lower limit: 30.0% of the area; clipped at zero: 0.8% |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | Mar | ratio lower limit: 0.5% of the area; ratio upper limit: 0.1% of the area; clipped at zero: 0.5% |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | Apr | ratio lower limit: 0.1% of the area; clipped at zero: 0.1% |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | May | ratio lower limit: 0.0% of the area; ratio upper limit: 0.0% of the area; clipped at zero: 0.0% |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | FMAM | ratio lower limit: 0.0% of the area; clipped at zero: 0.0% |
| Power Transformation | Feb | b at bound: 12.6% of the area |
| Delta Change | Feb | mean fallback: 0.0% of the area; ratio capped: 18.2% |
| Delta Change | Mar | ratio capped: 1.1% |
| Local Intensity Scaling | Feb | always wet: 83.0% of the area; never wet: 2.8% of the area |
| Local Intensity Scaling | Mar | always wet: 88.6% of the area |
| Local Intensity Scaling | Apr | always wet: 85.7% of the area |
| Local Intensity Scaling | May | always wet: 90.6% of the area |
| Local Intensity Scaling | FMAM | always wet: 100.0% of the area |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | Feb | model has dry: 100.0% of the area; obs has dry: 17.0% of the area; extrapolated: 0.4% |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | Mar | model has dry: 97.8% of the area; obs has dry: 11.4% of the area; extrapolated: 0.2% |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | Apr | model has dry: 59.8% of the area; obs has dry: 14.3% of the area; extrapolated: 0.3% |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | May | model has dry: 24.9% of the area; obs has dry: 9.4% of the area; extrapolated: 0.3% |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | FMAM | model has dry: 3.0% of the area; extrapolated: 0.4% |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | Feb | gamma fallback: 3.6% of the area; model has dry: 100.0% of the area; obs has dry: 17.0% of the area |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | Mar | gamma fallback: 0.1% of the area; model has dry: 97.8% of the area; obs has dry: 11.4% of the area |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | Apr | model has dry: 59.8% of the area; obs has dry: 14.3% of the area |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | May | model has dry: 24.9% of the area; obs has dry: 9.4% of the area |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | FMAM | model has dry: 3.0% of the area |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | Feb | model has dry: 100.0% of the area; obs has dry: 17.0% of the area; ratio capped: 18.2%; extrapolated: 0.1% |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | Mar | model has dry: 97.8% of the area; obs has dry: 11.4% of the area; ratio capped: 1.1%; extrapolated: 0.2% |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | Apr | model has dry: 59.8% of the area; obs has dry: 14.3% of the area; extrapolated: 0.2% |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | May | model has dry: 24.9% of the area; obs has dry: 9.4% of the area; extrapolated: 0.2% |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | FMAM | model has dry: 3.0% of the area; extrapolated: 0.2% |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | Feb | model has dry: 100.0% of the area; obs has dry: 17.0% of the area; low denominator: 42.4%; ratio capped: 4.6% |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | Mar | model has dry: 97.8% of the area; obs has dry: 11.4% of the area; low denominator: 18.4%; ratio capped: 0.8% |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | Apr | model has dry: 59.8% of the area; obs has dry: 14.3% of the area; low denominator: 2.6%; ratio capped: 0.2% |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | May | model has dry: 24.9% of the area; obs has dry: 9.4% of the area; low denominator: 2.2%; ratio capped: 0.0% |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | FMAM | model has dry: 3.0% of the area; ratio capped: 0.1% |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | Feb | gamma fallback: 6.3% of the area; linear scaling fallback: 17.6% |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | Mar | gamma fallback: 0.1% of the area; linear scaling fallback: 0.4% |
| CDF-transform | Feb | mean fallback: 0.0% of the area; at forecast range edge: 0.6% |
| CDF-transform | Mar | at forecast range edge: 1.0% |
| CDF-transform | Apr | at forecast range edge: 2.4% |
| CDF-transform | May | at forecast range edge: 4.8% |
| CDF-transform | FMAM | at forecast range edge: 2.2% |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | Feb | sd fallback: 0.2% of the area; ratio lower limit: 31.5% of the area; ratio upper limit: 2.7% of the area; clipped at zero: 5.1% |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | Mar | ratio lower limit: 3.8% of the area; ratio upper limit: 5.5% of the area; clipped at zero: 2.4% |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | Apr | ratio lower limit: 0.3% of the area; ratio upper limit: 4.7% of the area; clipped at zero: 0.4% |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | May | ratio lower limit: 0.2% of the area; ratio upper limit: 4.3% of the area; clipped at zero: 0.4% |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | FMAM | ratio lower limit: 0.1% of the area; ratio upper limit: 3.3% of the area; clipped at zero: 0.0% |
Where the amount differences come from: cells grouped by their training-year climate
Each cell is grouped by its CHIRPS totals in the fold’s training years only: every year exactly 0 mm; every year ≤ 1 mm (not all 0); some years dry and some wet; never dry. Contributions are area-weighted CRPS differences from Mean-Variance Scaling (mm; negative favours the method) and add up to the national difference. Leave-one-year-out 1993–2016, All Ethiopia.
| Method | Total Δ CRPS | all 0 mm 0.0% of area | all ≤ 1 mm 2.8% of area | mixed 14.2% of area | always wet 83.0% of area |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linear Scaling | +1.865 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.021 | +1.844 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | -0.042 | +0.000 | -0.002 | -0.006 | -0.033 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | -0.184 | +0.000 | -0.001 | -0.012 | -0.171 |
| Power Transformation | +0.261 | +0.000 | -0.001 | +0.000 | +0.262 |
| Delta Change | +1.024 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.015 | +1.038 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | +1.377 | +0.000 | +0.001 | +0.017 | +1.358 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | -0.056 | +0.000 | +0.001 | +0.013 | -0.071 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | -0.031 | +0.000 | +0.001 | +0.017 | -0.049 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | +1.764 | +0.000 | +0.001 | +0.017 | +1.746 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | +0.562 | +0.000 | +0.001 | -0.010 | +0.571 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | +2.177 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.009 | +2.167 |
| CDF-transform | +4.174 | +0.000 | +0.005 | +0.142 | +4.028 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Method | Total Δ CRPS | all 0 mm 0.0% of area | all ≤ 1 mm 0.0% of area | mixed 11.4% of area | always wet 88.6% of area |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linear Scaling | +1.144 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.014 | +1.158 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | -0.027 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.003 | -0.030 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | -0.341 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.018 | -0.323 |
| Power Transformation | -0.281 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.015 | -0.266 |
| Delta Change | +0.436 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.019 | +0.455 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | +0.973 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.010 | +0.983 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | -0.107 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.006 | -0.101 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | -0.312 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.007 | -0.305 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | +1.105 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.007 | +1.098 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | +1.595 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.001 | +1.593 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | +1.433 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.003 | +1.429 |
| CDF-transform | +1.573 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.006 | +1.567 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Method | Total Δ CRPS | all 0 mm 0.0% of area | all ≤ 1 mm 0.0% of area | mixed 14.3% of area | always wet 85.7% of area |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linear Scaling | +0.314 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.059 | +0.255 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | -0.005 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.000 | -0.004 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | -0.050 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.008 | -0.041 |
| Power Transformation | +0.026 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.008 | +0.034 |
| Delta Change | -0.030 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.044 | +0.013 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | +0.286 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.063 | +0.222 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | +0.335 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.016 | +0.319 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | -0.036 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.018 | -0.019 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | +0.680 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.048 | +0.631 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | +1.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.117 | +0.883 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | +1.036 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.077 | +0.959 |
| CDF-transform | +0.839 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.098 | +0.742 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Method | Total Δ CRPS | all 0 mm 0.0% of area | all ≤ 1 mm 0.0% of area | mixed 9.4% of area | always wet 90.6% of area |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linear Scaling | +0.233 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.012 | +0.245 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | +0.012 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.012 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | -0.078 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.024 | -0.054 |
| Power Transformation | -0.140 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.058 | -0.083 |
| Delta Change | -0.252 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.010 | -0.242 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | +0.223 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.002 | +0.221 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | +0.180 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.055 | +0.235 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | -0.062 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.046 | -0.016 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | +0.354 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.008 | +0.362 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | +0.414 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.001 | +0.416 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | +0.546 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.007 | +0.553 |
| CDF-transform | +0.488 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.009 | +0.480 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Method | Total Δ CRPS | all 0 mm 0.0% of area | all ≤ 1 mm 0.0% of area | mixed 0.0% of area | always wet 100.0% of area |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linear Scaling | +0.825 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.825 |
| Variance Scaling (unbounded) | +0.026 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.026 |
| Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling | -0.063 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.063 |
| Power Transformation | +0.085 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.085 |
| Delta Change | +0.166 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.166 |
| Local Intensity Scaling | +0.787 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.787 |
| Empirical Quantile Mapping | +0.550 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.550 |
| Gamma Quantile Mapping | -0.069 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.069 |
| Detrended Quantile Mapping | +1.436 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +1.436 |
| Quantile Delta Mapping | +2.095 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +2.095 |
| Scaled Distribution Mapping | +2.638 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +2.638 |
| CDF-transform | +1.721 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +1.721 |
| MVS with all-zero guard (variant) | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 |